"Strong in the first half, suppressed in the second half"! Goldman Sachs summarizes NVIDIA's stock price pattern, "It is difficult to outperform the market before the end of the year."
According to Goldman Sachs analysis, although they are optimistic about NVIDIA in the long term, its stock price may struggle to outperform the market in the second half of the year, ushering in an "AI autumn." Historical patterns show that NVIDIA's stock price typically performs strongly in the first half of the year due to clear capital expenditure guidance from customers, but tends to be subdued in the second half due to a lack of such hard data catalysts. The firm expects Broadcom to exhibit a similar trend, while AMD and Marvell may maintain range-bound fluctuations before the end of the year
In the frenzy of AI, NVIDIA's stock price seems to follow a seasonal pattern of "autumn harvest and winter storage."
According to news from the Wind Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs issued a tactically cautious view in a report released on August 24: although it is "very optimistic" about NVIDIA's long-term growth prospects, based on historical trading patterns, the stock price of this chip giant may struggle to outperform the market in the coming months.
The firm stated that NVIDIA's stock price performance exhibits a regularity, rising in the first half of the year due to clear positive data, but facing pressure in the second half due to a lack of new hard catalysts. For example, its stock price soared 149% in the first half of 2024, but only rose 12% in the second half.
Analysts believe that until new quantitative data points emerge that can drive upward revisions in earnings expectations, market uncertainty regarding the long-term (i.e., 2027) development direction will suppress stock price trends until the end of 2025, similar to the trading patterns in the second half of 2023 and 2024.
For investors, this means that NVIDIA may be entering a tactical consolidation period of "AI autumn." Goldman Sachs pointed out that from now until January 2026, when hyperscale computing customers provide formal capital expenditure guidance, the market will closely monitor three potential driving factors: any quantitative comments from hyperscale computing customers in October, the company's explanation of the launch timing for the next-generation "Rubin" platform, and further clarifying information regarding its business in China and U.S. export controls.
However, Goldman Sachs emphasized that this is only a short-term tactical judgment. The report reiterated that based on positive capital expenditure comments from hyperscale computing customers and the demand outlook from non-traditional customers, they remain "very optimistic" about NVIDIA's prospects for extraordinary growth in 2026.
History Repeats? "Surge in the First Half, Consolidation in the Second Half"
Goldman Sachs' analysis reveals a distinct pattern in NVIDIA's stock price performance. NVIDIA's stock price typically performs well in the first half of each year, primarily driven by the "quantitative guidance" on annual capital expenditures released by hyperscale computing customers such as Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Google. These specific figures provide the market with solid growth expectations, driving upward revisions in earnings forecasts and stock prices.
However, as the second half of the year approaches, the situation often changes. It has been observed that although these major customers will continue to provide "qualitative comments" on capital expenditure direction, the lack of new hard data to further enhance market expectations allows other factors to exert a greater influence on stock prices.
This pattern has been particularly evident over the past two years:
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2024 Review: NVIDIA's stock price soared 149% in the first half of 2024, benefiting from unexpectedly high capital expenditure guidance at the beginning of the year. However, entering the second half, concerns about "peak worries" regarding 2025 capital expenditures, competition from ASICs, and doubts about the timing of the Blackwell product launch emerged, leading to a mere 12% increase in the second half.
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2023 Review: Similarly, after ChatGPT ignited the AI narrative, NVIDIA's stock price skyrocketed 189% in the first half of 2023. But in the second half, despite strong fundamentals, investors began to question the sustainability of this spending boom, resulting in stock price valuations being pressured, with the increase narrowing to 17% in the second half.
Three Key Variables Determine Year-End Trends
Looking ahead to the remainder of 2025, Goldman Sachs believes that Nvidia's stock performance will depend on the progress of three key variables before major clients provide new annual guidance.
First, comments from hyperscale computing clients during the release of their third-quarter financial reports in October. The market will look for any quantitative clues that may hint at the scale of capital expenditures in 2026, rather than just directional descriptions.
Second, the launch timeline for Nvidia's next-generation "Rubin" product architecture. Any clear information regarding the release cadence of this platform will influence the market's judgment on its future technological leadership and growth cycle.
Finally, clarity regarding its business in China. As U.S. export control policies continue to evolve, any further clarification on the business outlook in the Chinese market will become an important factor affecting investor sentiment. Goldman Sachs believes that if there is no substantial progress in these areas, the stock price may come under pressure due to a lack of catalysts.
Despite issuing short-term warnings, Goldman Sachs has not changed its long-term positive outlook on Nvidia. The report reiterates that based on positive capital expenditure comments from cloud vendors and the demand outlook from non-traditional clients, they are "very optimistic" about Nvidia achieving excess growth in 2026.
Goldman Sachs currently maintains a "Buy" rating on Nvidia (NVDA) with a 12-month price target of $200, based on a normalized earnings per share of $5.75 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.
AI Industry Divergence: Broadcom Aligns, AMD and Marvell May Consolidate
Goldman Sachs' report also provides tactical outlooks for several other AI-related semiconductor companies.
For Broadcom, Goldman Sachs expects its trading dynamics in the second half of 2025 to be similar to Nvidia's, as the market has largely digested its AI business guidance for fiscal years 2026 and 2027. New XPU clients and incremental data from AI networking business will be key to whether the stock can outperform the market.
For AMD, Goldman Sachs believes that the potential growth of its data center GPUs in 2026 and the short-term strength of PC and server CPUs have already been reflected in the current stock price. The company's investor day event scheduled for November will serve as a "litmus test" for its data center GPU revenue expectations and outlook for 2026.
For Marvell, Goldman Sachs expects its stock price to remain range-bound for the remainder of the year. The growth visibility from Amazon's custom computing business and Microsoft's business in the second half of 2026 will be key to driving the stock price breakout.
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