U.S. Stock Market Preview | Three Major Index Futures All Decline, Star Tech Stocks Drop Ahead of Market Open

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of September 2 (Tuesday), U.S. stock index futures are all down before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are down 0.58%, S&P 500 futures are down 0.72%, and Nasdaq futures are down 0.94%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 1.46%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.20%, the French CAC40 index is down 0.36%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.83%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 2.72%, priced at $65.75 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 1.60%, priced at $69.24 per barrel.

Market News

Rising bond yields trigger investor panic. After the long weekend, Wall Street is once again engulfed in concerns over the tech stock bubble and government budget tightness. The global bond market has generally retreated, and gold prices briefly touched historical highs. The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by 5 basis points to 4.98%, while the yield on 30-year UK government bonds reached its highest level since 1998. The issuance of 10-year UK government bonds is expected to raise a record £14 billion, highlighting the necessity of raising funds to cover the expanding budget gap. The pound has fallen by more than 1%.

Morgan Stanley: U.S. stocks will continue to rise with Fed rate cuts and strong corporate earnings. Michael Wilson, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, stated that with the Federal Reserve poised to cut rates and robust corporate earnings, the U.S. stock market is expected to continue rising after four consecutive months of gains. This strategist, who correctly predicted the rebound of U.S. stocks during the sell-off in April, noted that the U.S. economy is entering the "early stage of the cycle," where nominal earnings continue to grow while borrowing costs decline. He added that rate-sensitive stocks, such as small-cap stocks, have underperformed this year, indicating potential for catch-up.

The worst month in U.S. stock history is here! UBS sounds the September seasonal alarm. UBS recently stated that the strong rise in the U.S. stock market in August 2025 was mainly driven by EPS revisions; however, with September arriving—the historically most negative seasonal month for the S&P 500—the market faces a turning point. The bank warned that although there are no signs of economic data slowing down, high positioning and dependence on Federal Reserve policy make the market vulnerable, and investors should be wary of systemic risks. UBS specifically warned of the negative seasonal risks in September, which is the most unfavorable month in U.S. stock history. The market is at historical highs, but seasonal factors typically intensify after mid-September, coinciding with the FOMC meeting, increasing the probability of a pullback Inflation is no longer a major concern? UBS: The Federal Reserve will start a "four consecutive cuts" to maintain employment. UBS expects that due to inflation levels remaining near target ranges and rising risks in the labor market, the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates at four consecutive meetings starting in September, with a total reduction of 100 basis points. The bank pointed out that the mild personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data for July, weakening employment demand, and increasingly dovish statements from Federal Reserve officials all indicate that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is ready to take action on interest rate cuts.

Goldman Sachs: July core PCE meets expectations but trade deficit widens sharply, lowering Q3 U.S. GDP forecast to 1.6%. Seasonally adjusted, the U.S. goods trade deficit widened by $18.7 billion to $103.6 billion in July, far exceeding Goldman Sachs' ($91 billion) and market ($90.2 billion) expectations, with a previous value of $84.9 billion. Goldman Sachs emphasized that the unexpected widening of the goods trade deficit is the core reason for lowering the tracking value of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The bank stated that it has lowered its tracking forecast for U.S. third-quarter GDP by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6% (annualized quarterly rate). This indicates that net exports will significantly drag on economic growth. However, the indicator measuring domestic demand strength—domestic final sales—is expected to maintain a positive growth of 0.6%.

UBS warns: The dollar's decline is not over, investors should reduce, hedge, and diversify dollar risks. UBS recently released a research report stating that although the dollar index has fallen more than 10% so far in 2025, it is expected that the dollar will not experience a sustained rebound. The slowdown in U.S. economic growth may lead the Federal Reserve to resume accommodative monetary policy, while the rate-cutting cycles of most other central banks are nearing an end. Therefore, the bank tends to take strategies to diversify excess dollar exposure before the dollar may decline further.

Gold breaks through $3,500 to usher in a new era! Rate cut expectations and political risks serve as dual engines. Gold prices broke through $3,500 on Tuesday, setting a new historical high. The supporting factors for this round of gold price increase are market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month, after Fed Chairman Powell cautiously opened the door to rate cuts. A key U.S. employment report to be released this Friday may further prove the increasingly sluggish labor market—providing justification for rate cuts. This enhances the appeal of the precious metal that does not pay interest to holders.

Individual Stock News

Star tech stocks fall before the market opens, chip stocks lead the decline. As of the time of writing on Tuesday before the U.S. stock market opened, ASML (ASML.US) fell nearly 3%, NVIDIA (NVDA.US) fell 2%, and AMD (AMD.US), Intel (INTC.US), Broadcom (AVGO.US), Micron Technology (MU.US), and Qualcomm (QCOM.US) all fell over 1%. Additionally, Amazon (AMZN.US), Oracle (ORCL.US), Meta (META.US), Google (GOOGL.US), and Tesla (TSLA.US) fell over 1%.

High tariffs deter consumers? Tesla (TSLA.US) has received only over 600 orders since its launch in India. According to media reports citing informed sources, since starting sales in India in mid-July, Tesla (TSLA.US) has received just over 600 electric vehicle orders, a number that falls short of the company's own expectations Due to global factory overcapacity and declining sales, Tesla has adopted a strategy of selling imported cars in India despite tariff and tax pressures. Although road infrastructure in India has improved, traffic regulations—such as driving in lanes—remain very basic, the number of electric vehicle charging stations is scarce, and stray animals (including cows) and potholes on the roads (even in cities) pose significant obstacles. Additionally, Tesla's electric vehicle sales in China fell 4% year-on-year in August. However, the delivery volume of the Shanghai-produced Model 3 and Model Y (including exports) increased by 22.6% month-on-month in August, reaching 83,192 units.

Starbucks (SBUX.US) turnaround plan shows initial results! Pumpkin spice returns, igniting Starbucks' strongest weekly sales. Starbucks stated that its fall product update and launch—highlighting the full return of the seasonal pumpkin spice latte—has driven a rare surge in sales for the company in recent years. According to insiders, newly appointed CEO Brian Niccol mentioned in an internal message to all Starbucks employees that this product lineup helped achieve "record sales in our U.S. company-operated stores for a single week, while also achieving incredibly strong sales data in Canada. This is undoubtedly a significant positive development for Starbucks, which has faced a prolonged period of weak performance." The company is working to reverse a series of declining sales trends.

Kraft Heinz (KHC.US) to split into two companies to promote growth. Kraft Heinz announced on Tuesday that it will split into two publicly traded companies, one focused on condiments and the other on grocery products. This move aims to revive growth as the company's sales have been sluggish in recent years. In 2024, the condiments division generated approximately $15.4 billion in revenue, while the grocery business accounted for about $10.4 billion. This tax-free split is expected to be completed in the second half of 2026. This action follows Kraft Heinz's announcement in May that it was exploring acquisitions to enhance shareholder returns. Like many packaged food manufacturers, the company faces headwinds as consumers shift towards healthier and more affordable snacks and condiments.

Nio (NIO.US) releases second-quarter results: total revenue of 19.0087 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%. Nio released its second-quarter results for the three months ending June 30, 2025, reporting automotive sales of 16.1361 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%; total revenue of 19.0087 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%; and a net loss of 4.9948 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1%. Data released on Monday showed that Nio delivered 31,305 new vehicles in August, a year-on-year increase of 55.2%, setting a new historical high.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts

Beijing time 21:45 U.S. August SPGI Manufacturing PMI final value

Beijing time 22:00 U.S. August ISM Manufacturing PMI

Beijing time 02:00 the next day U.S. President Trump delivers a speech at the White House

Earnings Forecast

Wednesday Pre-Market: Macy's (M.US)