Amazon Is This Analyst's 'Best Idea' As E-Commerce Market Share Nears 50%

Benzinga
2025.08.21 16:13
portai
I'm PortAI, I can summarize articles.

JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth has named Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) his 'Best Idea' in the U.S. e-commerce sector, citing the company's accelerating sales growth and expanding Prime ecosystem. Amazon's U.S. e-commerce share rose to 46.8% in Q2, with projections for further growth to 47.4% in Q3 and 49.2% in Q4. Anmuth forecasts U.S. e-commerce growth of 4.6% in Q3 and 4.4% in Q4, with long-term penetration potentially exceeding 40%. Despite this positive outlook, Amazon's stock is currently down 1.02% at $221.56.

JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth reaffirmed Amazon.com AMZN as his “Best Idea” in the U.S. e-commerce sector.

Following an analysis of second-quarter Department of Commerce data, Anmuth highlighted the company’s significant market share gains and strong delivery execution.

Amazon’s accelerating sales growth and expanding Prime ecosystem continue to outpace the broader market, positioning the company for long-term dominance, he explained in a research note issued on Wednesday.

Also Read: Amazon’s AI-Powered Cost Cuts, Labor Gains And Record Prime Day Drive Analyst’s Bullish Outlook

Here are a few notes from his latest report:

  • U.S. e-commerce sales grew 5.3% year-over-year in second-quarter, compared to 5.6% in first-quarter
  • It was the 10th straight quarter of market share gains as penetration rose 17 basis points to 21.9% of adjusted retail sales.
  • Amazon outpaced the broader market, with global 1P sales accelerating to 10% foreign-exchange-neutral Y/Y from 6% in first-quarter
  • Global 3P sales spiked 10% foreign-exchange-neutral Y/Y from 7% in the first quarter.
  • Essentials made up about one-third of units sold
  • 30% year-over-year growth in U.S. same-day or one-day delivery units
  • Amazon’s U.S. e-commerce share jumped 202 basis points Y/Y to 46.8% in second-quarter
  • Projected share is expected to climb to 47.4% in third-quarter (+163bps Y/Y), 49.2% in fourth-quarter (+221bps Y/Y), and 48.2% in 2026 (+78bps Y/Y).

What’s Next: Anmuth forecast U.S. e-commerce growth of 4.6% Y/Y in third-quarter; 4.4% in fourth-quarter; and 6.4% in 2026.

Amazon’s U.S. GMV (ex-physical stores) is expected to grow 8% Y/Y in the third quarter; 9% in the fourth quarter; and 8% in 2026. Long-term, U.S. e-commerce penetration could rise from ~23% in 2024 to 40%+, he added.

Price Action: Amazon stock is down 1.02% at $221.56 at last check on Thursday.

  • Amazon’s Grocery Delivery Expansion Seen As Game-Changer In $90-Billion Online Market Opportunity

Image: Shutterstock

Source: Benzinga The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the stance of the platform. The content is intended for investment reference purposes only and shall not be considered as investment advice. Please contact us if you have any questions or suggestions regarding the content services provided by the platform.