Gary Black Predicts Tesla's Q3 Deliveries Would Beat Estimates By 10-15%, Questions Affordable EV Plans Amid Robotics, Autonomous Push

Future Fund LLC's managing director, Gary Black, thinks that Tesla Inc.'s TSLA third-quarter deliveries would beat analyst estimates, predicting a 10-15% YoY surge.

Third Quarter Tesla Deliveries To Be A Record, Says Gary Black

The investor shared his thoughts on the social media platform X on Tuesday, predicting that Tesla deliveries would beat third-quarter Wall Street estimates of 431,000 unit deliveries by a record margin due to the expiring $7,500 Federal EV Credit.

Black then talked about possibilities in the fourth quarter for Elon Musk's EV giant. "Will the new more affordable Tesla EV set for launch in 4Q and priced at ~$35K be a new form factor," that would allow Tesla to "expand TAM," or just a stripped-down Model Y with "a smaller battery," Black questioned.

It's worth noting that an unknown compact Tesla vehicle, draped in coverings, was spotted recently at the company's Gigafactory in Texas by a drone operator, leading to speculation of a possible new entry into the Tesla lineup.

The investor also shed some light on the company's Robotaxi and Optimus robot efforts, saying that EV sales "may not matter" but cautioned that its vehicles still generate over "80% of Tesla profits," which would make it key for the company's valuation.

Elon Musk's Pay Package, FSD Revisions

The comments follow the Tesla board unveiling a $1 trillion CEO compensation package for Musk, which has been slammed by politicians like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt), calling it "grossly immoral."

However, the pay package has been seen in a positive light by analysts like Gene Munster, who thinks that the numbers highlighted in the package are both "mind blowing and achievable," as well as investment bank Morgan Stanley's Tesla bull Adam Jonas, who hailed it as a good deal for investors.

Meanwhile, Tesla also quietly revised the definition of FSD or Full Self-Driving system on its official website, stating that the FSD system does not make a vehicle capable of autonomous driving and that the system requires human supervision.

It's also worth noting that a milestone mentioned in the SEC filing of the pay package stipulates that Musk must lead Tesla to gain over 10 million active FSD subscriptions to qualify for one of the 12 tranches highlighted in the package.

Robotaxi Expansion And Robotics Push

Elsewhere, Tesla also officially rolled out its Robotaxi app on the Apple Inc. AAPL App Store, where it quickly climbed the download charts. The company also announced the Robotaxi expansion in Austin, where it will now also operate on the highways.

The company also moved the onboard safety operator to the driver's seat following the expansion, in what could possibly be a move to circumvent Texas' newly approved autonomous driving regulations.

Tesla unveiled the company's Master Plan IV, which shifts its focus towards artificial intelligence and robotics. Following its release, Musk predicted that the Tesla Optimus robot would represent over 80% of Tesla's future value, reiterating the shift in focus for the EV giant.

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• Tesla’s US EV Market Share Dips Below 40% For First Time Since 2017

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