Has the US stock market entered the traditional September off-season?
Bank of America: Since 1927, in the first year of the U.S. presidential election cycle, the probability of the S&P 500 index declining in September has reached 58%, making it the second worst-performing month in history. During this period, the average return of the index was -1.62%. October also performed weakly, with an average return of -0.58%. Overall, since 1950, September has been the month with the worst average returns. In the 18 election years since 1950, there have only been 3 years in which September saw an increase. Historical data suggests that market volatility is imminent
Bank of America: Since 1927, in the first year of the U.S. presidential election cycle, the probability of the S&P 500 index declining in September has reached 58%, making it the second worst-performing month in history.
During this period, the average return of the index was -1.62%. October also performed weakly, with an average return of -0.58%. Overall, since 1950, September has been the month with the worst average returns.
In the 18 post-election years from 1950 to present, there have only been 3 years where September saw an increase. Historical data suggests that market volatility is imminent.
