After a turbulent week, top traders at Goldman Sachs remain bearish on the dollar and bullish on U.S. stocks and "value storage."

"This is a week of high-speed operation but imbalance, ultimately failing to answer some unresolved major questions."

After a week of market turbulence, Goldman Sachs hedge fund business head Tony Pasquariello stated in a client report released over the weekend that despite the mixed market data last week failing to provide clear answers for investors, he still maintains his core macro view: continue to be bearish on the dollar while being bullish on U.S. stocks and "store of value" assets represented by gold.

Wall Street's Confusion: Good and Bad News Clash, Which to Believe?

The market has just experienced a week of "roller coaster" trading, making the future economic direction and investment hotspots seem elusive, with mixed messages leaving investors puzzled.

At the beginning of the week, the S&P 500 index was close to its peak, and volatility was low, clearly pricing in an economic upturn led by tech stocks and anticipating a shift into a rate-cutting cycle. However, after a week of fluctuations, the market has not reached a unified conclusion on whether it has "priced in too much too soon."

Pasquariello believes that the true trajectory of growth is not clear to many, and there remains a significant gap between actual growth and market expectations for future growth. He focused on two core points of contention in the current market:

First, how are American consumers really doing? He admitted that based on a large amount of data released this week, the objective conclusion is that the labor market is softening. But does this mean consumer spending is collapsing?

"The answer may not be so," he wrote. Pasquariello revealed that Goldman Sachs hosted a large industry conference this week, and the general tone among corporate executives in attendance was positive, with public consumption enthusiasm "much better than expected," despite some weaknesses in areas like dining.

Second, how long can the AI hype last? Artificial Intelligence (AI) is undoubtedly the investment star of the year, but some of the hottest leading stocks have recently shown signs of fatigue, seemingly dousing this wave of enthusiasm. An internal Goldman Sachs index measuring the performance of AI leaders versus laggards (GSPUARTI) has recently lost momentum, which serves as evidence.

However, this does not mean that large tech stocks are under widespread pressure. At the same time, other tech giants like Google and Broadcom have quietly reached new stock price highs. This indicates that while the AI narrative has shown divergence, the overall strength of tech stocks remains robust; it's just that the "leaders" are changing.

The report cites analysis pointing out that a key turning point for AI trading is the slowdown in capital expenditures by "hyperscalers." In extreme cases, if capital expenditures and growth expectations revert to 2022 levels, the S&P 500 index could face a 15%-20% downside risk, but this scenario is considered unlikely.

Embrace U.S. Stocks and "Store of Value," Short the Dollar

In the face of widespread confusion in the market, Pasquariello did not hesitate and reiterated his three core trading strategies:

• Long of US equities, while acknowledging that the short-term technical situation is deteriorating, he advises investors to hedge appropriately.
• Short of dollars, and he included a chart indicating that the dollar index is at a critical technical testing point.
• Long of stores of value, emphasizing that the gold chart is "self-evident."
• He leans towards a further steepening of the yield curve in the major global economies (G-4).

He particularly emphasized his preference for "stores of value" assets, stating that "the movement of gold speaks for itself." At the same time, he believes that US equities are still worth investing in in the long term. However, he also reminded clients that short-term market technical signals are somewhat unstable and may lead to volatility, advising to hedge risks when opportunities arise.

Regarding the dollar, Pasquariello believes that the dollar will weaken. A chart in the report shows that the dollar index is currently at a very critical position—barely holding onto the long-term upward trend line since the financial crisis, which could serve as support or, if broken, could accelerate the decline.

For the yield curves of major global economies, he still tends to believe that the yield curve of G-4 countries will become steeper, but he also pointed out that this view "although some agree, has not yet formed a consensus based on global price trends."