State Street Global Advisors: The likelihood of gold rising another $500 in the next 6-12 months is relatively high

Zhitong
2025.09.05 05:49
portai
I'm PortAI, I can summarize articles.

State Street Global Advisors' monthly gold monitoring report indicates that spot gold prices reached a new high in early September, breaking through $3,500, primarily influenced by multiple intertwined macro factors, including high valuations in stocks (especially in the technology sector), a steepening yield curve in developed market government bonds, and significant uncertainty in U.S. policies. The report states that due to numerous potential economic outcomes that are difficult to predict, gold has continued to perform strongly this year, leading other dollar-denominated asset classes. The U.S. labor market is gradually cooling, consumer confidence is becoming more conservative, and recent economic data also shows that the impact of tariffs is becoming increasingly significant, posing challenges to the overall trend of slowing inflation. Compared to a few months ago, State Street believes that the risks of stagflation, stock market corrections, or significant market volatility have increased rather than decreased. Meanwhile, the demand for physical gold from central banks and investment channels continues to rise. State Street stated that if gold prices can maintain their recent upward trend after the Federal Reserve's meeting in September, the firm expects to raise the probability of a long-term optimistic scenario range ($3,500-$3,900) from 30% to 40% in October. Additionally, State Street Global Advisors maintains the lower price floor for gold in the basic scenario at $3,100 and believes that there is a high likelihood of gold rising another $500 within the next 6-12 months

According to the monthly gold monitoring report from State Street Global Advisors, spot gold prices reached a new high in early September, breaking through $3,500, mainly influenced by multiple intertwined macro factors, including high valuations in stocks (especially in the technology sector), a steepening yield curve of government bonds in developed markets, and high uncertainty in U.S. policies.

The report states that due to numerous potential economic outcomes that are difficult to predict, gold has continued to perform strongly this year, leading other dollar-denominated asset classes. The U.S. labor market is gradually cooling, consumer confidence is becoming more conservative, and recent economic data also shows that the impact of tariffs is becoming increasingly significant, with the overall trend of inflation slowing facing challenges. Compared to a few months ago, State Street believes that the risks of stagflation, stock market corrections, or significant market volatility have increased rather than decreased. Meanwhile, the demand for physical gold from central banks and investment channels continues to rise.

State Street indicated that if gold prices can maintain their recent upward trend after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in September, the firm expects to raise the probability of a long-term optimistic scenario range ($3,500-$3,900) from 30% to 40% in October. Additionally, State Street Global Advisors maintains that the lower price for gold in the basic scenario is $3,100 and believes that there is a high likelihood of gold rising another $500 within the next 6-12 months

Source: Zhitong The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the stance of the platform. The content is intended for investment reference purposes only and shall not be considered as investment advice. Please contact us if you have any questions or suggestions regarding the content services provided by the platform.