Who is the strongest sell-side research institution? The commission ranking for the first half of 2025 is revealed

In the reality of the Chinese securities industry, sell-side research has always been the "pearl on the crown."

Although it does not generate much profit, it showcases a brokerage's professional capabilities, comprehensive influence, and operational level, and has a strong driving effect on various businesses such as investment banking, proprietary trading, asset management, and wealth management.

The indicators for measuring the sell-side research capabilities of various brokerages are also very clear—the total amount and ranking of commission fees allocated by public funds.

Especially with the public fund commission reform "landing" in the second half of last year, the commission rankings for the first half of 2025 more directly point to the strengths and weaknesses of public fund research and service capabilities, making the latest commission rankings more noteworthy in the industry.

Who is currently in the first tier of the sell-side research industry?

Which securities research institute has made the most progress in the first half of the year?

Which brokerages' research institutes have unexpectedly emerged, and which institutions have fallen from grace?

Commission fees act like a mirror, reflecting the competition among brokerage research institutes and the real strength of the industry...

Top Tier: Expected Reshuffling and Unexpected Developments

Logically, the rankings of top brokerages in the securities industry should be the most stable, but this year is different.

This is because two established institutions in the sell-side research market, Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities, officially merged to form Guotai Haitong Securities. In the commission rankings for the first half of the year, Guotai Haitong made its debut in its merged form, creating an opportunity for reshuffling in the top tier of sell-side research.

However, the final result was somewhat unexpected—the merged Guotai Haitong Securities failed to challenge CITIC Securities' position as the leader in research business—even leaving a significant gap.

According to WIND data statistics: CITIC Securities continued to hold the top position with a total commission of 319 million yuan, achieving a market share of 7.13%, still leading the industry by a significant margin.

Following closely is the merged Guotai Haitong Securities, which garnered 268 million yuan in commission income. After years of being outside the top three in the industry, it finally secured the runner-up position thanks to the merger opportunity. However, in terms of commission income, it is still over 20% behind the top CITIC Securities.

Next is GF Securities, which earned a total commission of 250 million yuan, with a market share of nearly 6%.

Considering that the commissions of GF Securities and Guotai Haitong are quite close, the competition for the "second place" in the sell-side research market will be particularly fierce in the future.

First Tier "Strong Players Gathered"

Excluding the top three brokerages that split over 800 million yuan in commissions, from the fourth to the tenth place, the brokerages that made the cut are all large research teams with complete systems, well-established hierarchies, adequate incentives, and significant comprehensive influence.

In other words, whoever puts in more effort in the second half of the year has the potential to rise and replace the second and third positions in sell-side research rankings. The "ranking variables" in sell-side research still exist The fourth place in commission earnings is Changjiang Securities, which earned a total of 230 million yuan in commissions in the first half of the year. The research team at Changjiang Securities has risen from the middle of the industry to the forefront over the past decade. Changjiang Securities places great importance on sell-side research and has a strong, highly competitive team culture, making it the strongest candidate to challenge the top three.

In fifth place, Huatai Securities has a sell-side research team that is quite different from Changjiang Securities in terms of business characteristics. Among the traditional leading brokerages represented by "San Zhong Yi Hua," Huatai Securities has always been relatively low-key regarding sell-side research, and its research director is not as willing to be in the spotlight as those from other institutions, maintaining an overall low-profile and stealthy approach.

Additionally, other well-known sell-side research teams that made it into the top ten include CITIC Construction Investment Securities and Industrial Securities. Both are traditional sell-side research teams in the industry, and their commission earnings are very close to those of other brokerage firms ranked around them, indicating potential upward movement in the second half of the year.

Zheshang, Shenwan Hongyuan, and CICC "Join Forces to Counterattack"

Among the top ten sell-side research institutions, three have made strong comebacks with significantly improved rankings: Zheshang Securities in sixth place, Shenwan Hongyuan in ninth place, and CICC in tenth place.

These three institutions are among those with relatively high commission growth rates in the top ten and have not undergone mergers like Guotai Junan, so their rise in performance rankings is quite genuine.

The rise of Zheshang Securities' research business is closely related to Qiu Guanhua's appointment as director in early 2020. From 2020 to 2021, Zheshang Securities experienced a continuous commission growth rate of over 100%, rapidly climbing the industry rankings. Subsequently, from 2022 to 2024, it continued to grow, ultimately breaking into the top ten. The first half of 2025 is expected to be another year of counterattack for Zheshang Securities, with its research business ranking among the top six in the industry, achieving its best historical ranking.

In contrast to Zheshang's continuous rise, Shenwan Hongyuan has staged a "revival" as an established research institution. In recent years, Shenwan Hongyuan's commission ranking had once fallen out of the top ten, but it performed significantly well in the first half of this year, directly rising several positions to enter the top nine in the industry.

Moreover, CICC, which has always had a large number of leading analysts in the industry, also achieved good performance in sell-side research commission income this year. Among the top ten brokerages, CICC's commission income showed the best year-on-year performance, even outperforming the merged Guotai Junan. This indicates that after the commission reform in the public offering industry, there is a greater emphasis on the research team's own research capabilities, allowing CICC, which has consistently excelled in research strength, to make a comeback.

Near-First Tier Camp: Powerful Players at the Threshold of the "Billion Yuan Club"

If the top ten brokerages firmly hold nearly "half of the market" in commission earnings, then the brokerages ranked 11th to 20th constitute the near-first tier of the commission market The competition here is particularly intense, with almost every firm vying at the threshold of the "billion yuan club."

According to WIND data, Tianfeng Securities ranks 11th with 135 million yuan, slightly higher than China Merchants Securities and Soochow Securities, both at 134 million yuan, making it difficult to distinguish between them.

Following closely is Guosen Securities, with a commission of 123 million yuan, less than 20 million yuan behind the top three, highlighting the fierce competition.

Continuing down the list, Huachuang Securities secured 110 million yuan, while Guohai, Guoyuan, Dongfang, Minsheng, and Zhongtai all fall within the range of 102-107 million yuan, with a total of about 1.195 billion yuan among the ten institutions. This figure is not much different from the volume of a single firm in the top five, indicating that the second tier is more in a state of "sharing the pie" rather than having one dominant player.

Overall, the landscape of the second tier resembles a "close combat": Tianfeng, China Merchants, and Soochow are "shoulder to shoulder," with Guosen and Huachuang closely following, while the remaining five are "pulling each other" along the billion yuan line.

For this group of brokerages, securing more commission not only means an increase in commission income but, more importantly, proves their research and service capabilities to the entire market.

Regret of the Missing Gem: Guolian Minsheng

Additionally, in this year's commission rankings, one brokerage stands out as particularly special: Guolian Minsheng Securities. This institution also completed a merger in the first half of this year, but the timing and pace of the merger were noticeably later than that of Guotai Junan.

This has resulted in the institution being listed separately in WIND's statistics for fund commission as Minsheng Securities and Guolian Minsheng (i.e., the former Guolian Securities).

If we combine the commission income of Minsheng Securities at 103.88 million yuan with Guolian Minsheng's 77.2 million yuan, the total commission income of Guolian Minsheng Securities could surpass Zheshang Securities, placing it among the top six in the industry.

It can be anticipated that by the end of 2025, Guolian Minsheng Securities will likely be included among the top ten firms.

With the significant ranking improvements of Guotai Junan and Guolian Minsheng after their merger, future mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry are likely to "rise dramatically."

Intermediate Brokerages: Rare Positive Growth Sample

The ten brokerages at the bottom of the list include Guosheng Securities, Huafu Securities, Guolian Minsheng Securities, Founder Securities, Huaxi Securities, Kaiyuan Securities, Northeast Securities, Galaxy Securities, Huayuan Securities, and Everbright Securities.

In terms of amount, the commission scale of this group falls within the range of 45-95 million yuan, averaging about 63 million yuan per firm, which is significantly lower than the level of the top twenty, belonging to the "long tail" below the billion yuan threshold It is noteworthy that there are rare examples of positive growth in this camp: Huayuan Securities grew by 2160.31% year-on-year, and Huafu Securities grew by 311.41%, almost experiencing "explosive" growth.

Among them, the sell-side research business of Huafu Securities is particularly noteworthy. The team’s "brother institution," Huafu International, once introduced well-known macro analyst Hong Hao in the first half of the year. Although the two sides later amicably "parted ways," it is well-known in the industry that Huafu has ambitions in the sell-side research business.

In addition, public information shows that in the first quarter of 2024, Ren Zhiqiang, assistant to the president and director of the research institute of Debang Securities, officially joined Huafu Securities as assistant to the president and director of the research institute. Deputy Director Liu Yang moved from the research institute of Caitong Securities.

Furthermore, Huayuan Securities, which has seen even more rapid growth, was formerly known as Jiuzhou Securities and changed its name after completing its equity change in 2023. This brokerage firm expanded its sell-side team in 2024, resulting in immediate effects. Notably, the well-known Liu Yuhui joined as chief economist, and nearly 30 analysts were brought in during 2024.

Additionally, it is reported that the "mastermind" of this brokerage's research institute is platinum analyst Liu Xiaoning, former deputy general manager of Shenwan Research Institute, who serves as assistant general manager and director of the research institute at this brokerage.

Looking at the entire brokerage commission ranking list for the first half of 2025, it is clear that the long tail is no longer silent, and new variables are brewing.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market has risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at one's own risk