UBS has raised its S&P 500 year-end target to 6,600 points for the second time in two months, betting on profit resilience and interest rate cut expectations
UBS Global Wealth Management has again raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index to 6,600 points, primarily based on strong corporate earnings, easing trade tensions, and expectations of interest rate cuts. This adjustment implies a 3.6% upside from the latest closing price of 6,370.17 points. Despite the market's optimism, UBS maintains a "neutral" rating on the U.S. stock market, believing there is a lack of catalysts in the short term and that valuations are high. Investors are focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting for clues on the direction of interest rates
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, UBS Global Wealth Management has raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 index for the second time in two months, betting that strong corporate earnings, easing trade tensions, and expectations of interest rate cuts will drive the market upward. This time, UBS raised the target from 6,200 points to 6,600 points, implying a 3.6% upside from the index's latest closing price of 6,370.17 points. In late June of this year, UBS Wealth Management had already raised its target from 6,000 points to 6,200 points.
Earlier this month, major brokerages, including Citigroup and HSBC, also raised their targets for the index.
After hitting a low in April due to U.S. President Donald Trump's "liberation day" tariff policy, the U.S. stock market began a rebound, benefiting from the AI boom that has kept corporate earnings resilient.
According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), as of August 15, 459 companies in the S&P 500 index had reported quarterly earnings, with 80.2% of them exceeding analyst expectations.
UBS strategists stated in a report on August 21: "The bullish pattern remains unchanged, and the stock market may continue to rise over the next year." However, they still maintain a "neutral" rating on the U.S. stock market, citing that "the market may have fully digested optimistic expectations related to trade progress, lacks short-term catalysts, and valuations are at high levels."
UBS also raised its annual earnings per share (EPS) forecast for the S&P 500 index from $265 to $270, and increased the mid-2026 index target from 6,500 points to 6,600 points, with the EPS forecast for the same period raised from $285 to $290.
Investors will also be paying attention to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech later on Friday evening during the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, looking for clues regarding the interest rate path
