Analyst Slashes Nvidia Price Target By 5%, Citing Intensifying AI Chip Rivalry From Broadcom And Google
Citi analyst Atif Malik has downgraded Nvidia's price target from $220 to $210, citing increased competition in the AI chip market from Broadcom and Google. Despite the downgrade, the new target suggests a 19.7% upside from the current share price. Malik predicts Nvidia's 2026 GPU sales will be about 4% lower than previously estimated, with a potential $12 billion impact on sales due to rising competition. Broadcom's collaboration with Google and OpenAI's deal to co-design AI chips further challenge Nvidia's market dominance.
Nvidia Corporation NVDA has seen its price target slashed by Citi due to increasing competition in the artificial intelligence (AI) chip market.
Citi Downgrades Nvidia to $210 Amid Rising Chip Competition
Citi analyst Atif Malik has downgraded Nvidia’s stock from $220 to $210, citing the rise of rival AI chipmakers, CNBC reported. This new target still suggests a 19.7% upside from the current share price.
Check out the current price of NVDA stock here.
Malik’s decision was influenced by the recent strong performance of Broadcom Inc. AVGO, a major player in the AI chip market. The company’s Q3 results showed significant growth, and they secured a $10 billion order for custom AI chips from an undisclosed client.
Malik predicts that Nvidia’s 2026 GPU sales will be about 4% lower than previously estimated due to increasing competition from Broadcom, particularly from Google’s TPUs. He also noted that Nvidia’s top two clients accounted for 39% of its total revenue in the July quarter, raising concerns about the company’s customer base.
“We estimate ~$12B GPU sales impact to Nvidia's 2026 sales from the above deals,” stated the analyst note.
Malik stated that they had previously expected AI XPU chip sales to outpace GPU sales in 2026 and viewed Broadcom's comments on faster XPU adoption—likely driven by Google's shift in indirectly competing with Nvidia to provide compute capacity to rivals such as Meta, OpenAI, and Oracle—as a risk they had recently flagged.
Broadcom Emerges As A Key Rival To Nvidia In AI Chips
The AI chip market has been heating up, with Broadcom emerging as a formidable competitor to Nvidia. Broadcom’s collaboration with Google GOOG (GOOGL) on the Ironwood TPU project is expected to generate over $15 billion in revenue, solidifying Broadcom’s position in the AI acceleration game.
Moreover, Nvidia’s grip on the AI ecosystem has been further challenged by OpenAI’s $10 billion deal with Broadcom to co-design and mass-produce its own AI chips. This move signals a significant shift away from Nvidia’s AI hardware dominance and has the potential to reshape the AI hardware landscape.
Despite these challenges, major Chinese technology firms continue to seek out Nvidia’s AI chips. This demand, despite Beijing’s pressure to adopt domestic alternatives, could be a potential source of upside for Nvidia if GPU shipments to China resume.
Nvidia's next major event is CEO Jensen Huang's GTC keynote, set for October 28.
Benzinga Edge Stock Rankings shows that Nvidia had a strong price trend over the medium and long term, and a weak trend over the short term. Check the detailed report here to assess the other ratings.
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