U.S. Stock Market Outlook | The three major stock index futures are mixed, NVIDIA's guidance indicates a slowdown in growth, and the U.S. stock market frenzy is cooling down

1. As of August 28th (Thursday) before the US stock market opens, the three major US stock index futures are mixed. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.13%, S&P 500 index futures are down 0.04%, and Nasdaq futures are down 0.14%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 0.03%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.30%, the French CAC 40 index is up 0.31%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 0.08%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 0.09%, at $64.09 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 0.12%, at $67.36 per barrel.

Market News

Fastest ever to break $1 trillion! US companies announce stock buybacks at a record pace, injecting confidence into the US stock market. US companies are planning to buy back stocks at a record pace, indicating strong confidence in the economy. NVIDIA (NVDA.US) is the latest company to join the buyback plan. Data compiled by Birinyi Associates shows that as of August 20th, announced stock buybacks have exceeded $1 trillion, setting a record for the shortest time to reach this level. The previous record was set last October. In recent months, major corporations—especially giants in the finance and technology sectors—have approved large-scale stock buyback plans. NVIDIA announced a plan to buy back $60 billion worth of stock after releasing its quarterly results on Wednesday. Earlier in May, Apple (AAPL.US) announced a $100 billion stock buyback.

Trump may undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve, Citigroup advises investors to bet on long-term US Treasuries and a decline in the dollar. Citigroup strategists have advised investors to increase bets that long-term US Treasuries will underperform and that the dollar will decline, due to the possibility that President Trump may undermine the political independence of the Federal Reserve. Strategists Adam Pickett and Dirk Willer stated in a report on Wednesday that investors should increase their "small positions" betting that 30-year US Treasuries will underperform 5-year US Treasuries, as the yield spread between the two widens, causing the US Treasury yield curve to steepen. They also suggested that investors go long on the euro against the dollar through derivatives. It is reported that Citigroup strategists initiated this bet, known as the "curve steepening trade," in May, anticipating that Trump's tax cuts would lead to an expansion of government debt, thereby putting pressure on long-term Treasuries Credibility of U.S. Official Data Questioned, Private Institutions Rise to Provide "Alternative Solutions." U.S. private enterprises are seizing the opportunity presented by doubts surrounding federal economic data, vigorously developing alternative products to U.S. government statistical data. One platform is now offering data to the public for free—this marks a significant shift from the previous profit-driven model in this field. Other companies are increasing their investment in proprietary statistical data and raising publication frequency: amid rapidly changing government policies and overall economic conditions, the demand for real-time information from clients is continuously rising. Although government data is still regarded as the "gold standard" due to its broad coverage and ability to comprehensively measure the performance of the world's largest economy, economists and traders have significantly increased their acceptance of private indicators.

Tariff Risks Underestimated! Citigroup Warns: U.S. Palladium and Silver Premiums Too Low. Citigroup analysts state that considering the tariff risks that key minerals may face, the gap between U.S. palladium and silver prices and international benchmark prices is too small. Earlier this year, due to traders' expectations that the U.S. would impose tariffs on imported goods, futures prices for all precious metals in the U.S. soared above the benchmark London spot prices. From copper to gold, the volatility in futures prices has brought substantial profits to traders who could predict U.S. trade policies, while those who failed to accurately predict trade policies suffered heavy losses. After palladium, platinum, and silver traded on the COMEX futures exchange were officially exempted in April, these price differentials fell sharply. However, Citigroup analysts stated on Wednesday that the premium for palladium and silver in the U.S. "underestimates the tariff risks, currently only 2-3% higher than prices outside the U.S."

Individual Stock News

"AI Faith" Dented! NVIDIA (NVDA.US) Guidance Shows Slowing Growth, Is the U.S. Stock Market Welcoming a Cooling Signal? NVIDIA's latest guidance indicates a trend of slowing growth after two years of rapid expansion, raising questions about whether "AI faith" has been undermined. The world's most valuable publicly traded company, NVIDIA, has provided a lackluster revenue forecast for the current fiscal quarter, suggesting that after two years of astonishing growth in the artificial intelligence sector, its growth rate is slowing down. The company stated in a release on Wednesday that sales for the third quarter of this fiscal year (ending in October) are expected to be around $54 billion. This figure aligns with Wall Street's average expectations, but some analysts had previously anticipated sales would exceed $60 billion. This forecast does not include revenue from its data center business in China, meaning the current guidance does not consider any revenue from H20 sales to China. This outlook intensifies concerns about the unsustainable pace of investment in artificial intelligence systems.

Strong Demand for Games and Computers, Best Buy (BBY.US) Q2 Performance Exceeds Expectations. Best Buy's second-quarter revenue was $9.44 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, exceeding market expectations by $210 million. The non-GAAP earnings per share were $1.28, surpassing market expectations by $0.06. The company's comparable sales grew by 1.6%, with domestic revenue in the U.S. at $8.7 billion, a 0.9% increase from the same period last year, primarily due to a 1.1% growth in comparable sales. International revenue was $740 million, an 11.3% increase from the same period last year, mainly driven by a 7.6% growth in comparable sales and revenue from Best Buy Express stores opened in Canada after the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 The company incurred $114 million in restructuring costs in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, related to a company-wide restructuring plan launched this quarter. These costs include employee severance benefits and approximately $40 million in asset impairment.

Dollar General (DG.US) Q2 performance exceeds expectations: same-store sales and profits both increase, full-year guidance raised. Dollar General reported sales of $10.7 billion in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, with same-store sales growth of 2.8%, surpassing market expectations of 2.5%. Customer traffic increased by 1.5%, and average transaction value rose by 1.2%. Gross margin improved by 130 basis points to 31.3%, operating profit increased by 8.3% year-on-year, and earnings per share were $1.86, exceeding market expectations of $1.57. As of the end of the quarter, total merchandise inventory was $6.6 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%, with average store inventory down 7.4%. The company also raised its full-year guidance: it expects comparable sales growth of 2.1%-2.6%, up from the previous 1.5%-2.5%, with a median earnings per share of $6.05, exceeding market expectations of $5.78.

Baozun E-commerce (BZUN.US) releases interim results, total net revenue of 4.617 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.63%. Baozun E-commerce announced its interim results for the six months ending June 30, 2025, with total net revenue of 4.617 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.63%. The announcement stated that during the first six months ending June 30, 2025, service revenue grew by 1.8%, mainly driven by strong digital marketing demand from brand partners and robust performance in the sports apparel and accessories categories. Omnichannel expansion remains a major theme for the group's brand partners. The group continues to enhance its omnichannel capabilities. As of June 30, 2025, approximately 48.5% of brand partners collaborated with the group on store operations across at least two channels, compared to 45.8% at the same time last year.

Snowflake (SNOW.US) Q2 performance and fiscal year revenue guidance both exceed expectations, injecting a boost into AI software stocks. Snowflake reported a net loss of $298 million in the second quarter, with a loss per share of 89 cents; revenue was $1.144 billion, a 32% increase year-on-year, exceeding analyst expectations of $1.09 billion. Non-GAAP earnings per share were 35 cents, compared to analyst expectations of 27 cents. The company stated in a release on Wednesday that for the fiscal year ending in January next year, product revenue is expected to be approximately $4.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 27%. This figure exceeds the average analyst expectation of $4.34 billion. In the quarter ending July 31, product sales grew by approximately 32%, reaching $1.09 billion, while analysts' average expectation was $1.04 billion. Remaining performance obligations (a measure of bookings) were $6.9 billion, while the average expectation was $6.78 billion.

HP (HPQ.US) Q3 performance exceeds expectations amid recovery in the PC market, expects trade-related costs to be fully offset soon. Despite HP reporting better-than-expected third-quarter results and providing guidance that was generally in line with market expectations, investors remain concerned about economic uncertainty and the impact of higher costs associated with U.S. President Trump's trade policies The financial report shows that for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2025 ending July 31, the company's revenue increased by 3.1% year-on-year to $13.9 billion, better than the analysts' average expectation of $13.7 billion. The adjusted earnings per share were $0.75, exceeding the analysts' average expectation of $0.74. In the third quarter, HP's personal systems business revenue grew by 6% year-on-year to $9.9 billion, with PC sales also increasing by 6%.

CrowdStrike (CRWD.US) Q3 revenue guidance falls short of expectations, plans to acquire Onum to strengthen security business. Cybersecurity company CrowdStrike reported a Q2 revenue increase of 21% year-on-year to $1.17 billion, surpassing market expectations of $1.15 billion; the adjusted earnings per share were $0.93, also higher than the market expectation of $0.83. Annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew by 20% year-on-year to $4.66 billion. Looking ahead, CrowdStrike expects Q3 revenue for fiscal year 2026 to be between $1.21 billion and $1.22 billion, below the market expectation of $1.23 billion; the company also expects adjusted earnings per share to be between $0.93 and $0.95, higher than the market expectation of $0.91. CrowdStrike has also raised its full-year performance guidance, now forecasting full-year revenue to be between $4.75 billion and $4.81 billion; earnings per share are expected to be between $3.60 and $3.72, better than the market expectation of $3.51.

Trip.com (TCOM.US) reports a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.846 billion yuan in Q2, an increase of 26.43% year-on-year. Trip.com reported a net revenue of 14.843 billion yuan (same unit below) in Q2, an increase of 16.22% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to Trip.com Group Limited was 4.846 billion yuan, an increase of 26.43% year-on-year; basic earnings per share were 7.34 yuan. In Q2 2025, the revenue from accommodation bookings was 6.2 billion yuan ($869 million), up 21% year-on-year, mainly due to the growth in accommodation bookings. Accommodation booking revenue increased by 12% quarter-on-quarter, driven by increasingly strong travel demand, particularly during holidays. In Q2 2025, the revenue from transportation ticketing was 5.4 billion yuan ($753 million), an increase of 11% year-on-year, mainly due to the growth in transportation ticketing bookings. Transportation ticketing revenue remained stable quarter-on-quarter.

Noah Holdings (NOAH.US) reports a net income attributable to shareholders of 179 million yuan in Q2, an increase of 79% year-on-year. Noah Holdings reported a net revenue of 629.5 million yuan (same unit below) in Q2, an increase of 2.2% year-on-year; the net income attributable to Noah shareholders was 179 million yuan, an increase of 79% year-on-year; basic earnings per American Depositary Share were 2.56 yuan. During the period, the increase in net revenue was mainly due to the increase in the distribution of overseas private equity fund products and domestic private equity fund products. Compared to Q1 2025, net revenue increased by 2.4%, mainly due to the increase in revenue contributed by investment product distribution. In terms of wealth management, Noah provides global investment products and value-added services for high-net-worth Chinese investors worldwide. Noah primarily distributes private equity products, private securities fund products, public fund products, and other products denominated in RMB, USD, and other currencies Li Auto (LI.US) reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.093 billion yuan in the second quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 0.91%. In the second quarter, Li Auto's vehicle sales revenue was 28.885 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%; total revenue was 30.246 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.093 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.91%; basic earnings per share were 0.54 yuan. Li Auto delivered 111,074 vehicles in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. Li Auto expects third-quarter deliveries to be between 90,000 and 95,000 vehicles.

"Cathie Wood" doubles down on cryptocurrency! Increased holdings in Ethereum by $15.6 million in the major player Bitmine (BMNR.US). The investment management firm Ark Invest, led by renowned fund manager Cathie Wood, purchased $15.6 million worth of shares in Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR.US) through its three actively managed exchange-traded funds on Wednesday. Most of the acquisition was completed through Ark's flagship fund ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK.US), which bought 227,569 shares of Bitmine. Meanwhile, the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW.US) increased its holdings by 70,991 shares, and the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF.US) purchased an additional 40,553 shares.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

At 20:30 Beijing time: Revision of the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the United States (%), initial jobless claims for the week ending August 23 (10,000).

At 22:00 Beijing time: U.S. July seasonally adjusted existing home sales index month-on-month (%).

At 22:30 Beijing time: EIA natural gas inventory change in the week ending August 22 (billion cubic feet).

The next day at 06:00 Beijing time: Federal Reserve Governor Waller will speak on monetary policy.

Earnings Forecast

Friday morning: Dell (DELL.US), Ulta Beauty (ULTA.US)