U.S. Stock Market Outlook | The three major stock index futures are mixed, with Google and Apple rising in pre-market trading as the Federal Reserve's Beige Book is about to be released

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of September 3rd (Wednesday), U.S. stock index futures are mixed before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are down 0.05%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.39%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.62%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 0.64%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.52%, the French CAC 40 index is up 0.90%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 0.82%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 1.91%, priced at $64.34 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 1.69%, priced at $67.97 per barrel.

Market News

Another institution is bullish! Federated Hermes: Strong corporate earnings and economic outlook support U.S. stocks, and pullbacks provide good buying opportunities. Since entering September, U.S. stocks have had a sluggish start, as investors reassess the high valuations of tech stocks, while concerns over government spending have triggered a sell-off in the bond market, impacting market sentiment. However, Steve Chiavarone, Deputy Chief Investment Officer at asset management firm Federated Hermes, stated that due to strong corporate earnings and economic outlook, any pullback in the U.S. stock market may be brief and limited. Steve Chiavarone said, "If you want to do something, it’s to increase positions when the market weakens." "If you filter out the noise and volatility, in an environment of earnings growth, upward revisions in earnings expectations, good economic data, and impending interest rate declines, I wouldn’t bet on a decline in the U.S. stock market."

Deutsche Bank CEO: The global bond sell-off is not just a "temporary fluctuation," and yields will remain high. Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing stated that he expects bond yields to remain high in the coming months, as governments around the world strive to implement reforms and adhere to fiscal discipline. Sewing said, "I don’t think this is just a temporary fluctuation. It reflects, to some extent, political uncertainty, a lack of reforms, and rising debt." The recent turmoil in the global bond market is due to multiple overlapping factors. The global government bond market is facing selling pressure as concerns over inflation, debt issuance, and fiscal discipline have weakened confidence in what were previously considered the safest assets in the world Non-farm payrolls and the "September chill" are coming! Market is on high alert! The VIX index surges, sounding the alarm for extreme volatility. After the calm trading period on Wall Street following the three-day holiday for Labor Day in the United States, top institutions are preparing for larger-scale fluctuations as the market reopens on Tuesday. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (also known as the VIX fear index) rose over 6% last Friday and surged more than 11% on Tuesday, highlighting that traders are beginning to bet on increased market volatility. This comes ahead of the highly anticipated non-farm payroll data to be released on Friday, with the VIX's further surge potentially leading U.S. stocks and even global markets into a downward trajectory of extreme volatility. Meanwhile, market risk aversion is heating up, with safe-haven buying flocking to gold.

Is the record rise in gold not over yet? UBS: $4,000 is not impossible! Gold reached new highs this week, with spot gold prices continuing their record rise. As of Wednesday, spot gold hovered above the $3,500 mark, while December gold futures surged above $3,600. UBS strategists stated that the outlook for gold appears positive, citing support from geopolitical uncertainties and benefits from declining interest rates. The bank reiterated its price target of $3,700 per ounce for June 2026 but added that in scenarios of worsening geopolitical or economic conditions, the possibility of prices rising to $4,000 per ounce cannot be ruled out.

Individual Stock News

Google (GOOGL.US) online search monopoly ruling issued, no need to divest Chrome and Android systems. A U.S. judge ruled that Google does not need to divest its Chrome browser or split its Android operating system, while continuing to reject related requests from prosecutors. Google is also not prohibited from paying Apple to ensure its search remains the default option on Apple devices, but the court reserves the right to revisit this arrangement in the future. Additionally, Google is not prohibited from paying distribution partners to pre-install Google Search, Chrome, or its generative AI products. However, Google must share some search index data with competitors to open up competition in the online search market. Meanwhile, the company is not allowed to enter into exclusive distribution agreements involving Google Search, Chrome, Google Assistant, and the Gemini app. These restrictions are seen as creating space for emerging AI search service providers. As of publication, Google shares rose over 6% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

Apple (AAPL.US) "foldable screen blueprint" revealed: foldable iPhone to feature ultra-thin glass, expected to ship 25 million units by 2027. Consumer electronics industry analysts widely expect Apple (AAPL.US) to begin releasing foldable-screen iPhone and iPad devices starting in 2026. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo from TF International Securities stated that General Interface Solution (GIS) is collaborating with Corning (GLW), the exclusive supplier of raw UTG (ultra-thin flexible glass) for the iPhone, to manage the backend processing He also stated that the latest expectations for Apple's foldable smartphone devices have been significantly raised, with the shipment forecast for 2026 adjusted from the previous 6 to 8 million units to 8 to 10 million units, and even the expected shipment range for 2027 is about 20 to 25 million units, far exceeding the previous market forecast of 10 to 15 million units. As of the time of writing, Apple shares rose more than 4% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

NVIDIA (NVDA.US) denies chip shortage rumors: H100/H200 are sufficient to meet all orders without delays. NVIDIA's official social media account clarified rumors regarding the H100 and H200 GPUs, stating that these AI chips based on the Hopper architecture are in ample supply to meet immediate demand. NVIDIA stated, "We have noticed false statements in the media claiming that NVIDIA's H100/H200 series GPUs are in short supply and 'sold out.' As we mentioned in our earnings report, cloud service partners can rent all online H100/H200 GPUs on their platforms—but this does not mean we cannot accept new orders."

Macy's (M.US) Q2 sales exceeded expectations, raising full-year performance guidance. The earnings report showed that Macy's Q2 net sales were $4.81 billion, compared to market expectations of $4.71 billion; gross margin was 39.7%, compared to market expectations of 39.5%. The company expects fiscal year net sales to be between $21.15 billion and $21.45 billion, up from the previous expectation of $21 billion to $21.4 billion; it expects adjusted earnings per share for the fiscal year to be between $1.70 and $2.05, up from the previous expectation of $1.60 to $2, with market expectations at $1.81. As of the time of writing, Macy's shares surged over 12% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

Kraft Heinz (KHC.US) split plan angers Buffett, Moody's warns of potential downgrade of its investment-grade rating. After Kraft Heinz announced its business split plan, the uncertainty regarding its future capital structure has raised market concerns. The international rating agency Moody's has placed the company on a watch list for a potential credit rating downgrade and has initiated a comprehensive review of its investment-grade rating. Notably, this split plan has publicly displeased its largest shareholder, Buffett. As the head of Berkshire Hathaway, which holds a 27.5% stake, Buffett expressed disappointment in an interview over the board's decision to proceed with the split without consulting shareholders.

Industry consolidation accelerates! Aviation leasing giant Air Lease (AL.US) acquired for $7.4 billion, will go private. Aircraft leasing company Air Lease has agreed to sell itself to an investor consortium for $7.4 billion, a move that will privatize the company and signal more consolidation in the aircraft leasing business. This acquisition plan is led by Japan's Mitsui & Co. and SMBC Aviation Capital, with asset management firms Apollo and Brookfield also participating. Including debt, the investors' valuation of the company is approximately $28.2 billion.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

At 21:00 Beijing time, 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy.

At 22:00 Beijing time, the revised value of U.S. durable goods orders for July.

At 22:00 Beijing time, U.S. factory orders for July.

At 22:00 Beijing time, U.S. JOLTs job openings for July.

At 01:30 the next day Beijing time, 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will participate in a fireside chat.

At 02:00 the next day Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions.

Earnings Forecast

Thursday morning: Salesforce (CRM.US), Figma (FIG.US), C3.ai (AI.US)