CICC: The pre-export effect in August has faded, and the price contribution has marginally declined

In August 2025, exports in US dollars increased by 4.4% year-on-year (compared to 7.2% in July), while imports rose by 1.3% year-on-year (compared to 4.1% in July), both lower than market expectations (Bloomberg's expectations for exports and imports were +5.4% and +4.4%, respectively). The base has risen, and external demand remains overall stable. This can also be confirmed by the export structure by region. We believe that the main contributing factor to the expanded decline in exports to the United States in August may be the fading of the export front-loading effect. On the import side, the price contribution has marginally declined, and domestic demand still requires policy support. We expect that as the base decreases in September, year-on-year exports may improve.

The base has risen, and external demand remains overall stable. In terms of the base, the export replenishment effect after last year's typhoon has led to an increase in the base in August. In terms of demand, the manufacturing PMI of developed economies rose from 49.2% in July to 50.9% in August, while China's manufacturing PMI new export orders increased by 0.1 percentage points month-on-month to 47.2%.

This can also be confirmed by the export structure by region. The decline in exports to the United States in August expanded further from -21.7% in July to -33.1%, and the overall export pullback increased from -3.3 percentage points in July to -5.1 percentage points, while China's year-on-year export growth to non-US regions such as the EU and ASEAN remained robust. The marginal impact of tariff easing from the Geneva talks on exports has already been fully reflected in the earlier period, while the average tariff rate of about 38% imposed by the United States on China remains significantly higher than the 2024 level. Coupled with the fading of the export front-loading effect and the restructuring of some industry supply chains, the year-on-year decline in exports to the United States in July and August has continued to expand.

We believe that the main contributing factor to the expanded decline in exports to the United States in August may be the fading of the export front-loading effect. In August, South Korea's year-on-year export growth to the United States decreased from 1.4% in July to -7.8%. Although there is also the factor of the United States raising the tariff rate on South Korea from 10% to 15%, the increase is relatively limited. Therefore, the marginal decline in South Korea's year-on-year export growth to the United States in August compared to July is mainly due to the fading of the previous export front-loading effect, and the marginal decline in South Korea being close to that of China also indirectly reflects that the expanded decline in China's exports to the United States in August is mainly due to the fading of the export front-loading effect. In August, China's labor-intensive product exports, which are more susceptible to tariffs and export front-loading effects, fell by 6.6% year-on-year (compared to -0.7% in July), while Vietnam's textile, clothing, and footwear exports also declined year-on-year from 5.0% and 3.3% in July to -4.8% and -3.9% in August, indicating that the decline in growth rates of labor-intensive products in both China and Vietnam may be influenced by the common factor of fading export front-loading effects. In August, China's electromechanical products and high-tech products grew year-on-year by 7.6% and 8.9% (compared to 8.0% and 4.2% in July), showing overall robust growth. For example, in August, China's mobile phone exports fell by 18.9% year-on-year (compared to -21.8% in July). Although it still declined year-on-year, the rate of decline has narrowed. Correspondingly, Vietnam's mobile phone exports grew by 21.9% year-on-year in August (compared to 2.2% in July), showing significant marginal improvement The contribution of prices has marginally declined, and domestic demand still awaits policy support. In August, the prices of bulk commodities saw a marginal decline, with the CRB index dropping from 5.3% in July to 4.6% year-on-year. The year-on-year growth rate of import value/import freight volume also decreased from 2.7% in July to 0.1%. The year-on-year growth rate of the import quantity of major commodities has also mostly marginally declined, indicating that domestic demand still requires policy support. In August, the year-on-year growth rates of the import quantities of major raw materials such as grain, copper ore, crude oil, plastics, and integrated circuits all showed a marginal decline compared to July.

Chart 1: Monthly Export Value

Source: Wind, CICC Research Department

Chart 2: Monthly Import Value

Source: Wind, CICC Research Department

Chart 3: Monthly Export Value to the U.S.

Source: Wind, CICC Research Department

Chart 4: Year-on-Year Export Growth Contribution by Region

Source: Wind, CICC Research Department

Chart 5: Year-on-Year Export Growth to the U.S. from China and South Korea

Source: WIND, CICC Research Department

Chart 6: Year-on-Year Export Growth of Major Commodities from Vietnam

Source: WIND, CICC Research Department

Chart 7: Year-on-Year Growth Rates of Exports and Imports by Major Regions (Unit: %)

Source: CEIC, CICC Research Department Chart 8: Year-on-Year Growth Rate of Major Commodity Export Amounts (Unit: %)

Note: * Represents major categories of goods, or includes related goods already listed in this table.

Source: CEIC, CICC Research Department

Chart 9: Year-on-Year Growth Rate of Major Commodity Imports (Unit: %)

Note: * Represents major categories of goods, or includes related goods already listed in this table.

Source: CEIC, CICC Research Department

Authors: Zheng Yuchi, Zhang Wenlang, Source: CICC, Original Title: "The Diminishing Effect of Export Frontloading - Import and Export Review for August 2025"

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