Goldman Sachs: US stock bulls continue to bet on AI, while bears are concerned about growth and concentration; consensus is bullish on gold

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Goldman Sachs' market research shows that as we enter the traditional "autumn of troubles," the market sentiment among global institutional investors is showing a clear divide. The bullish camp continues to chase the rise of AI-driven technology stocks, while the bearish camp is increasingly wary of economic growth slowdown and market concentration risks. Amidst these divergences, a strong consensus has emerged: whether bullish or bearish, going long on gold has become a common choice for everyone. Meanwhile, interest in the Chinese market remains high, with 62% of respondents planning to maintain or increase their allocation to Chinese stocks.

The main contents of the report are as follows:

Bull-Bear Divergence: AI Faith and Growth Concerns Coexist

The survey of 804 institutional investors indicates that although overall risk sentiment has improved compared to last month and recession fears have further subsided, two major camps have formed within the market. The bullish camp remains optimistic about the future performance of U.S. stocks, particularly the "Magnificent 7," believing that the AI narrative is far from over. More than half of the respondents stated that they plan to maintain or increase their long positions in the "Magnificent 7." However, the inflow of new capital into this trade is showing a slight decline, indicating some changes beneath the surface. On the other hand, the bears have clear concerns about risks. They are mainly worried that the slowdown of the U.S. economy may exceed expectations and the concentration risk brought by large technology stocks dominating the market. Regarding the latter, investors' views are also divided, with 46% of respondents expecting the divergence between large stocks and the rest of the market to intensify, while 38% expect the divergence to weaken.

Gold Reigns: Longing Willingness Reaches Record Highs

Notably, among various asset classes, gold has become the most undisputed choice. According to the survey report, the ratio of investors optimistic about gold prices to those bearish has reached nearly 8 to 1. This is the first time gold has become the most popular long trade in Goldman Sachs' survey, with its popularity being "unprecedented," even surpassing developed market stocks. The report analyzes that whether it is the bulls expecting the Federal Reserve to soon start a rate-cutting cycle or the bears worried about the Fed's independence and seeking safe-haven assets, both view gold as an ideal allocation. Additionally, demand from central banks and potential private investors has collectively pushed the belief in going long on gold to new heights.

Chinese Market in the Spotlight, Dollar Consensus Reemerges

The survey also shows that investor interest in the Chinese market is rebounding. When asked which would perform better this month, the U.S. stock market (S&P 500) or the Chinese stock market (MSCI China), investors' opinions were nearly split, indicating that attention to the Chinese market is now on par with U.S. stocks. Data shows that as many as 62% of respondents plan to maintain or increase their positions in the Chinese stock market. This reflects an increase in market attractiveness after a strong rebound during the summer, but the report also notes that some recent market dynamics have dampened the enthusiasm of some investors, raising concerns about potential pullback risks. Furthermore, the trend of the dollar has once again become a focal point. Following a brief rebound last month, the consensus on shorting the dollar seems to have regained dominance. However, there is still no clear consensus among investors on the key factors driving the dollar's performance for the remainder of the year—whether it be interest rate differentials, Federal Reserve policies, or global reserve diversification