U.S. Stock Outlook | Three major index futures mixed, S&P futures drop before market open, Broadcom to announce earnings after market close

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of September 4th (Thursday), U.S. stock index futures are mixed before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are down 0.04%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.17%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.18%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 0.81%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.17%, the French CAC 40 index is up 0.00%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 0.39%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 0.92%, priced at $63.38 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 0.93%, priced at $66.97 per barrel.

Market News

Wall Street Sounds Alarm: Concerns Over Federal Reserve Independence Intensify, Inflation Trades Resurface. Wall Street strategists indicate that there are signs showing increasing investor concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve as President Trump attempts to influence the Fed and push for interest rate cuts. The JP Morgan team states that positions in the stock, bond, and gold markets suggest that investors are preparing for potential inflation rises following Trump's selection of close advisor Stephen Moore to the Fed and attempts to dismiss board member Lisa Cook. Goldman Sachs analyst Samantha Dart notes that "growing concerns" over the credibility of U.S. institutions are triggering "significant tail risks," which could lead to soaring commodity prices, including gold.

93% Recession Risk! UBS Warns: U.S. Economy Has Slipped into Weak Zone. UBS warns that based on "hard data" from May to July 2025, the risk of a recession in the U.S. economy is as high as 93%. UBS describes the current situation as "stable but high-risk," likening it to high blood pressure in medical terms, which may not collapse immediately but is very dangerous. UBS has not formally predicted an economic recession but expects sluggish economic growth in 2025, with a potential recovery in 2026. UBS also emphasizes the pressure in the credit market, stating that according to credit indicators, the likelihood of a recession has risen to 41%, nearly double that of January.

Federal Reserve Kashkari Warns of Inflation Pressures, Bostic Supports Slight Rate Cuts This Year. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari stated on Thursday that the tariff measures pushed by President Trump are driving up commodity inflation, complicating the Fed's path to achieving its 2% inflation target. He noted that while the labor market is showing signs of cooling, the overall economy is still expected to achieve a "soft landing," but current inflation levels remain "too high." Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic reiterated in an article that he believes a small rate cut of 25 basis points this year is appropriate, but it depends on the developments in inflation and the job market over the next few months. When asked about the possibility of a rate cut in September, he stated, "I will keep an open mind" and will closely monitor indicators such as wage growth and non-farm payrolls.

Goldman Sachs: If the Federal Reserve's credibility is damaged, gold prices could approach $5,000. Goldman Sachs analysts, including Samantha Dart, stated: "A loss of independence for the Federal Reserve could lead to heightened inflation, declines in stock and long-term bond prices, and a weakening of the dollar's status as a reserve currency. In contrast, gold is a store of value that does not rely on institutional trust." Goldman Sachs' report outlines a range of possible outcomes for gold prices, with the base forecast being that gold prices will soar to $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026; the so-called tail risk scenario is $4,500; if only 1% of privately held U.S. Treasury bonds were converted to gold, gold prices are expected to reach nearly $5,000 per ounce.

High interest rates suppress the rebound of small-cap stocks, leading to differentiation, with profitable small-cap stocks expected to perform better. The rebound of small-cap stocks in the U.S. has come to an end, as investors are concerned that the pace and magnitude of interest rate cuts will not be sufficient to support heavily indebted companies. The uncertainty that the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield may break above 5% has dampened the popularity of small-cap stocks. At the same time, due to the uncertainty of the U.S. economic outlook, the market is also worried that even if the Federal Reserve eases policy this month, it may again enter a wait-and-see mode. These factors have left traders lacking reasons to make large bets on small-cap stocks. However, analysts are examining companies in this sector one by one and are betting on those that can still maintain profitability in an uncertain environment.

Trump nominates Stephen Moore to the Federal Reserve Board, pledging to uphold the central bank's independence and dual mandate. Stephen Moore, nominated by President Donald Trump as a candidate for the Federal Reserve Board, clearly stated in his opening remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee that he will fully uphold the independence of the Federal Reserve and its dual mandate of "price stability and maximum employment." He emphasized: "In my view, the core responsibility of the central bank is to prevent economic downturns and hyperinflation, and the independence of monetary policy is a key element of its success." The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on this nomination on Thursday morning.

Individual Stock News

Tesla (TSLA.US) announces Robotaxi is open to the public! The "pie" drawn by Musk has finally landed. Tesla announced that its autonomous taxi (Robotaxi) application is now open to the public. This move means that the company will soon expand this service from a limited early user group in Austin, Texas, to a broader audience. Previously, the user base for this service was mainly limited to investors and social media influencers. It is currently unclear whether users will be able to use the service in both Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area, but the application's terms of service have listed special provisions for California users Apple (AAPL.US) plans to launch an AI search tool next year, partnering with Google to upgrade Siri and challenge OpenAI. Apple plans to launch its own AI-driven web search tool next year to compete with OpenAI and Perplexity AI. According to insiders, the company is developing a new system codenamed "World Knowledge Q&A," which will be integrated into the Siri voice assistant. Apple has also discussed eventually applying this technology to the Safari web browser and Spotlight (the feature for searching from the iPhone home screen). Insiders indicate that Apple aims to release this service, referred to by executives as the "answer engine," in the spring as part of the long-delayed comprehensive upgrade plan for Siri.

Salesforce (CRM.US) revenue outlook dim, AI monetization struggles weigh on stock price. The financial report shows that Salesforce's Q2 revenue grew 9.8% year-on-year to $10.2 billion, slightly above analysts' expectations of $10.1 billion; current remaining performance obligations grew 11% to $29.4 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $2.91, compared to analysts' expectations of $2.78. The company expects Q3 revenue to reach $10.2 billion to $10.3 billion, slightly below Wall Street's average expectation of $10.3 billion; it anticipates current remaining performance obligations to grow "slightly above" 10%, in line with analysts' forecasts. This indicates that, faced with fierce competition from emerging AI companies, its AI products have yet to achieve the expected market returns. As of the time of writing, Salesforce's stock fell nearly 7% in pre-market trading on Thursday.

C3.ai (AI.US) Q1 revenue misses expectations and multiple financial indicators raise concerns. Financially, the company achieved revenue of $70.3 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, down from $87.2 million in the same period last year; cash flow remained strong at $711.9 million, providing ample funding for the company's transformation. However, several financial indicators raised concerns—operating losses significantly widened, free cash flow plummeted from a positive $7.1 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025 to a negative $34.3 million, and non-GAAP operating losses reached $57.8 million, contrasting sharply with the near profitability seen in the previous quarter. As of the time of writing, C3.ai's stock fell over 13% in pre-market trading on Thursday.

41% growth rate not impressive + lackluster performance outlook, Figma (FIG.US) struggles to support high valuation in its first earnings report post-IPO. The company reported total revenue of approximately $249.6 million in the second quarter, a 41% year-on-year increase, but slightly below analysts' average expectation of $250 million. The company's reported net revenue retention rate was 129% (this metric reflects expansion from existing customers, demonstrating not only increased purchases from old customers and product stickiness but also strong revenue generation based on AI), but it decreased from 132% in the first quarter, which is a key reason the market believes Figma's performance cannot support its high valuation. As of the time of writing, Figma's stock fell over 14% in pre-market trading on Thursday

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 20:15 U.S. August ADP Employment Change

Beijing time 20:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 30

Beijing time 22:00 U.S. August ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Beijing time 22:00 U.S. Senate Banking Committee hearing on the nomination of Milan to serve as a Federal Reserve Governor

Beijing time 23:30 FOMC permanent voting member, New York Fed President Williams speaks at the New York Economic Club

Earnings Forecast

Friday morning: Broadcom (AVGO.US)