September starts poorly! Asian stocks generally decline, tech stocks pull back, and the suspense of non-farm data suppresses the market

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, influenced by the new variables in tariff policies due to a U.S. court ruling and investors preparing for U.S. employment data (which may determine the direction of interest rate cuts), Asian stock markets opened lower and declined on the first trading day of September, with most indices falling.

Although U.S. and European stock markets both retreated last Friday, trading was light due to the U.S. market being closed that day, and futures for U.S. and European stock markets still saw slight increases.

This week, data releases are relatively dense, covering manufacturing and services survey data, and a series of labor data will conclude with the August non-farm payroll report on Friday. Prior to this, fluctuations in the U.S. dollar exchange rate and the bond market have been limited.

The general market expectation for the August non-farm payroll numbers is an increase of 75,000 jobs, but due to the unexpectedly weak July data causing uncertainty, estimates from various institutions vary widely, ranging from 0 to 110,000; the unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly to 4.3%.

Analysts also remind that over the past decade, the actual values of the August non-farm payroll reports have often fallen short of market expectations. If this data meets expectations or performs weaker, it will further solidify market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at the meeting on September 17—currently, futures markets indicate that the probability of this rate cut is close to 90%.

Michael Feroli, Chief U.S. Economist at JP Morgan, stated: "Although inflation and economic growth data have not strongly called for a rate cut, considering the Federal Reserve's concerns about the significant slowdown in recent employment growth, at this stage, unless there is a significant positive surprise in the employment data, the Federal Reserve is likely to proceed with rate cuts."

Expectations for rate cuts have been an important factor supporting U.S. stocks near historical highs, and this support comes particularly timely—September has historically been the worst month for the S&P 500 index over the past 35 years.

On Monday morning in Asia, S&P 500 futures rose by 0.08%, and Nasdaq futures rose by 0.06%; the Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose by 0.09%, the UK FTSE futures fell by 0.05%, and the German DAX futures rose by 0.08%.

Affected by the decline of U.S. tech stocks last Friday, Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell by 2.03%; the Korea Composite Stock Price Index fell by 0.76%.

Hiroyuki Ueno, Chief Strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management, stated: "Stocks related to artificial intelligence (AI) chips, like Nvidia (NVDA.US), have already seen considerable gains. Currently, the valuations of related stocks are generally high, and some investors have already deemed their valuations to be beyond reasonable ranges. In this context, any negative news related to leading stocks like Nvidia can easily have a direct impact on the entire tech sector."

Legitimacy of U.S. Tariff Policies in Doubt

The U.S. Federal Appeals Court ruled that several broad tariff policies introduced by Trump are illegal, but these tariffs will remain in effect until the Supreme Court hears the appeal in mid-October. This ruling continues to exert pressure on the market due to trade uncertainties.

Although the White House still has other avenues to impose tariffs on specific industries, this ruling casts a shadow over trade agreements that have been reached or are under negotiation. For example, negotiations between the U.S. and Japan have stalled over rice issues, and talks with South Korea have also faced setbacks Paul Ashworth, Chief North America Economist at Capital Economics, pointed out: "If the Supreme Court upholds the lower court's ruling, the U.S. Treasury may have to refund most of the nearly $100 billion in additional tariffs collected over the past five months; moreover, other countries may also withdraw from previously reached preliminary agreements, a risk that cannot be ignored."

Investors should also be wary of Trump's attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve this week—Federal Reserve Governor Cook is scheduled to submit a new defense on Tuesday against his dismissal. Additionally, the confirmation hearing for another Federal Reserve nominee put forward by Trump, Stephen Moore, is set for Thursday.

The political pressure for the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate cuts has suppressed the U.S. dollar exchange rate. The dollar index is currently hovering around 97.720, down 2.2% last month; the euro has slightly risen 0.17% against the dollar; the dollar to yen exchange rate remains at 1 dollar to 147.044 yen.

In the commodities market, driven by a weaker dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts, gold prices rose 2.2% last week, currently trading at about $3,475.

Due to OPEC+'s plan to increase production in the coming months, oil prices are under pressure and have weakened. As of now, Brent crude futures have fallen 0.40%; U.S. crude futures have decreased by 0.37%