U.S. Stock Outlook | Futures for the three major indices rise together, non-farm payrolls may face significant revisions tonight, Apple event approaching

1. As of September 9th (Tuesday) before the US stock market opens, the three major US stock index futures are all up. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.15%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.12%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.16%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 0.64%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.22%, the French CAC 40 index is up 0.21%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.06%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 0.95%, priced at $62.85 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 0.88%, priced at $66.60 per barrel.

Market News

Employment data may face a downward revision of millions, has the US labor market stagnated? Economists predict that when the US government releases the preliminary non-farm employment benchmark forecast on Tuesday, it may revise the employment level down by as much as 1.25 million jobs for the 12 months ending in March. This employment data revision follows last Friday's report, which showed that job growth in August was nearly stagnant, and that June saw a decrease in economic jobs for the first time in four and a half years. This indicates that the labor market was already in trouble before President Donald Trump's aggressive import tariff policies were implemented. The White House's immigration crackdown has weakened labor supply, while the shift of companies towards artificial intelligence tools and automation is suppressing labor demand.

Contrary to the Trump administration! Goldman Sachs CEO: The Federal Reserve does not need to cut rates quickly. Goldman Sachs Group CEO David Solomon stated that the Federal Reserve does not need to cut rates quickly. This contrasts with the Trump administration's pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy. Solomon said at the Barclays Financial Services Conference, "From a risk appetite perspective, I don't feel that the current policy rate is particularly restrictive." He pointed out that investor enthusiasm in the market is currently on the overly excited side. According to futures pricing, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points at next week's meeting, and expectations for further rate cuts before the end of the year are also rising. JPMorgan stated in a report that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates as expected at the meeting on September 17, it could turn into a "sell the fact" event, where investors may choose to take profits.

With the Federal Reserve's meeting approaching next week, bets on "50 basis points" remain despite weak non-farm data. Although the majority opinion on Wall Street believes that the threshold for a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve is high, traders have not ruled out the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut at next week's meeting From the most likely scenario reflected in the current market pricing, the Federal Reserve may lower the federal funds rate (overnight lending rate) by 25 basis points on September 17. According to the CME Group's "FedWatch Tool" (which calculates the probability of Federal Reserve policy actions through 30-day federal funds futures contracts), the market's expectation for a "25 basis point rate cut" was about 88% on Monday afternoon. However, this also means that there is a small probability that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may continue the approach from the September 2024 meeting and choose to cut rates by 50 basis points, with the current probability at 12%.

Trump's tariff policy backfires, U.S. agricultural trade deficit hits record high. In July, the U.S. agricultural trade deficit further widened, highlighting the challenges faced by President Donald Trump in reversing this trend. Data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Monday showed that agricultural exports in July were $4.97 billion less than imports, a gap that widened by 9% compared to the same period last year, setting a record for the month. This brought the agricultural trade deficit for the first seven months of this year to an unprecedented $33.6 billion.

Castle Investment economist: U.S. economy in a "fragile" balance state. Angel Ubide, a top economist at Castle Investment, stated that the U.S. economy and labor market are in a fragile balance state, with long-term U.S. Treasury yields being a key indicator to assess whether this situation is deteriorating. Ubide, who is the head of fixed income and macroeconomic research at the hedge fund company, said in an interview last week: "The economy is on the good side of a fragile balance, especially in the labor market, but we are close to the edge." "Our economy is more or less resilient, the unemployment rate remains low, consumer health has not collapsed, and monetary policy tends to be accommodative," he referred to it as "a satisfactory combination."

Individual Stock News

Apple (AAPL.US) press conference tonight! iPhone 17 series to debut with ten new products. At 1 AM Beijing time on September 10 (Wednesday), Apple will hold its fall product launch event. In addition to the highly anticipated iPhone 17 series, it is expected to launch ten new products including Apple Watch Ultra 3, Apple Watch Series 11, Apple Watch SE 3, the new generation iPad Pro, Vision Pro, Apple TV 4K fourth generation, HomePod mini second generation, AirTag second generation, AirPods Pro 3, and Studio Display 2, covering various devices such as watches, headphones, TVs, and monitors, involving performance upgrades, functional optimizations, and design improvements.

Anglo American acquires Teck Resources (TECK.US), creating a new $50 billion mining giant. This transaction will create a company with a market value of over $50 billion, becoming one of the largest mining mergers in over a decade. It is estimated that in the merged new company, Anglo American shareholders will hold 62.4% of the shares, while Teck Resources shareholders will hold 37.6% If based on the closing price of Teck Resources on Monday, the transaction premium rate reaches 17%. However, Anglo American will distribute a special dividend of $4.5 billion to its investors before the merger, so both parties emphasized to shareholders on Tuesday that this transaction is essentially a zero-premium acquisition.

Hello Group (MOMO.US) Q2 revenue decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, Momo's paid user count halved to 3.5 million. Hello Group's Q2 net revenue was 2.6204 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, with a net loss attributable to the company of 140 million yuan, compared to a net profit of 397.8 million yuan in the same period of 2024; the net loss per ADS was 0.84 yuan, while the earnings per ADS in the same period last year were 2.11 yuan. In June 2025, the monthly active users ("MAU") of the Tantan app were 10.2 million, down from 12.9 million in June 2024. In Q2 2025, the total paid users of the Momo app were 3.5 million, compared to 7.2 million in the same period last year. Tantan had 700,000 paid users in Q2 2025, down from 1 million in the same period last year. The net cash provided by operating activities in Q2 2025 was 250.1 million yuan (34.9 million USD), compared to 475.2 million yuan in Q2 2024.

Google (GOOGL.US) is once again caught in an antitrust whirlpool! Sued by advertising exchange platform PubMatic for billions in damages. Google has been sued by advertising exchange platform PubMatic, which accuses it of illegally monopolizing the advertising technology market and is seeking billions in damages. Google stated that the lawsuit is "baseless" and emphasized that advertisers and websites choose its tools because they are "efficient, affordable, and easy to use." PubMatic CEO Rajeev Goel stated that the earlier court ruling that found Google illegally maintained a monopoly in the advertising technology field "is significant but not comprehensive enough." He mentioned that this lawsuit is not just about money, but about ensuring the online advertising market can operate normally. Rajeev Goel said, "For years, we have felt that no matter how good the innovation is, there is always an obstacle blocking our way. This obstacle is not the limitation of our technology, but Google's illegal monopoly."

Amazon (AMZN.US) invests in Latin American delivery company Rappi, challenging local e-commerce giant MercadoLibre (MELI.US). Amazon has invested in Colombian delivery company Rappi. This strategic partnership combines the retail and technology infrastructure of the e-commerce giant with the most well-known "last mile" delivery company in Latin America. This initial investment—according to a person familiar with the deal—was a $25 million convertible bond, which is relatively small for Amazon. However, the deal gives the Seattle-based company the right to purchase up to 12% of Rappi's shares through warrants upon meeting certain milestone conditions, although these numbers may vary.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Next day at 04:30 Beijing time: U.S. API crude oil inventory change for the week ending September 5 (10,000 barrels) Beijing time 22:00: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the annual benchmark revision data for non-farm payrolls.

The next day, Beijing time 00:00: EIA releases the Monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report.

The next day, Beijing time 01:00: Apple Inc. Fall New Product Launch Event.

Earnings Forecast

Wednesday morning: Oracle (ORCL.US), Synopsys (SNPS.US)