Bessent provides "forward guidance": The US economy will "accelerate significantly" in the fourth quarter, and manufacturing "cannot build factories in the blink of an eye."

U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra's latest forecast predicts that the U.S. economy will experience "significant acceleration" in the fourth quarter. This optimistic expectation stands in stark contrast to the current weak employment performance. Becerra also predicts that employment in manufacturing and construction will improve as corporate capital expenditures increase, but acknowledges that recovery will take time.

On September 7, according to media reports, Becerra emphasized during an interview on NBC's "Meet the Press" that "President Trump was elected for change, and we will advance economic policies to get the economy back on track. I believe we will see significant acceleration by the fourth quarter."

Becerra's statement comes as the White House faces criticism due to the latest non-farm payroll data showing a significant slowdown in job growth. Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on September 5 indicated that only 22,000 jobs were added in August, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, marking the fourth consecutive month of disappointing employment data.

In response to warnings from economists at Moody's Analytics and other institutions about slowing hiring trends and job losses in manufacturing, Becerra believes that recent data contains noise and may face revisions, pointing out that August is the "noisiest month" for employment data. He also criticized the Federal Reserve's policies as being too lagging. Becerra further predicted that the annual revision of non-farm data to be released on September 9 could erase up to 800,000 jobs reported during the Biden administration.

Regarding the issue of manufacturing employment, Becerra acknowledged that the U.S. has lost 42,000 manufacturing jobs since the Trump administration announced comprehensive tariff policies in April. In defense of government policies amid questions about the decline in manufacturing jobs, Becerra stated that manufacturing recovery takes time, emphasizing that "we cannot build factories overnight."

Treasury Secretary Questions Data Reliability, Criticizes Federal Reserve Policies

In light of the weak employment data, Becerra chose to question the accuracy of the data itself. In an interview with NBC, he stated:

"Let's look at the validity of this number. August is the noisiest month of the year, and typically, the revisions in August are the largest. That’s why we need good data."

Becerra also pointed fingers at the Federal Reserve, echoing Trump's previous criticisms of Fed Chairman Powell. He stated:

"If these numbers are indeed accurate, it indicates that President Trump’s view of the Federal Reserve is correct. They are reacting too slowly. Due to the poor data, they should have started cutting rates back in June."

As the annual revision of non-farm data approaches, Becerra hinted that the scale of the data revision could be substantial:

"The revisions we will receive next week could be as high as a downward revision of 800,000 jobs. I’m not sure what those data collectors have been doing, but we need good data."

Manufacturing Recovery Requires Patience, Record Investment Intentions

In response to concerns about job losses in manufacturing, Becerra emphasized the time cycle for policy effectiveness. "It’s just a matter of a few months. In the manufacturing sector, as you know, we cannot build factories overnight," he stated.

Becerra pointed out that companies are currently seeing "record investment intentions," with plans to build production facilities in the U.S. He expects this will first bring job opportunities in construction, followed by manufacturing jobsThe finance minister revealed that the Ministry of Finance receives about two management teams every day, "the vast majority of companies tell us they plan to increase capital expenditures and plan to increase employment. We are seeing record amounts, with a record number of foreign direct investments."

He acknowledged that companies like John Deere are facing difficulties due to tariff policies, but emphasized that "for every John Deere, we have companies telling us 'tariffs have helped our business. We are increasing capital expenditures, and we will increase employment.'"

In the interview, the NBC host stated that companies such as John Deere, Nike, Black & Decker, and the three major automakers have warned investors that tariffs are adding unexpected costs of hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars. Goldman Sachs estimates that 86% of tariff costs are ultimately borne by American businesses and consumers, but Besant completely rejected these conclusions