U.S. Stock Outlook | All three major index futures decline, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator is coming tonight, and U.S. stock markets will be closed next Monday

1. As of August 29 (Friday) before the US stock market opens, the three major US stock index futures are all down. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are down 0.33%, S&P 500 futures are down 0.30%, and Nasdaq futures are down 0.51%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 0.44%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.24%, the French CAC 40 index is down 0.42%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.53%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 0.45%, priced at $64.31 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 0.44%, priced at $67.68 per barrel.

Market News

Trading Reminder: US stock market will be closed for one day on September 1 due to Labor Day holiday. Affected by the US Labor Day holiday, the US stock market will be closed for one day on September 1 (Monday). Trading for precious metals and US crude oil futures contracts under the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) will end early at 02:30 Beijing time on the 2nd, and stock index futures contract trading will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 2nd. Trading for Brent crude oil futures contracts under the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) will end early at 01:30 Beijing time on the 2nd.

The Fed's preferred inflation indicator is coming tonight! July core PCE year-on-year is expected to rise to 2.9%, with tariff costs accelerating transmission. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the personal income and spending report on Friday, with the market expecting the core personal consumption expenditures (Core PCE) price index, which the Fed closely monitors, to remain basically stable in July. However, "basically stable" does not mean "completely unchanged." The consensus forecast among economists indicates that the July core PCE price index (excluding food and energy price fluctuations) is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, consistent with the increase in June; however, the year-on-year increase is expected to rise from 2.8% in June to 2.9%, still above the Fed's 2% inflation target. Fed policymakers pay particular attention to core PCE data, as it is considered a better reflection of "underlying inflation trends" than the overall PCE index (which includes food and energy) or the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Fed Chair candidate Waller: Supports a 25 basis point rate cut in September, expects further cuts in the coming months. Fed Governor Waller has once again called for a rate cut, stating that he will support a 25 basis point cut in September and expects further cuts in the next three to six months. Waller is one of the candidates being considered by the Trump administration to succeed Powell as Fed Chair He stated that he currently believes there is no need for a significant interest rate cut during the Federal Reserve's policy-making committee meeting on September 16-17. However, he mentioned that the situation could change if the monthly non-farm payroll report to be released next week "shows a significant economic slowdown and inflation remains effectively controlled."

"Wall Street Oracle" maintains bullish stance on US stocks: AI holds enormous long-term growth potential. Tom Lee, co-founder and research director of the financial market research firm Fundstrat, known as the "Wall Street Oracle," continues to maintain an optimistic stance on the US stock market, pointing out that artificial intelligence (AI) is a key driver of sustained growth. Tom Lee emphasized that the application of AI is still in its early stages and compared it to the decades-long expansion process of the wireless communication industry—from 37 million users to 7 billion users. During the decline of US stocks from February to April, Tom Lee and his team assessed whether the economic fundamentals warranted panic. He explained, "We took a step back and considered all the influencing factors; would the economy really be pushed off a cliff?" The strategist ultimately concluded that holding positions or buying on dips is the appropriate strategy when fear spreads.

US stocks accelerate catch-up with global markets, S&P 500 hits new historical high. The US stock market, which has underperformed since 2025, is recently trying to catch up with global markets. On Thursday, the S&P 500 index once again set a new historical closing record, showing strong rebound momentum. Data shows that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.4% in the past three months, far exceeding the performance of international stock markets. During the same period, the iShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. ETF, which tracks developed and emerging markets outside the US, only rose by 6%. The S&P 500 experienced a significant drop in April this year due to President Trump's announcement of tariff plans, but quickly rebounded thereafter. The "big tech" sector, which has historically driven US stocks to outperform globally, especially NVIDIA (NVDA.US), remains a key market driver.

Federal Reserve favors inflation indicators as they are about to be released, gold prices rise for four consecutive weeks approaching historical highs. Gold prices have risen for the fourth consecutive week, nearing historical highs. Meanwhile, investors are closely watching the upcoming inflation data, as it may play a crucial role in this year's US monetary easing policy. During the Asian session on Friday, gold prices remained stable at around $3,415 per ounce. Previous data on Thursday showed that the growth rate of the US economy exceeded expectations. This data raised concerns about inflation, while Friday's US personal consumption data is expected to accelerate growth. This could limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates—such a situation is typically unfavorable for gold, as gold itself does not pay interest.

Individual Stock News

Dell (DELL.US) Q2 earnings exceed expectations but face sell-off, concerns over narrowing AI server profit margins. Dell Technologies reported a 19% increase in Q2 sales, reaching $29.8 billion, higher than the average expectation of $29.2 billion. The adjusted earnings per share were $2.32, above the analysts' average expectation of $2.30. The financial report indicated that sales of artificial intelligence (AI) servers declined compared to the previous quarter, and the profit margins for these high-performance machines were below analysts' expectations Looking ahead, the company has raised its adjusted earnings per share forecast for the fiscal year ending January next year to approximately $9.55, up from the prediction made in May. The company has also increased its annual sales forecast from about $103 billion to approximately $107 billion. The average analyst expectation is for earnings per share of $9.43 and revenue of $105.2 billion.

Ulta Beauty (ULTA.US) reports mixed results: Q2 earnings surprise boosts full-year guidance, but warns of slowing sales growth. Cosmetics retailer Ulta Beauty's second-quarter performance exceeded expectations, and it raised its full-year earnings forecast, although the company simultaneously warned that consumers may reduce spending. Q2 net profit rose to $260.9 million ($5.78 per share) from $252.6 million ($5.30 per share) in the same period last year. Revenue increased by 7.7% year-on-year to $2.8 billion, surpassing analyst expectations. Ulta's interim CFO Chris Lialios stated during the earnings call that same-store sales in the second half of the year are expected to be flat or only slightly increase (in the low single-digit percentage range)—meaning Ulta currently expects same-store sales to grow by 2.5% to 3.5% this year, up from the previous forecast of no more than 1.5%.

U.S. version of "Huabei" Affirm (AFRM.US) Q4 results exceed expectations. The U.S. version of "Huabei," Affirm Holdings, reported a 33% year-on-year increase in Q4 revenue to $876 million, better than the market expectation of $837 million; net profit was $69.2 million, compared to a loss of $45.1 million in the same period last year; earnings per share were $0.20, also better than the market expectation of $0.11. The total gross merchandise volume (GMV) for the fourth fiscal quarter increased by 43% year-on-year to $10.4 billion. Affirm expects Q1 revenue for fiscal year 2026 to be between $855 million and $885 million, while GMV is expected to be between $10.1 billion and $10.4 billion.

Investors are becoming more selective amid the AI boom! Marvell Technology (MRVL.US) Q3 revenue guidance falls short of expectations. Marvell Technology's Q2 revenue grew by 58% year-on-year to $2.01 billion, just meeting analyst expectations. Among them, data center business revenue increased by 69% year-on-year to $1.49 billion, falling short of the average analyst expectation of $1.51 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.67, also just meeting analyst expectations. In today's market driven by the AI boom, merely "meeting expectations" is no longer satisfactory for investors. However, what disappointed investors even more was the revenue guidance provided by Marvell Technology. The company provided a midpoint revenue guidance of $2.06 billion for Q3, which is below the average analyst expectation of $2.11 billion. Additionally, the company's CEO Matthew Murphy stated during the earnings call that data center revenue is expected to remain flat quarter-on-quarter in Q3 but will significantly strengthen in Q4.

Autonomous driving becomes a negative asset! Survey shows: FSD reduces consumers' willingness to purchase Tesla (TSLA.US). Elon Musk's enthusiastic promotion of Tesla's (TSLA.US) autonomous driving technology has not significantly helped win over potential buyers According to a recent survey, an increasing number of American consumers indicate that Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system drives them away from the brand rather than attracting them to purchase a vehicle. The political consulting firm Slingshot Strategies released the Electric Vehicle Intelligence Report for August, which surveyed 8,000 Americans. The survey showed that only 14% of respondents said FSD would make them more willing to buy a Tesla, while 35% stated that the technology would decrease their willingness to purchase a Tesla. The remaining 51% of respondents indicated that the presence or absence of FSD had no impact on their car-buying decisions.

Intel (INTC.US) confirms receipt of $5.7 billion investment from the U.S. government, with the White House stating that details are "still being finalized." Intel's Chief Financial Officer David Zinser stated on Thursday that the semiconductor giant received $5.7 billion from the U.S. government on Wednesday evening. This amount is part of the U.S. government's plan announced last Friday to acquire a 10% stake in Intel. Zinser also hinted that Intel might seek external investment for its foundry business. It is reported that Intel announced last Friday that it had reached an agreement with the U.S. government, which will invest $8.9 billion in Intel to acquire a 9.9% stake in the company. Upon successful completion of the transaction, the U.S. government will become a major shareholder of Intel. Including the previously obtained $2.2 billion subsidy, the total investment by the U.S. government in Intel amounts to $11.1 billion.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts

Beijing time 20:30: U.S. July Personal Spending MoM (%), U.S. July PCE Price Index YoY (%), U.S. July Wholesale Inventories MoM Preliminary (%).

Beijing time 21:45: U.S. August Chicago PMI.

Beijing time 22:00: U.S. August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Final.

Next day Beijing time 01:00: U.S. total number of active drilling rigs as of the week ending August 29.

Beijing time 22:00: Federal Reserve Governor Cook's hearing will be held. Federal Reserve Governor Cook submitted a motion for a temporary restraining order to the court, requesting a ruling that Trump's removal actions were illegal and prohibiting the Federal Reserve from taking any removal actions during the litigation.

Next day Beijing time 03:30: CFTC will release the weekly positions report