Next week's key schedule: China and the U.S. August CPI, China's social financing data, Apple iPhone 17 launch event

September 8 - September 14 Weekly Major Financial Events Overview, all times are in Beijing time:

Next week's key focus: China's CPI, import and export, and social financing heavy economic data, U.S. August CPI and PPI data, European Central Bank interest rate decision, iPhone 17 new product launch event.

In addition, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the annual benchmark revision for non-farm employment, adjusting the total number of non-farm jobs from April 2024 to March 2025, with the market generally expecting a significant downward revision. The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party is facing a deadline for applications for early elections, which will affect the yen's movement. Oracle and Adobe will announce their earnings reports.

Economic Indicators

• U.S. August CPI Year-on-Year

Before the quiet period leading up to the Federal Reserve's September meeting, this week's employment and inflation data will become the last and most important piece of the puzzle determining its policy direction.

On September 11, the U.S. will release the August CPI report, which is the most critical inflation data before the Federal Reserve's meeting. Although the core CPI rebounded in July, the market generally believes that, against the backdrop of a cooling job market, inflationary pressures are insufficient to hinder the Federal Reserve's pace of interest rate cuts.

An article from Wall Street Insight cites Nick Timiraos, known as the "new Federal Reserve correspondent," stating that the lack of sudden acceleration in prices is likely to eliminate one obstacle to rate cuts.

Earlier this year, Federal Reserve officials were concerned that a significant increase in tariffs could push up prices, thereby triggering inflation. Although these concerns have not been completely alleviated, so far, cost pressures have more broadly permeated the entire supply chain.

While concerns about tariffs still exist, the Federal Reserve is currently facing a new challenge: job growth has cooled in recent months, raising new worries for policymakers.

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Releases Preliminary Annual Benchmark Revision for Non-Farm Employment

The market generally expects that the upcoming non-farm employment annual benchmark revision, to be announced on September 9, may reveal that the true state of the U.S. labor market is weaker than previously reported.

An article from Wall Street Insight states that Nomura Securities expects this revision to cover April 2024 to March 2025 and may result in a one-time downward revision of 600,000 to 900,000 jobs. Goldman Sachs and Standard Chartered Bank also warned that due to factors such as distortions in the "birth-death model" and overestimation of the labor force, the monthly non-farm data may have been exaggerated by 40,000 to 70,000 jobs This expectation is not unfounded, as a series of recent data shows that the U.S. job market is cooling down: the increase in ADP employment in August hit a new low since January 2025, the number of JOLTS job openings fell to the lowest level since April 2021, and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book also indicated that most businesses in the district are cautious about hiring.

Last year, it was the shocking downward revision of 818,000 jobs that directly prompted the Federal Reserve to unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September. Therefore, the market is highly concerned whether this revision will open the door for another significant rate cut. Currently, the market pricing probability for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has exceeded 90%.

• China's August CPI Data

Regarding inflation, on Wednesday, September 10, China will release its August CPI and PPI data. CICC predicts that due to the high base from the same period last year and the weak food prices this year, the year-on-year growth rate of August CPI may drop to -0.4%. Data from July showed that the year-on-year CPI had already fallen to 0, and the PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, reflecting that terminal demand remains weak. Although the core CPI in July rebounded due to a rise in service prices, high-frequency data indicates that hotel occupancy rates and prices during the summer are lower than in previous years. Regarding PPI, as expectations for anti-involution reforms have cooled, related commodity prices have retreated from high levels, and industrial product prices may continue to operate weakly.

• China's Social Financing Scale Increment from January to August

In terms of financial data, data on social financing and RMB loans for August will be released next week. Looking back at July, although the growth rate of RMB loans slowed due to seasonal factors and local debt replacement, the overall financial volume remained robust. By the end of July, the stock of social financing and M2 grew by 9% and 8.8% year-on-year, respectively, both exceeding the nominal economic growth rate. Analysts state that more importantly, the credit structure continues to optimize, with the growth rates of inclusive micro and small enterprises and medium to long-term loans in the manufacturing sector both exceeding the overall level. Meanwhile, the interest rate on newly issued corporate loans in July dropped to about 3.2%, reflecting ample credit supply and a decrease in the cost of financing for the real economy.

• China's August Import Data

In terms of foreign trade data, on Monday, September 8, China will announce its import and export data for August. In July, exports grew by 7.2% year-on-year in dollar terms, while imports increased by 4.1%. Guojin Securities stated that benefiting from competitive advantages brought by industrial upgrades, represented by capital goods, China's share of goods in regions such as Africa and the European Union is on the rise, coupled with local demand resilience, China's export share is expected to continue to increase. However, objectively speaking, the overdrawn effect of U.S. demand has already begun to appear, and re-export tariffs have also started to rise, which may lead to a decline in subsequent exports. The decline in U.S. demand will directly drag down Sino-U.S. trade and indirectly affect China's exports to ASEAN.

• European Central Bank Deposit Facility Rate

The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision on September 11, with the market generally expecting it to maintain the deposit rate at 2% for the second consecutive time.

Previously, the European Central Bank paused its rate cuts after eight consecutive reductions in July. President Lagarde recently stated that the 2% inflation target has been achieved and measures will be taken to maintain price stability. The acting governor of the Bank of Slovenia even bluntly stated that the European Central Bank's "easing cycle has ended." An article from Wall Street Journal stated that the European Central Bank has unusually listed "trade disputes" as a major source of uncertainty in its statement, indicating that it will remain cautious until the tariff policies between the U.S. and Europe become clearer.

Financial Events

• Apple holds iPhone 17 new product launch event

Apple has announced a special event themed "Supercharged Ahead" to be held at 12 AM Beijing time on September 10, where the iPhone 17 series is widely expected to be launched. Wall Street investment banks generally believe that the core focus of this launch event will be on the new product line adjustments and pricing strategies.

According to reports from Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, the iPhone 17 series will include four models, with the biggest change being a brand new ultra-thin "iPhone 17 Air" that will replace the lackluster "Plus" model. It is said that this model will be only 5.5 millimeters thick, making it the thinnest iPhone ever.

Pricing strategy is another focal point. JP Morgan predicts that the starting price for models other than the Pro version will remain unchanged. The iPhone 17 Pro is expected to eliminate the 128GB entry-level storage option, starting at 256GB, with the starting price raised from $999 to $1,099. This is a "covert" price increase strategy aimed at raising the average selling price of high-end models. The final pricing of the new iPhone 17 Air is crucial, especially in the Chinese market, as whether its price can be kept below the subsidy threshold of 6,000 yuan will directly affect its sales performance.

Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng is optimistic about the iPhone 17 series, believing that the larger base model screen, upgraded camera, and stronger A19 series processor will effectively stimulate users with older devices to upgrade, expecting to drive Apple's iPhone business revenue to achieve year-on-year growth of 5% and 7% in fiscal years 2025 and 2026, respectively. Additionally, this launch event may also bring new Apple Watch and AirPods Pro 3 models.

• Deadline for the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan to submit written applications for early elections

In Japan, a political storm is brewing. September 8 is the deadline for the Liberal Democratic Party to submit written applications for an early party leader election.

According to the Yomiuri Shimbun, if more than half of the lawmakers (172) submit written applications, an early election will be held within the party, putting Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba at risk of stepping down. Currently, 128 votes have been cast in support of holding an early leadership election.

If the motion is not passed, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will temporarily overcome the "palace coup" crisis, alleviating concerns about Japanese politics, which would be favorable for the yen. Conversely, if an early election is held, it will bring new uncertainties to Japanese politics, potentially unfavorable for the yen.

• French government holds confidence vote on budget issues A key trust vote in France could trigger a new political crisis, raising concerns among investors that France is becoming a new source of instability in the Eurozone.

According to Xinhua News Agency, French Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne stated at a press conference on the 25th that to resolve the difficulties faced by the government, he has requested the National Assembly to hold a trust vote on his government on September 8. The motion aims to force through a fiscal plan that includes €44 billion in spending cuts and tax increases. Borne reiterated that this move is intended to prevent further exacerbation of public debt risks.

However, leaders of major opposition parties in France have clearly stated they will vote against it. If a majority of lawmakers vote against, Borne's government will be forced to resign, repeating the fate of former Prime Minister Jean Castex's government last year. This political instability is rapidly translating into economic liabilities, further worsening France's already fragile fiscal situation.

Wall Street Journal reported that this move has previously led to a "double whammy" in the French market, with the CAC 40 index plummeting and the yield spread between French and German 10-year bonds soaring to a multi-month high. There are concerns that frequent political changes and high debt levels are leading France down the same path as Italy.

Financial Reports

• Oracle Financial Report

In corporate news, Oracle will release its latest financial report on Wednesday, September 10.

The company's previously released financial report and its optimistic guidance are still worth market attention. Although its fourth-quarter cloud infrastructure (IaaS) revenue slightly missed expectations, the company's management provided a very strong outlook for the future. Wall Street Journal article reported that CEO Safra Catz expects cloud infrastructure revenue to grow by more than 70% in fiscal year 2026, far exceeding the current quarter's 52%.

To support the enormous demand from AI clients (such as OpenAI), Oracle plans to increase capital expenditures to over $25 billion in the new fiscal year. A key metric in the financial report—remaining performance obligations (RPO)—increased by 41% year-on-year to $138 billion, indicating strong visibility for the company's future revenue