The clearest data research: AI has impacted employment for young people in the United States, especially for "students studying computer science."

Recent research shows that AI has significantly weakened the employment prospects of young people.

A new study released on Tuesday by three economists from Stanford University points out that generative AI is substantially undermining the job prospects of a portion of young Americans, particularly those in industries where "tasks most easily replaced by generative AI" are prevalent, such as software development.

In these jobs, tools like ChatGPT can easily perform tasks that were originally the responsibility of humans, thus reducing the demand for these positions among young people. For example, as of July this year, the number of employed programmers aged 22-25 has decreased by nearly 20% compared to the peak at the end of 2022.

The researchers reached these conclusions by analyzing anonymous employment data from tens of millions of employees, covering thousands of companies and including information on employees' ages and job roles. Stanford economist Erik Brynjolfsson stated:

"When we specifically observe those young employees who are highly impacted by AI, the changes are very evident."

Stanford's New Research: The "Hard Evidence" of AI's Impact on Young Employment is Here

This study has not yet undergone peer review or formal publication, but it is already considered one of the clearest empirical studies demonstrating the impact of AI on employment structures. It also addresses a major concern since OpenAI released ChatGPT in November 2022—whether AI will massively replace human jobs.

While there has been sporadic evidence of AI affecting certain professions (such as software programming), there has been a lack of "hard data" to prove that AI is significantly suppressing the job market. There are two main reasons for this. On one hand, ChatGPT was launched against the backdrop of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and economic slowdown, making it difficult to determine whether macroeconomic factors or AI are causing employment changes. On the other hand, the U.S. Department of Labor's monthly employment data sampling is limited and lacks fine distinctions by age and occupation.

Stanford economists used data from payroll processing giant ADP, which is very detailed and includes employees' ages, job categories, salaries, and employment status, providing a more nuanced and accurate picture than government employment reports, allowing them to isolate the impact of AI.

Who is Most Easily Replaced by AI? Young People, Programmers, Customer Service

In positions where generative AI is most easily replaceable, such as software development, front desk reception, translation, and customer service, the employment growth in these roles has noticeably slowed down from the end of 2022 to early 2023, with the impact being greatest on young people. Stanford economist Brynjolfsson summarized:

"From the end of 2022 and into early 2023, you can see a significant divergence in employment trends for young employees in these industries compared to other sectors."

Taking software development as an example, after the release of ChatGPT at the end of 2022, the number of young developers aged 22-25 in this field had decreased by nearly 20% by July 2025 compared to the peak at the end of 2022. In contrast, the number of programmers aged 26 to 30 remained stable, and the number of older programmers continued to grow. Compared to younger individuals, older software engineers possess more "skills that are hard to be replaced by AI"—such as cross-department communication, experience in delivering products based on business objectives, understanding customer needs, and coordinating resources. These abilities are difficult for AI to replicate, so companies still value them highly.

Research has also found that this declining pattern is not limited to the programming industry; customer service positions have also seen similar trends. This indicates that the impact of AI is not just an issue for a specific industry.

Economists at Stanford particularly emphasize that they have ruled out other potential interfering factors, such as differences in sensitivity to interest rate hikes among different companies, the ease of remote work or outsourcing for certain positions, an overall decline in hiring in the tech industry, and the pandemic's disruption to education. Therefore, the changes in employment are more likely indeed caused by AI.

Workplace Paradox: Without "Replaceable" Entry-Level Experience, Where Will Experts Come From?

This research brings about a paradox in the labor market—if young people can no longer accumulate experience through work (because AI has automated "entry-level tasks"), then who will succeed today's senior experts in the future?

Professor Brynjolfsson from Stanford stated:

"We may need to train young people more consciously, rather than just letting them go to work and 'figure it out on their own' as before."

AI Is Not All Bad News: Assistive AI Makes Young People More Attractive

However, there are also positive examples. Economists at Stanford found that in industries where "AI does not replace humans but assists humans in improving efficiency," the employment growth for young people even exceeds the overall employment growth rate. Although this is not enough to offset the employment decline in other positions replaced by AI, it at least brings hope.

While the focus of concern is mostly on "which positions generative AI will replace," AI may also help some young people perform their jobs better. For example, AI can assist doctors in making diagnoses faster and more accurately.

Professor Brynjolfsson pointed out that merely having AI do tasks for people, while it can save costs, does not create new value. What is truly more valuable is using AI to do "things that humans could not do," thereby expanding human capabilities, which will make companies willing to hire more people instead of laying them off. He said:

"I am pleased to see in the data that this augmented use of AI can indeed bring about more job opportunities."