In addition to the Pro, Wall Street expects the iPhone 17 to "not increase in price," with the thinnest iPhone 17 Air being the core highlight

Wallstreetcn
2025.09.03 02:12
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JP Morgan predicts that, except for the Pro model which may see a price increase of $100 due to doubled storage, the starting prices of other models will remain unchanged. The newly launched iPhone 17 Air model replaces the "Plus" version with a lightweight design, becoming the thinnest iPhone. The final pricing of this model is crucial, as whether it can keep the price below the key subsidy threshold of 6,000 RMB in the Chinese market will directly determine the product's sales performance

On the eve of Apple's fall product launch event, Wall Street investment bank JP Morgan released a research report on September 2, "revealing" the core highlights and pricing suspense of the iPhone 17 series in advance.

According to news from the trading desk, the report predicts that in the upcoming iPhone 17 series, aside from the Pro models, which may see a price increase of $100 due to the doubling of base storage, the starting prices for the standard iPhone 17 and Pro Max versions are expected to remain unchanged.

At the same time, a new lightweight model aimed at replacing the "Plus" version—the "iPhone 17 Air"—is expected to debut for the first time. Its market acceptance and final pricing are seen as key variables affecting Apple's performance in the new fiscal year.

The New "Air" Debuts, Can It Become a "Surprise"?

According to JP Morgan's report, the biggest highlight of this year's iPhone product line is expected to be the launch of the "iPhone 17 Air." This new model will replace the "Plus" version, which has received lukewarm market responses in previous generations.

The report cites supply chain sources stating that the iPhone 17 Air focuses on extreme lightness and thinness. Its body thickness is only 5.5 mm, at least 2.0 mm thinner than the Pro version, making it the thinnest iPhone to date; it weighs about 145 grams, almost comparable to the iPhone 13 Mini (141 grams) from years ago. Despite its lightness, some configurations align with the Pro, such as a 6.6-inch ProMotion display (supporting a 120Hz refresh rate) and 12GB of memory.

However, to achieve a lightweight design, it has made corresponding compromises, such as possibly adopting a single 48-megapixel rear camera, and the battery capacity (expected to be 2,800 mAh) is significantly smaller than other models.

JP Morgan points out that Apple's initial planned production volume for this model is about 10 to 15 million units, showing a relatively cautious attitude. However, analysts believe that if its lightweight design can successfully attract an unexpected consumer group, the iPhone 17 Air still has the potential to become a "surprise" in this product cycle.

Pro Version "Indirect" Price Increase, Most Models Maintain Prices

Price is always the topic consumers care about the most. JP Morgan predicts that aside from the Pro models, the prices of the iPhone 17 series will remain largely stable.

Specifically:

  • The starting price for the iPhone 17 standard version is expected to be $799, the same as the previous generation.
  • The starting price for the iPhone 17 Pro Max is expected to be $1,199, also unchanged.
  • The pricing range for the iPhone 17 Air is expected to be between $899 and $949, replacing the $899 iPhone 16 Plus.
  • The starting price for the iPhone 17 Pro is expected to increase from $999 to $1,099.

It is worth noting that the price increase for the Pro version is not a simple price hike. The report emphasizes that its base storage capacity is expected to double from 128GB to 256GB. This means that Apple has achieved a price increase by eliminating the lower configuration version, and for users purchasing the same capacity, the price has not changed. However, this move will still break the record of maintaining a starting price of $999 for Pro models for eight years.

The Chinese Market Becomes Key: Pricing Game Under Subsidy Threshold

JP Morgan particularly emphasizes the decisive role of the Chinese market in iPhone sales in the report. The analysis states that the Chinese market is highly price-sensitive, and the ability to enjoy smartphone subsidies is a key factor affecting demand.

Currently, phones priced below 6,000 yuan (approximately $840) are eligible for discounts and subsidies from certain platforms or carriers. The estimated starting price of the iPhone 17 Air at $899 is clearly above this threshold.

The report believes this is a critical point of contention. If Apple can ultimately lower the Air's price to around $800, making it eligible for subsidies, it would greatly stimulate its sales in the Chinese market, injecting a shot of adrenaline into what might otherwise be a lackluster sales forecast.

Summary of Product Expectations for the Launch Event

iPhone 17 Series Expectations:

  • iPhone 17 Air: Expected thickness of 5.5 mm, which will be more than 2.0 mm thinner than the Pro model, making it the thinnest iPhone to date.
  • Display: The display size of the base iPhone 17 is expected to increase to 6.3 inches (compared to 6.1 inches for the iPhone 16); the Pro and Pro Max models are expected to remain at 6.3 inches and 6.9 inches, respectively; the 17 Air is expected to be around 6.6 inches.
  • ProMotion Technology: The ProMotion display technology, supporting a maximum refresh rate of 120Hz, may be extended to the entire product line, whereas it was previously limited to Pro models.
  • Camera Design: The Pro model is expected to feature a horizontally rectangular camera bump spanning the width of the iPhone, rather than the typical square camera bump.
  • Camera Specifications: The Pro model is expected to be equipped with a 24-megapixel front camera (up from 12 megapixels) and a 48-megapixel telephoto camera (up from 12 megapixels), making all three rear cameras 48 megapixels. The upgraded telephoto camera may support 8x optical zoom (up from 5x).
  • Internal Chips: The Pro model is expected to be equipped with an internal Wi-Fi chip; the 17 Air is expected to feature an internal C1 modem.
  • Memory: The Pro model is expected to come with 12GB of RAM (up from 8GB)
  • Processor: The iPhone 17 series will be equipped with the A19 chip (3 nanometers), with the Pro model using the A19 Pro version.
  • Storage and Price: The base storage option for the Pro model may increase from 128 GB to 256 GB, with a price increase of about 100 USD.

Apple Watch:

  • Apple Watch 11: Expected to have minimal upgrades. However, the report also indicates that the introduction of a blood pressure monitoring sensor would be a surprise.

  • Apple Watch Ultra 3: Equipped with satellite connectivity, expected to be a key upgrade compared to the Watch Ultra 2

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