U.S. Stock Market Preview | Three Major Index Futures Mixed, Broadcom Rises Pre-Market, Non-Farm Payrolls Hit Tonight

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of September 5 (Friday) pre-market, the three major U.S. stock index futures are mixed. As of the time of publication, Dow futures are down 0.05%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.22%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.53%.

1. As of the time of publication, the German DAX index is up 0.11%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.29%, the French CAC40 index is up 0.12%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 0.21%.

1. As of the time of publication, WTI crude oil is down 0.76%, priced at $63.00 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 0.63%, priced at $66.57 per barrel.

Market News

Tonight's weak non-farm payroll report may lock in rate cuts, as the "frozen" labor market puts pressure on the Federal Reserve. Economists expect that the employment report to be released on Friday will continue the trend of the weakest job growth in the U.S. since the pandemic, which is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to decide to cut interest rates. According to the median forecast from a survey of economists, non-farm payrolls in August may increase by 75,000, marking the fourth consecutive month of job growth below 100,000. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021. In recent months, hiring activity has noticeably cooled due to businesses responding to demand concerns, rising costs, and the ongoing economic uncertainty brought about by President Trump's erratic trade policies. This has put greater pressure on Federal Reserve officials to intervene and support the increasingly slowing labor market.

The U.S. labor market is entering a "stalling moment"! Will there be 800,000 job positions to be revised down next week? The August non-farm payroll report is expected to confirm that the labor market is "stalling" and will provide a definitive signal for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in September, but even more shocking is next week's revision report. When the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its preliminary revised estimates of employment levels for the 12 months ending in March next Tuesday, slow job growth is likely to be confirmed. Based on existing Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data, economists estimate that employment levels may be revised down by as much as 800,000. QCEW data comes from reports submitted by employers to state unemployment insurance programs.

Expectations for a rate cut in September are rising! New York Fed President Williams states that tariffs have not pushed up inflation. The third-ranking official at the Federal Reserve, New York Fed President Williams, stated that there has not yet been a noticeable impact on overall inflation trends from the White House's increase in import tariffs. This clears a potential obstacle for the Federal Reserve to cut rates at the September meeting. Williams pointed out, "We have not seen tariffs trigger amplifying effects or second-round impacts on overall inflation trends." "Analysts pointed out that the lack of significant intensification of inflationary pressures means that the resistance to the Federal Reserve initiating interest rate cuts at the FOMC meeting on September 16-17 has eased. Williams also emphasized that high interest rates have led to a noticeable cooling in the labor market.

The impeachment incident continues to escalate, and the U.S. Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Governor Cook. The U.S. Department of Justice has initiated a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Governor Cook for alleged mortgage fraud. DOJ lawyers have issued subpoenas to relevant parties to investigate whether Cook engaged in fraudulent behavior in mortgage applications. Last month, Trump announced Cook's impeachment on the grounds of "alleged false property declarations," accusing her of falsely claiming that two properties were her primary residences in bank documents and records to obtain more favorable mortgage rates. Cook has firmly denied this, stating that she "will never succumb to the pressure to resign" and expressed her willingness to seriously respond to all questions regarding her financial history.

U.S. employment market leading indicator collapses: Construction industry turnover rate falls below crisis level. A key leading indicator of the U.S. employment market—the voluntary turnover rate in the construction industry—has plummeted to 0.9%, the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis, even lower than during the pandemic in 2020. This signal indicates that construction industry workers lack confidence in job prospects, typically suggesting increased downward pressure on the economy, ringing alarm bells for the overall labor market and economic situation.

Individual Stock News

Broadcom (AVGO.US) Q2 performance strong! Partnering with OpenAI to mass-produce self-developed AI chips. The financial report shows that Broadcom's revenue for the third fiscal quarter increased by 22% year-on-year to $15.95 billion, better than the market expectation of $15.86 billion; AI business revenue grew by 63% to $2 billion, exceeding the market expectation of $5.1 billion. The adjusted earnings per share were $1.69, better than the market expectation of $1.67. The company expects fourth-quarter revenue to be around $17.4 billion, better than the market expectation of $17 billion; it anticipates that fourth-quarter AI business revenue will continue to grow to $6.2 billion. Additionally, reports indicate that OpenAI will collaborate with Broadcom to launch OpenAI's first customized artificial intelligence chip (the so-called AI ASIC chip) next year. As of the time of writing, Broadcom's stock rose nearly 10% in pre-market trading on Friday.

Lululemon Athletica (LULU.US) lowers full-year performance guidance for the second consecutive time. The financial report shows that Lululemon's revenue for the second quarter increased by 7% year-on-year to $2.53 billion, slightly below the market expectation of $2.54 billion; same-store sales grew only 1%, far below the market expectation of 3.7%; earnings per share were $3.1, higher than the market expectation of $2.86. The company expects full-year revenue for fiscal year 2025 to be between $10.85 billion and $11 billion, lower than the previous forecast of $11.15 billion to $11.3 billion, and also below the market expectation of $11.2 billion; it expects earnings per share to be between $12.77 and $12.97, significantly down from the previous forecast of $14.58 to $14.78, and below the market expectation of $14.40. The company had previously lowered its full-year performance expectations in June and has done so again this quarter. As of the time of writing, Lululemon's stock fell nearly 19% in pre-market trading on Friday Retail expansion strategy shows significant results, Apple (AAPL.US) sales in India approach a record $9 billion. After vigorously expanding its retail business, Apple achieved an annual sales record of nearly $9 billion in India in the last fiscal year, indicating that as the tech giant increases its retail presence in the world's most populous country, consumer demand for its flagship products continues to grow. According to informed sources, Apple's revenue in India for the 12 months ending in March increased by about 13% compared to the $8 billion in the same period last year. The flagship product iPhone contributed the majority of sales, and demand for MacBook computers also saw significant growth. This remarkable increase injects new momentum into Apple, as its global mobile device sales are currently stagnating. Although the Indian market still represents a limited share of Apple's overall business, the company continues to increase its investment in this key future market.

Texas Instruments (TXN.US) CFO warns: Semiconductor demand recovery is below expectations, automotive market is lagging. Texas Instruments Chief Financial Officer Rafael Lizardi issued a warning at a conference that the pace of recovery in semiconductor demand has not been as rapid as some had hoped. Texas Instruments expects that among the five end markets it serves, four are fully recovering, but the automotive market remains an exception, with a slower recovery process. The company added that this recovery is not a sharp rebound but a steady progression, with long-term growth opportunities in the industrial, automotive components, enterprise, and data center sectors.

It is reported that Starbucks (SBUX.US) China acquisition bids reach $5 billion, with Tencent, KKR, and others participating in the competition. Two individuals familiar with the transaction negotiations revealed that most bidders interested in acquiring Starbucks' China business have submitted bids, with amounts reaching $5 billion. This bid scale would make this potential transaction one of the highest valued cases of global consumer goods companies divesting their China business in recent years. Last month, reports indicated that Starbucks had invited about 10 potential buyers to submit non-binding bids in early September. Informed sources stated that most bids value Starbucks China at around 10 times its expected EBITDA of $400 million to $500 million for 2025.

Important economic data and event forecasts

Beijing time 20:30 U.S. August non-farm payroll report