Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | The central bank has increased its gold holdings for the 10th consecutive month. Goldman Sachs: International gold prices may soar to nearly $5,000 per ounce (with related stocks)

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, on September 7, the People's Bank of China announced that as of the end of August, China's gold reserves stood at 74.02 million ounces, an increase of 60,000 ounces from 73.96 million ounces at the end of July, marking the 10th consecutive month of gold accumulation. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Dongfang Jincheng, stated that the proportion of gold in China's official international reserve assets is significantly lower than the global average. From the perspective of optimizing the structure of international reserves, steadily promoting the internationalization of the renminbi, and responding to changes in the current international environment, the future direction for the central bank is still to increase gold holdings.

On September 3, Tavi Costa, partner and macro strategist at asset management firm Crescat Capital, compiled and released data showing that as gold prices hit new records, the proportion of gold in central bank reserves, excluding the Federal Reserve, surpassed U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996. Costa believes this turning point may mark "the beginning of the most significant global rebalancing in modern history." This reflects a strategic adjustment in reserve asset structures by central banks around the world: shifting from U.S. dollar bonds to physical assets like gold.

In terms of international gold prices, on September 6, spot gold rose by 1.15% to $3,586 per ounce, reaching a new high, and at one point during the day, it broke through $3,600 per ounce, following a previous breakthrough of $3,545 per ounce on the 3rd; COMEX gold futures rose by 0.92% to $3,639.8 per ounce. On the same day, some gold brand jewelry prices had already surpassed 1,050 yuan per gram. Chow Sang Sang's 24K gold jewelry price was 1,059 yuan per gram; Lao Miao's 24K gold jewelry price was 1,053 yuan per gram; Chow Tai Fook's 24K gold (jewelry and craft categories) price was 1,060 yuan per gram.

So far this year, gold has been one of the strongest performing major commodities, with an increase of over 30%. The recent rise in international gold prices is mainly attributed to central bank accumulation and bets on the Federal Reserve's impending interest rate cuts. Recently, Trump's actions to strengthen control over the Federal Reserve, including pushing for the dismissal of board member Lisa Cook, have also provided further support for gold prices.

According to analysis by Dong Ximiao, chief researcher at Zhaolian, after the release of the U.S. core inflation data for July, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have significantly increased. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently signaled a potential adjustment in monetary policy stance, indicating that a rate cut would mean lower returns on U.S. dollar assets, enhancing gold's attractiveness as an asset allocation.

Dong Ximiao stated that the recent dismissal of a Federal Reserve board member by President Trump has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, and this policy uncertainty has led investors to turn to gold as a "financial safety net." Data shows that amid various risk-averse sentiments, inflows into gold ETFs have significantly increased.

Goldman Sachs believes that if the credibility of the Federal Reserve is damaged, and investors convert a small portion of their U.S. Treasury holdings into gold, international gold prices could soar to nearly $5,000 per ounce. The baseline forecast is that by mid-2026, it will rise to $4,000 per ounce; in a tail risk scenario, it could reach $4,500 per ounce; even if only 1% of privately held U.S. Treasuries are converted to gold, gold prices could surge to nearly $5,000 Related Concept Stocks:

Zijin Mining (02899): In the first half of 2025, Zijin Mining achieved operating revenue of 167.711 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.50%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 23.292 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 50%; this marked the first time in the company's history that mid-term net profit exceeded 20 billion yuan. During the same period, Zijin Mining's production of copper, gold, zinc (lead), and silver was 570,000 tons, 41 tons, 200,000 tons, and 223 tons, respectively, with year-on-year changes of 10%, 17%, -9%, and 6%. Thanks to the simultaneous increase in volume and price, as well as cost optimization, Zijin Mining's overall gross profit margin for mineral products increased by 3 percentage points year-on-year to 60.23%.

Zhaojin Mining (01818): In the first half of 2025, Zhaojin Mining's revenue was approximately 6.973 billion yuan, an increase of about 50.69% compared to the same period last year; net profit was approximately 1.777 billion yuan, an increase of about 144.58% year-on-year; profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 1.44 billion yuan, an increase of about 160.44% compared to the same period last year.

Shandong Gold (01787): In the first half of 2025, Shandong Gold achieved operating revenue of 56.766 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.01%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 2.808 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 102.98%. In the first half of the year, the company coordinated efforts to stabilize growth, improve quality and efficiency, promote reform, strengthen innovation, and prevent risks, achieving record highs in gold production and major economic indicators. Among them, gold production was 24.71 tons, and self-produced gold sales were 23.60 tons.

Lingbao Gold (03330): In the first half of 2025, Lingbao Gold achieved revenue of 7.793 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 82.02%. Profit attributable to shareholders was 664 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 335.28%. During the reporting period, the group produced approximately 10,821 kilograms of gold ingots, an increase of about 2,870 kilograms compared to the same period last year