U.S. stocks accelerate their catch-up with global markets, S&P 500 hits a new all-time high

According to Zhitong Finance APP, the underperforming U.S. stock market since 2025 is recently trying to catch up with global markets. On Thursday, the S&P 500 index once again set a new historical closing record, showing strong rebound momentum.

Data shows that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.4% in the past three months, far exceeding the performance of international stock markets. During the same period, the iShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. ETF, which tracks developed and emerging markets outside the U.S., only rose by 6%. The S&P 500 experienced a significant drop in April this year due to President Trump's announcement of tariff plans, but quickly rebounded thereafter. The "big tech" sector, which has historically driven U.S. stocks to outperform globally, especially NVIDIA (NVDA.US), remains a key driver in the market.

Yardeni Research stated in a report on Wednesday evening: "The strong performance of U.S. stocks earlier this year was briefly interrupted, but it seems to have returned to an upward trajectory, with the recovery of the U.S. market partly benefiting from better-than-expected corporate earnings reports."

It is noteworthy that AI chip giant NVIDIA reported second-quarter results after the market on Wednesday that exceeded overall expectations, but its data center business was slightly below market expectations. Due to U.S. restrictions on NVIDIA's H20 chip exports to China, related revenues were under pressure, leading to a 0.8% drop in stock price on Thursday. However, the S&P 500 still rose by 0.3% that day, with a cumulative increase of 10.5% for the year. In contrast, the ACWI ex U.S. ETF has risen 20.9% year-to-date, still significantly ahead.

Since 2010, Yardeni has advocated for an "invest in the U.S." strategy, noting that this strategy has proven effective. As of Thursday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, which tracks the S&P 500, has risen approximately 482% since the end of 2009, far exceeding the 54% increase of the ACWI ex U.S. ETF during the same period.

In terms of valuation, the S&P 500 currently has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 22 times, indicating that the market has reflected a lot of positive news. Adam Turnquist, Chief Technical Strategist at LPL Financial, warned that the recent volatility in U.S. stocks is extremely low, and investors may be overly complacent, with risks of a "breather" or even a "healthy correction" in the market. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 14.43 on Thursday, having fallen 13.7% this month, well below the long-term average of 20.

Looking ahead, investors will focus on the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for July to further assess inflationary pressures. Jim Baird, Chief Investment Officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors, pointed out that the full impact of tariffs may not yet be fully reflected, and U.S. stocks still face potential inflation risks On Thursday, all three major stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.16%, setting a new closing high, and the Nasdaq Composite Index increasing by 0.53%