U.S. Stock Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Decline Together, NVIDIA Earnings Report and PCE Data to Make a Significant Debut This Week

1. As of August 25 (Monday) before the US stock market opened, the three major US stock index futures all fell. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were down 0.18%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.22%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.31%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index was down 0.25%, the UK FTSE 100 index was up 0.13%, the French CAC 40 index was down 0.65%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index was down 0.44%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil was up 0.79%, at $64.16 per barrel. Brent crude oil was up 0.70%, at $67.69 per barrel.

Market News

After the interest rate cut frenzy, US stocks face a "big test": NVIDIA (NVDA.US) earnings report and PCE data are set to make a significant impact this week! After Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell opened the door for a rate cut in September, US stocks ended last week's trading with consecutive gains. This week, the earnings report of NVIDIA, the world's highest-valued company and a leader in the AI industry, will test the summer rebound that has pushed the stock market back near historical highs. Following a brief pullback at the beginning of the week, Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole annual meeting triggered a significant market surge, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a record high, with other major indices also rising strongly. NVIDIA will release its quarterly earnings report after the market closes on Wednesday, which will be the core event of the week. Meanwhile, the economic calendar will be busier than the earnings calendar, with multiple data releases including inflation data, GDP growth, housing sales, and consumer confidence.

"Wall Street's oracle" warns: The market is overly optimistic about the Fed's interest rate cuts. Tom Lee, a strategist at Fundstrat known as "Wall Street's oracle," has warned investors that the market's current expectations for potential Fed rate cuts are overly optimistic. Lee stated that while there are signs of a slowdown in the US economy, persistent inflation remains a significant issue. He believes the Fed must make difficult choices. Lee explained, "On one hand, the economy is showing signs of slowing down, and lowering interest rates may have a stimulating effect." He stated, "On the other hand, inflation remains a concerning issue, and cutting rates too early could exacerbate inflation." He believes the market's current expectations for rate cuts are overly optimistic. Lee emphasized that the Fed should continue to "rely on data and not rush to make decisions," and that significant actions should only be taken when there is clear evidence of slowing inflation and a weakening labor market Most investment banks expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, while Morgan Stanley and Bank of America remain cautious. Major investment banks, including Barclays, BNP Paribas, and Deutsche Bank, now anticipate that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in September. Previously, at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell shifted his tone, discussing the increasing risks in the labor market. Powell's remarks at Jackson Hole emphasized the changes in the Fed's response mechanism, now placing greater importance on labor market risks. Meanwhile, Macquarie and Deutsche Bank have revised their expectations, forecasting rate cuts of 25 basis points in September and December, respectively. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are the only two major Wall Street brokerages that have not yet predicted a rate cut by the Fed in September. Morgan Stanley stated that if upcoming labor and inflation data confirm further economic weakness, the Fed is likely to cut rates in September.

Stock News

Pinduoduo (PDD.US) continues its "100 billion support" to reduce commissions and costs for merchants, with Q2 revenue growth slowing again. Affected by the increased industrial investment from the "100 billion support," Pinduoduo's Q2 revenue growth slowed to 7% year-on-year, marking several consecutive quarters of slowdown. In the second quarter, Pinduoduo launched a "100 billion-level" initiative to benefit merchants in the e-commerce industry, providing real financial support to merchants and industries. On one hand, it continues to reduce commissions and costs for millions of merchants; on the other hand, it increases support for small and medium-sized merchants, new-type merchants, and brand merchants, promoting multi-level high-quality development in various agricultural regions and industrial belts.

Growth in coffee business faces obstacles, Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP.US) acquires JDE Peet's for €15.7 billion to break the deadlock. Keurig Dr Pepper announced the cash acquisition of Dutch coffee giant JDE Peet's NV for €15.7 billion (approximately $18.4 billion), aiming to revitalize its pressured coffee business through a strong partnership. According to the announcement released on Monday, the transaction will be completed at a price of €31.85 per share, representing a 20% premium over JDE Peet's closing price on August 22. Since the merger of Keurig, known for its single-serve coffee capsule technology, with soda manufacturer Dr Pepper in 2018, this business segment has struggled to overcome growth challenges due to intensified market competition. This cross-border acquisition may become a key strategic move for Keurig Dr Pepper to turn the situation around.

Strike enters fourth week, Boeing (BA.US) and the machinists' union plan to resume negotiations. Boeing and the machinists' union leaders are scheduled to resume contract negotiations on Monday. Defense workers assembling F-15 and F/A-18 in the St. Louis area and Illinois began their strike on August 4, 2025. Workers rejected Boeing's proposal for a 20% pay raise, a $5,000 signing bonus, more vacation and sick leave, and pathways to higher wages. Boeing defense spokesperson Didi VanNierop stated that so far, the company has managed to maintain production, flight testing, and other work using non-union workers "Bad Decision" with Almost No Winners! Think Tank Slams U.S. Government's Huge Investment in Intel (INTC.US). The U.S. government announced last Friday that it would invest up to $11.1 billion in the struggling American chipmaker Intel. The Cato Institute called this move a "bad decision that is detrimental to almost everyone." It is reported that Intel announced last Friday that it had reached an agreement with the U.S. government, which will invest $8.9 billion in Intel's common stock to acquire a 9.9% stake in the company. Upon successful completion of the transaction, the U.S. government will become a major shareholder of Intel. Intel stated that the U.S. government will purchase 433.3 million shares of Intel common stock at a price of $20.47 per share. Including the previously obtained $2.2 billion subsidy, the total investment by the U.S. government in Intel amounts to $11.1 billion.

Thoma Bravo Nears Acquisition of Call Center Software Maker Verint Systems (VRNT.US), Valued at Approximately $2 Billion. According to informed sources, private equity firm Thoma Bravo is close to finalizing a deal to acquire call center software maker Verint Systems, with the transaction valuing Verint at approximately $2 billion, including debt. Sources indicate that the agreement could be announced as early as Monday, but no final decision has been made by either party. Verint, headquartered in Melville, New York, claims on its website to be a leader in customer experience automation, serving approximately 10,000 customers in 175 countries worldwide. The company has been listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange since 2002. In February 2021, Verint completed the spin-off of Cognyte Software (CGNT.US), transforming it into an independent publicly traded company focused on investigative analytics software.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts

Beijing time 20:00: U.S. July Building Permits Month-on-Month Revision (%).

Beijing time 22:00: U.S. July Seasonally Adjusted New Home Sales Annual Total (10,000 Units).

Next day Beijing time 03:15: 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan speaks at the 100th anniversary conference of the Central Bank of Mexico and participates in a panel discussion.

Earnings Forecast

Tuesday Pre-Market: Beike (BEKE.US), Daqo New Energy (DQ.US), EHang Intelligent (EH.US), Gaotu (GOTU.US)