Fidelity International: Gold's ultimate "safe haven" status is solid, and the upward trend is expected to continue for several years
Fidelity International stated that gold's status as the ultimate "safe haven" is solid, and it expects the upward price trend to continue for several years. As the U.S. may enter a rate-cutting cycle and central banks around the world increase their gold reserves, gold is favored for its inflation-hedging and diversification characteristics. Last year, gold prices rose by 27%, and as of August 25 this year, they have increased by another 28%. Against the backdrop of economic slowdown and increasing uncertainty, the long-term investment value of gold has further strengthened
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Ian Samson, a fund manager at Fidelity International, stated that gold prices have risen significantly, but this trend is expected to continue for several years. From a fundamental forecast perspective, the United States is likely to enter a rate-cutting cycle soon, and central banks around the world are buying gold to diversify away from reliance on the US dollar, maintaining gold's ultimate "safe haven" status, which is supported by structural trends.
Fidelity International pointed out that gold is once again favored by investors due to its ability to hedge against inflation and loose economic policies, providing diversification benefits. Last year, gold was one of the best-performing assets, with a price increase of 27%, and this year (as of August 25), it has risen another 28%.
From a macro fundamental scenario forecast, the US economy is expected to slow down in the coming months, potentially leading to stagflation, which is why Fidelity holds a positive outlook on gold. Although inflation remains around 3%, and tariffs may keep prices high, the Federal Reserve may still cut rates. The impact of tariffs and a reduced labor supply will also lead to weak economic growth. Multiple factors such as declining interest rates, sticky inflation, and weak growth should benefit gold's performance.
Additionally, as the main safe-haven competitor to gold, a weaker US dollar will further support gold prices. Under unprecedented large-scale uncertainty and changes in tariff policies, the effects have not yet fully reflected, and gold's status as the ultimate "safe haven" puts it in a favorable position in the face of any further uncertainties. As the US budget deficit continues to widen, raising concerns about currency depreciation, this further enhances gold's long-term investment value.
Meanwhile, the structural development of investing in gold remains solid. Foreign exchange reserve management institutions continue to buy gold, and global gold ETF holdings are also on the rise, along with regions such as mainland China, India, and Turkey structurally increasing their gold holdings to diversify away from reliance on the US dollar. Gold has always been a tool for value preservation and a choice for diversification, without the credit risks associated with fiat currency reserves.
More broadly, gold supply is very limited, which means that even a slight increase in portfolio holdings can impact the market. For example, if investors decide to shift a portion of the current total value of $57 trillion in US assets, gold could benefit
