Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Analysis | U.S. Tariffs Disrupt Global Supply Chain, Can Cambricon Surpass Moutai to Break the Spell?

[Market Dissection]

After yesterday's market close, the positive sentiment from AI significantly stimulated the Hong Kong stock market in the early session, but the situation took a sharp turn in the afternoon, closing down 1.27%.

Trump's move to impeach Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook has stirred up a lot of noise, with Cook refusing to compromise and stating she will appeal. This incident indicates that U.S. government departments can gradually "cleanse" the hawkish voices within the FOMC and tend to approve candidates that align more closely with their policy goals, fundamentally changing the voting pattern of the FOMC and paving the way for long-term easing policies. The aftereffects are expected to gradually emerge, leading to the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rising to 4.9%; the yield on UK bonds of the same duration is nearing a 27-year high; and Japanese bond yields are also approaching record highs. Gold and other assets continue to be favored, with frequently mentioned China National Gold International (02099) and China Nonferrous Mining (01258) both rising over 2%.

New issues are emerging one after another. Starting from August 29, the U.S. will suspend tax exemptions on imported packages valued at $800 or less, meaning that small packages will need to pay all applicable taxes and fees. According to statistics from the United Nations Universal Postal Union on the 26th, due to the uncertainties related to transportation services under the new U.S. regulations, 25 member countries have announced a suspension of sending packages to the U.S. This event has a significant impact; U.S. Customs data shows that approximately 1.36 billion packages entered the U.S. under the "minimum tax exemption" policy in 2024, with a total value of up to $64.6 billion. This policy saves U.S. consumers about $11 billion to $13 billion annually. A suspension would severely disrupt people's lives, as a large number of goods would be unable to be shipped to the U.S., and the tariff costs for those still being shipped would inevitably be passed on to consumers, continuously increasing inflationary pressures in the U.S. At the same time, this abuse of tariffs poses a significant harm to the U.S.'s own credibility and creates a huge impact on the supply chains of countries around the world. These negative impacts will eventually rebound on the U.S. stock market, and overseas markets will inevitably be affected as well.

The U.S. approach ultimately results in an increasingly closed economy, while other countries are more determined to pursue self-development and domestic demand. China has previously announced tariffs on various agricultural products originating from the U.S., reducing the quantity of imported agricultural products and potentially boosting domestic agricultural demand. October Rice Field (09676) rose nearly 10% today, and the subsequent countermeasures regarding rare earth permanent magnets, such as Jinli Permanent Magnet (06680), are still worth paying attention to.

Domestically, today, Cambricon Technologies (688256.SH) continued to strengthen, surging nearly 10% during the session, with the stock price reaching a high of 1464 yuan, briefly surpassing Kweichow Moutai to become the new "king of stocks." Some believe this is a curse: when the stock price exceeds Kweichow Moutai, it is "either dead or injured" in the short term. Today, it indeed seems to have some of this meaning, as the afternoon weakness had a negative impact on the market. However, the ultimate surpassing of "sauce-flavored technology" by tech stocks is an irreversible trend; it cannot be that a single liquor stock holds the highest price in the market Additionally, last night, the news of Guojin Securities adjusting the financing margin ratio attracted market attention. According to the announcement, this adjustment only applies to financing contracts for newly opened securities, excluding those on the Beijing Stock Exchange, starting from that day onwards, raising the financing margin ratio from 80% to 100%. However, existing financing contracts opened before August 27, 2025, will continue to follow the margin ratio at the time of contract opening, implementing a "new and old distinction." The market is concerned that this indicates a reduction in leverage. In fact, this is merely the action of an individual brokerage and does not reflect an overall adjustment. Moreover, although the financing balance of A-shares has exceeded 2 trillion yuan for 12 consecutive trading days since August 11, the balance of margin trading as a percentage of A-share circulating market value and the margin trading volume as a percentage of A-share transaction volume are both at historically central levels, far below the peak in 2015. Therefore, it cannot be said that there is a comprehensive cooling; it is just to slow down the bull market and control the pace. Today, securities firms like Shenwan Hongyuan (06806) fell over 5%.

The biggest market highlight today is the State Council's issuance of the "Opinions on Deepening the Implementation of the 'Artificial Intelligence+' Action," mentioned in yesterday's sector focus. The AI sector as a whole performed well, especially SenseTime (00020), which surged nearly 9%, and Fourth Paradigm (06682), which rose nearly 6%. Shanghai Fudan (01385) and Maifushi (02556) also increased over 3%. SMIC (00981) saw a significant intraday rise but was pulled down by the broader market towards the end.

The consumer electronics sector is quite lively. In the early hours of August 27, Apple released the invitation for the iPhone 17/Pro series launch event. This year's event will start at 1:00 AM Beijing time on September 10, with the theme: "Ahead, Super Exciting." A notable change in the iPhone 17 series is that the new models may feature a horizontal camera module on the back, similar to Google's Pixel phones. Upgrades and value enhancements are expected in areas such as SoC chip AI capabilities, heat dissipation, FPC soft boards, batteries, and back covers. In addition to the iPhone, the Apple Watch and AirPods will also be updated. The iPhone 17 series has entered large-scale production. Recently, multiple media outlets reported that Foxconn, as Apple's main contract manufacturer, is currently conducting seasonal recruitment at its Zhengzhou plant. Apple's latest financial report for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025 shows total revenue of $94.036 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10%, marking the strongest quarterly growth since December 2021, far exceeding the market expectation of $89.53 billion. Net profit reached $23.43 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9%, with earnings per share of $1.57, also higher than the expected $1.43.

It is worth mentioning that Huawei officially announced today that it will hold the Huawei Mate XTs Extraordinary Master and All-Scenario New Product Launch Conference on September 4, where it will unveil a new Huawei foldable smartphone. Huawei is moving ahead of Apple this time to seize market share. Core supplier Lens Technology (06613) reported strong mid-year results, rising nearly 8% today, while GoerTek (01415) increased nearly 2% Other catalysts indicate that the scope of national subsidies is expanding, with a 15% subsidy available for 3C digital products priced below 6,000 yuan. Currently, Luxshare Precision is preparing for its IPO in Hong Kong. Reports suggest that this IPO is expected to raise over $1 billion, with funds primarily allocated for global strategic layout. TCL Electronics (01070) reported a revenue of HKD 54.777 billion in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%; net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 1.09 billion, a year-on-year increase of 67.8%, with shares rising nearly 7% today.

【Sector Focus】

Automobile manufacturers in vehicle manufacturing are crossing over into the robotics sector. Jin Yuzhi, CEO of Huawei's Intelligent Automotive Solutions BU, emphasized the connection between the two innovative industries of autonomous driving and robotics. XPeng Motors provided a timeline for the mass production of humanoid robots during its earnings call earlier this month—XPeng's humanoid robot is expected to enter mass production in the second half of 2026, with the next generation humanoid robot set to debut at the 1024 XPeng Technology Day. According to incomplete statistics, over 20 domestic and foreign automotive companies, including the aforementioned firms, have disclosed their progress in entering the robotics sector, including Xiaomi, SAIC, GAC, Seres, BYD, Toyota, and Tesla.

Yushu Technology's newly launched R1 humanoid robot is priced at only $5,900, stands 4 feet tall, and is equipped with optional dexterous hands and 24-40 degrees of freedom, with the capability to upgrade to an NVIDIA Jetson Orin GPU to drive various autonomous models. This is currently the lowest-priced humanoid robot product known.

Main varieties: In addition to UBTECH (09880) and Horizon Robotics-W (09660); attention should be paid to cross-industry players such as XPeng Motors (09868), Nidec (00179), Minth Group (00425), and Li Auto (00558).

【Stock Picking】

Horizon Robotics-W (09660): Collaborating to Promote Robotics Intelligence with Significant Revenue Growth in the First Half of the Year

Recently, Horizon signed a cooperation agreement with Orbbec and its subsidiary Digua Robotics in Beijing to jointly promote technological innovation and application in the robotics industry. In the first half of 2025, the company recorded revenue of 1.567 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.6%, with a gross profit margin of 65.4%.

Commentary: This cooperation can be seen as a strong alliance: Orbbec provides the "eyes" of the robot (3D visual perception). Horizon (Digua Robotics) provides the "brain" and "nerve center" of the robot (computing chips, underlying software, and decision control). Horizon Robotics saw significant revenue growth in the first half of the year. The company has become a pioneer in the field of mid-to-high-end assisted driving algorithms, driving industry transformation through software-defined vehicles. During the reporting period, the company authorized algorithms and software to over 30 automotive manufacturers and ecosystem partners, providing design and technical services to help clients shorten product development cycles and reduce upfront development costs. Revenue from authorization and service business reached 738 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, maintaining a steady growth trend. Recently, Horizon launched the latest version of the HSD (Horizon SuperDrive™) system Significant upgrade to the driver assistance system. The new version of HSD adopts a true end-to-end architecture, featuring strong defensive driving capabilities, with driving performance very similar to that of professional drivers, pushing driver assistance into a new stage of humanized experience. Horizon HSD has entered the countdown to mass production, and will debut this year on the Chery Exeed Star Era E05, marking the start of mass production and delivery. In addition, Horizon has reached cooperation intentions with nearly 10 global automotive brands, aiming to bring a safe, professional, and comfortable HSD full-scene driver assistance experience to more users in the future. It is worth mentioning that Horizon has also received the world's first and only ISO 8800 functional safety certification for AI in road vehicles, becoming a "safety trust passport" to the global market. Data shows that Horizon has over 5 million households and more than 10 billion miles of safe travel verification, as well as field testing data supporting over 1.5 million kilometers in more than 50 countries overseas. In terms of products, the Journey 6B processing hardware has successfully been activated. The Journey 6B features a highly integrated design that can double the performance of the front-view integrated ADAS system while significantly reducing system costs, power consumption, and size. Currently, the Journey 6 series processing hardware has formed a complete product portfolio covering high, medium, and low processing capabilities, capable of serving both mainstream and high-end markets, laying a solid foundation for the company's future revenue growth