Guotai Junan Securities: Focus on the performance differentiation of Hong Kong stocks in the second quarter report; raw materials may continue to benefit

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Guosen Securities released a research report stating that due to the risk premium being close to historical lows and the downward revision of the Hang Seng Index's performance, Hong Kong stocks did not continue to rise significantly in August, and there was a clear divergence in sector performance. The food delivery battle is a disturbance that must be considered, and the performance downgrades in finance, high dividends, and local stocks after the second quarter report are also worth noting. In terms of sectors, recommendations include: AI direction, innovative drugs, raw materials, and consumer sectors. Among them, in the raw materials sector, "anti-involution" remains the main theme throughout the second half of the year, with many companies showing impressive performance. It is also judged that overseas inflation will continue to rise in the third and fourth quarters, and this sector will continue to benefit.

Guosen Securities' main viewpoints are as follows:

United States: The pace of future interest rate cuts is key

Powell's speech at Jackson Hole was interpreted by the market as a dovish signal. Delving into his remarks, he advocates for a balance between long-term labor and inflation, which is more focused on adapting to the current situation than the FAIT framework from four years ago. In September, the inflation data for August will be disclosed, marking the first month that companies begin to pass on inflation to consumers after tariffs have largely settled. The quality of this data will determine the pace of future interest rate cuts.

The Cook incident at the Federal Reserve is still unfolding. Although subsequent counterclaims will take time, this will undoubtedly increase market concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve. Given the uncertainties ahead, it is recommended to track the trends of cryptocurrencies. If cryptocurrencies do not reach new highs for an extended period, consider the possibility of liquidity worsening the impact on U.S. stocks.

A-shares: Accelerating upward, trading volume is key

A-shares are accelerating upward, and trading volume is key. Guosen Securities reviewed the top areas of the past four bull markets, noting that a 2.9% single-day turnover rate is a critical position. In the process of accelerating upward, the continuous expansion of turnover is necessary. Currently, the turnover rate has reached 2.8% and is gently expanding, indicating that the market is healthy, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of this upward turnover rate.

Additionally, from the perspective of the Kitchin cycle, November-December and April next year are two relatively important time windows. In terms of spatial calculations, using the +1 standard deviation of the PE ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index over the past decade as a reference for the prosperity area.

Hong Kong stocks: Focus on performance divergence

Due to the risk premium being close to historical lows and the downward revision of the Hang Seng Index's performance, Hong Kong stocks did not continue to rise significantly in August, and there was a clear divergence in sector performance. The food delivery battle is a disturbance that must be considered, and the performance downgrades in finance, high dividends, and local stocks after the second quarter report are also worth noting. In terms of sectors, recommendations include:

AI direction: AI remains the main theme for the next few years. AI companies in the internet sector are beginning to see positive changes from multiple angles, including advertising, value-added services, and labor costs, as well as benefiting from the upstream of the domestic computing power industry chain.

Innovative drugs: Innovative drugs are worth holding onto. Although there is significant room for growth, innovative drugs still have the largest upward revision in performance.

Raw materials: "Anti-involution" remains the main theme throughout the second half of the year, with many companies showing impressive performance. It is also judged that overseas inflation will continue to rise in the third and fourth quarters, and this sector will continue to benefit In the consumer sector, performance has begun to diverge, necessitating differentiation. Sub-sectors such as tobacco, trendy toys, aquaculture, and bottled water show relatively high levels of prosperity.

Risk Warning

Uncertainties in geopolitical situations, uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies, uncertainties in the extent of overseas interest rate cuts, and uncertainties in the competitive landscape of certain industries