"Takeout War" Situation: Meituan's "Exclusive Advantage Shaken for the First Time," Alibaba's "Momentum Strengthened," JD.com "Temporarily Withdraws"

After JD.com and Taobao Flash Sale made a strong entry, how far has the "takeout war" progressed?

According to news from Chasing Wind Trading Platform, a research report released by UBS on the 25th shows that currently, the market share of Meituan, the leader in the takeout industry, is being actively eroded by Ele.me, and its exclusive merchant advantage that has maintained its moat is showing signs of weakening for the first time. Meanwhile, JD.com has temporarily withdrawn from the intense subsidy war, shifting to a strategy that focuses more on return on investment.

The report data indicates that the overall market continues to grow rapidly under the impetus of high subsidies, with the year-on-year growth rate of total orders accelerating from 7% in the first quarter to 17% in the second quarter, further rising to 33% in July and 39% from August to now.

At the end of April this year, Alibaba integrated the catering merchant resources of Ele.me and launched "Taobao Flash Sale," officially joining the takeout war. Measured by order volume, Ele.me's market share has soared from about 11%/13% before competition/second quarter to the latest 28%, showing strong growth momentum; Meituan's share has dropped from an absolute dominant position of 85%/74% before competition/second quarter to the current 65%; JD.com's market share has decreased from 13% in the second quarter to 7%.

Meituan's Merchant Advantage Faces Setback for the First Time

One major signal worth noting in the report is that Meituan's exclusive merchant advantage has shown signs of loosening for the first time.

The report shows that the daily active users (DAU) of Meituan's exclusive cooperative merchants experienced a year-on-year decline for the first time in July. A specific example is that the well-known tea brand Heytea has recently launched on the Ele.me platform.

Data shows that the total overlap of merchants on the three major platforms is increasing, which means that more and more merchants are choosing to operate on multiple platforms simultaneously. This trend is directly challenging the competitive barriers that Meituan established through exclusive cooperation in the past.

The report believes that as the overlap of merchants across platforms increases, Meituan's monetization rate may face pressure. This is because merchants can use the lower rates offered by JD.com and Ele.me as leverage to negotiate higher rebates with Meituan.

However, in terms of core fulfillment capability, Meituan's foundation remains solid.

UBS pointed out that although all platforms have increased subsidies for third-party riders to ensure sufficient capacity, leading to an increase in rider overlap and potentially higher unit fulfillment costs, both Meituan and Ele.me's own capacity are growing. Overall, Meituan's fulfillment capability has basically not been challenged so far. However, in terms of user growth, challengers are showing stronger traffic attraction. According to QuestMobile data, JD.com’s weekly active user growth year-on-year is the most rapid, reaching 31%; Alibaba and Meituan are at 16% and 7%, respectively.

However, the report also adds that the increase in user activity may partly stem from consumers comparing prices across different applications, and whether this can ultimately convert into effective GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) remains to be seen.

Alibaba's Momentum Strengthens, JD.com Adjusts Strategy

The report also emphasizes that Ele.me is gaining momentum in recent order volume and merchant recruitment.

UBS's channel research shows that Ele.me is striving to match and slightly exceed JD.com’s discount intensity to cultivate consumer mindset, fully leveraging its strong net cash position.

At the same time, Alibaba's local life is also planning to launch a "Flash Group Buy" service, which directly competes with Meituan's low-ticket group buying service "Pin Hao Fan."

JD.com, under intense competitive pressure, has chosen to prioritize return on investment and optimize promotional efficiency, which aligns with its declining market share trend.

Compared to Meituan, JD.com is More Optimistic About Alibaba

Based on the current competitive landscape, UBS stated in the report that it is more optimistic about Alibaba in the short term.

The report believes that Alibaba's stock price is still at a 15% discount compared to its peak this year, with significant long-term value yet to be released; JD.com’s expected price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 is only 7 times, which is not high, but the market may be waiting for signals of stable profitability.

For Meituan, UBS is confident in its moat and execution capability to maintain long-term leadership, but considering the market's high expectations and the premium valuation of 23 times/16 times for the expected price-to-earnings ratio in 2025/2026, it holds a cautious attitude in the short term.

The report expects that as the peak of the summer season ends, the platform's subsidies for food delivery will gradually ease. However, entering the fourth quarter's Double 11 shopping festival, competition in non-food categories may continue, and related stocks may remain volatile in the foreseeable future.

The report states that when the dust settles on competition (possibly entering the fourth quarter), the focus will shift to service differentiation, ecosystem synergy, and operational efficiency