Zhang Kun's first viewpoint in the bull market "revealed": Such market opportunities are rare, there is no need to be pessimistic about domestic demand, NetEase, KE, and Tencent are quietly earning

After the A-share market has continuously exceeded 2 trillion yuan in trading volume for sixteen days, Zhang Kun's semi-annual report has arrived as scheduled.

This is a freshly released semi-annual report, which contains Zhang Kun's latest views up to recent times (different from the quarterly report in mid-July), as well as all his holdings as of mid-year.

This is a report not to be missed.

Moreover, it offers investment insights that should not be overlooked.

The Public Does Have Consumption Ability

Recently, the hot topic in the A-share market continues to develop in the direction of "focusing on technology and neglecting domestic demand," which is, to some extent, a reflection of macroeconomic concerns.

Zhang Kun has keenly noticed this.

In the latest semi-annual report, Zhang Kun devoted a significant portion to argue that the "long-term pessimism about domestic demand" is meaningless.

His reasons include the following points:

First, from the perspective of per capita disposable income of residents nationwide, it was 32,189 yuan in 2020 and is expected to reach 41,314 yuan in 2024, with a four-year compound annual growth rate of 6.4%.

Second, regarding the balance of national residents' deposits, it was 93 trillion yuan at the end of 2020 and is expected to reach 152 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, with a four-year compound annual growth rate of 13%, significantly exceeding the growth rate of per capita disposable income during the same period.

Third, if we look at the difference between residents' deposits and loans, it was about 30 trillion yuan at the end of 2020 and is expected to grow to about 70 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, indicating that residents' excess savings have increased by about 40 trillion yuan.

From this, Zhang Kun concludes: From the data, the public does have consumption ability.

Increase in Preventive Savings is an "Important Factor"

Considering that "expectations for the future are an important factor determining consumption willingness," Zhang Kun judges: The increase in preventive savings has to some extent crowded out residents' consumption.

There are two supporting factors for this: the recent performance of the consumer confidence index is one such evidence, which was around 120 in 2020, dropped to about 87 in 2022, and has continued in that range until 2025, showing an L-shaped trend.

The performance of real estate prices serves as another "supporting evidence." Zhang Kun believes that real estate, as the main component of residents' assets, has seen continuous price declines, leading to residents feeling a continuous shrinkage of assets, coupled with persistent downward pressure on prices, which further affects residents' willingness to consume.

After experiencing all of this over the past four years, investors have linearly extrapolated the current situation—believing that residents' long-term consumption willingness will continue the current trend.

Consumer Expectations Will Eventually Strengthen

However, Zhang Kun does not agree with this judgment; he even explicitly states:

"The market's current pessimistic expectations for domestic demand... this viewpoint is worth debating."

Zhang Kun's reasons are as follows:

First, this (long-term pessimistic) expectation contrasts with the current state of domestic industries.

(Technological progress and industrial upgrades have been continuously occurring, low value-added industries have migrated out, and high value-added industries have been nurtured and continue to develop, while higher value-added industries can provide employees with higher wages and living standards. **

At the same time, considering China's policy guidelines, compared to the goal proposed at the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee in 2020 of "achieving a per capita GDP at the level of moderately developed countries by 2035," there is still a significant gap between China's current economic development level and the living standards of the people compared to moderately developed countries.

He believes that as long as the power of the market economy is fully utilized, the development of industries will ultimately be reflected in the income and living standards of employees and those in related sectors.

Secondly, the development of industries will lead to an increase in government revenue, which will also help improve the social security system.

In summary, the improvement in residents' income expectations and a better social security system make the deposit growth rate, which exceeds income growth, no longer necessary, thus forming a positive feedback loop for domestic demand again, and the consumer confidence index will eventually shake off its current weak state.

Good opportunities are rare

Zhang Kun calls for seizing this historically rare opportunity, which has been nearly two years in the making. After signs of a bull market appeared, he still holds a similar judgment.

Zhang Kun said that while it is difficult for him to determine how long the market's (pessimistic expectations regarding consumption and domestic demand) will last, he believes that this pessimistic expectation does not logically have a basis for long-term existence.

With the good prices provided by Mr. Market, long-term investors have the opportunity to buy a batch of high-quality listed company shares at undervalued prices, such opportunities are rare.

All holdings "trump cards" revealed

The latest semi-annual report also revealed all of Zhang Kun's holdings, shedding light on his current stock selection preferences and underlying "value judgments."

From the perspective of medium concentration in the mid-tier holdings, some stocks that were once heavily invested have fallen out of the top ten after being reduced.

For example, Meituan.

Although Zhang Kun still insists on holding assets related to domestic demand, the takeaway stock Meituan is probably not on this list.

Taking E Fund Blue Chip as an example, Meituan appeared on the heavy stock list in several quarters. It even included the first quarter of 2025. However, in the second quarter report, Meituan exited the heavy stock list.

The latest mid-term report data shows that Meituan's exit from the top ten heavy stocks is clearly not just due to the decline in stock prices, but also because of Zhang Kun's significant reduction in holdings. Over the course of six months, Zhang Kun reduced nearly half of his shares.

Whether this is a short-term reaction to the competition in the takeaway industry in the first half of the year or a long-term judgment that Meituan's narrative has been broken remains unknown.

However, in fact, this kind of reduction is not the first time. In the second half of 2021, Zhang Kun also once reduced his holdings in Meituan, but returned to it again in 2022.

In addition, the mid-tier holdings show that E Fund Blue Chip slightly increased its holdings in Focus Media and continued to maintain part of its holdings in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Continue to buy leading logistics and express companies

The mid-position holdings of E Fund Quality Enterprise Three-Year Holding Fund and E Fund Asia Select show that Zhang Kun has significantly increased his stake in SF Holding, but it has not directly entered the heavy stock list like E Fund Blue Chip.

Taking E Fund Quality Enterprise Three-Year Holding Fund as an example, this is also the mid-cap stock he bought most noticeably in the first half of the year.

As the absolute leader in China's logistics industry, heavily investing in SF Holding may indicate that Zhang Kun is quite optimistic about investment opportunities in the industrial and logistics sectors at this point in time.

Additionally, from the perspective of E Fund Quality Enterprise Three-Year Holding Fund, Zhang Kun's purchase of KE-W is very subtle.

This is the first time KE has appeared in the fund's holdings, ranking 14th, but its proportion of the fund's net value is only 0.01%. This figure is neither close to zero like the later ones nor significant enough to impact the overall net value.

This seems to be an observational position. It is tracked with a very small allocation.

Reducing Futu, Buying Interactive Brokers

The changes in the mid-position holdings of QDII funds are even more diverse.

Taking E Fund Asia Select as an example, in the first half of the year, besides SF, it also started buying Interactive Brokers from zero.

Correspondingly, it can be seen that E Fund Asia Select has significantly reduced its holdings in Futu, with a reduction of over 70% compared to the end of last year.

Considering that both companies operate cross-border brokerage businesses, this can likely be viewed as a kind of "replacement."

In comparison, Futu's core users are often considered to come from mainland clients, and changes in the regulatory environment mean that both client growth and existing client funds face potential threats.

On the other hand, Interactive Brokers has a more global clientele.

However, it is worth noting that the mid-year report shows that the market value of holdings in Interactive Brokers is still less than that of Futu.

Entry of NetEase, Tencent, KE, and others

In the mid-position holdings of E Fund Quality Select Fund, many fresh faces can be seen. In addition to JD Health, which has already been exposed in other fund heavy stocks in the previous two quarterly reports, there are also NetEase, Tencent Music, KE, and Haitian Flavoring.

Interestingly, both NetEase and Haitian Flavoring had appeared in Zhang Kun's holdings list a long time ago.

For example, NetEase. The last time it appeared in the holdings of E Fund Quality Select Fund was at the end of 2023. In 2024, Zhang Kun completely sold off NetEase, but bought it back in 2025.

Haitian Flavoring is even earlier. In December 2018, it appeared in the mid-position holdings of E Fund Blue Chip. Now, it has been picked up again. However, this time, Zhang Kun chose the H shares.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market has risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at one's own risk