The US Leading Economic Index Slightly Declines, Signs of Economic Growth Pressure Emerge

Zhitong
2025.08.21 15:34
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The Leading Economic Index (LEI) in the United States slightly fell by 0.1% in July 2025, indicating pressure on economic growth. Despite consumers' pessimism about business prospects, stock prices still provided support for the LEI. It is expected that the economy will slow down in the second half of 2025, with an annual real GDP growth rate of 1.6%. During the same period, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) in the United States rose by 0.2% in July, indicating improvements in indicators such as non-farm employment and personal income. The Conference Board does not expect the United States to enter a recession, but warns that signals of economic recession remain

According to Zhitong Finance, the latest economic data released by the Conference Board indicates that the U.S. economy will still face certain pressures in 2025. According to the report, the U.S. Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell slightly by 0.1% in July 2025, reporting at 98.7, after a decline of 0.3% in June. Over the six months from January to July this year, the LEI has cumulatively decreased by 2.7%, a decline significantly higher than the 1.0% drop from July last year to January this year.

Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager and Head of Business Cycle Indicators at the Conference Board, stated: "The U.S. Leading Economic Index saw only a slight decline in July. The pessimistic outlook of consumers regarding business prospects and weak new orders continue to weigh on the index. However, stock prices remain an important positive support for the LEI. Additionally, the significant drop in initial unemployment claims in early July provided the second-largest positive contribution to the index, whereas this indicator had a negative impact on the index in the previous three months."

She pointed out that although the six-month growth rate of the LEI remains negative, there was an improvement in July, but it is still insufficient to avoid signaling another economic recession. Overall, the Conference Board currently does not expect the U.S. to enter a recession, but anticipates that the economy will slow down in the second half of 2025, with the negative impacts of tariffs gradually becoming apparent. The annual real GDP growth rate is expected to be 1.6%, slowing further to 1.3% in 2026.

During the same period, the U.S. Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose by 0.2% in July, reporting at 114.9, unchanged from June (the previous initial value reported a 0.3% increase). From January to July, the CEI has cumulatively grown by 0.9%, higher than the 0.6% growth in the previous six months. The four components of the CEI—non-farm employment, personal income (excluding transfer payments), manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are important indicators for assessing the U.S. economic recession. Among these, three indicators, excluding industrial production, improved in July.

On the other hand, the U.S. Lagging Economic Index (LAG) remained unchanged in both June and July, reporting at 119.9. From January to July this year, this index has cumulatively grown by 0.9%, reversing the previous six-month decline of 0.1%

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