U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Decline, Walmart Drops After Earnings

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of August 21 (Thursday), U.S. stock index futures are all down before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are down 0.39%, S&P 500 futures are down 0.29%, and Nasdaq futures are down 0.23%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 0.36%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.25%, the French CAC 40 index is down 0.74%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.33%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 0.65%, priced at $63.12 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 0.55%, priced at $67.21 per barrel.

Market News

Oaktree Capital's Marks warns: U.S. stocks show early signs of a bubble, but the adjustment threshold has not yet been reached. The co-chairman of the distressed debt investment management firm stated, "I certainly am not sounding the alarm at this point. The key is that market valuations are already high." He added that it has been 16 years since investors last experienced a "serious market correction." Marks noted that the current period reminds him of the late 1990s when the market became euphoric about tech stocks, prompting former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan to issue a warning about "irrational exuberance." However, he also emphasized that the market continued to rise for several years before the tech bubble burst. "People have forgotten the lessons of market corrections," Marks said, pointing out that "mean reversion is very likely to occur." He believes that some tech stocks are "at quite high levels" relative to historical valuations.

Kansas City Fed President: Current moderately restrictive monetary policy is in an appropriate position. Kansas City Fed President Esther George stated that she believes inflation risks are slightly higher than labor market risks. Nevertheless, as policymakers consider whether to adjust interest rates next month, the overall monetary policy is in an appropriate position. George stated that the current debate around when to cut rates centers on whether individual policymakers believe the policy is too tight. She said, "I think they are moderately restrictive." "I believe we are on a good path."

After a sharp decline, the rebound probability is 80%! Goldman Sachs recommends buying U.S. stock momentum stocks on dips. Goldman Sachs' trading department stated that if history is any guide, the recent sharp decline in momentum stocks that have been performing strongly may provide a buying opportunity on dips. Traders noted that Goldman Sachs' High Beta basket of momentum stocks has previously rebounded after similar declines, and the current technical trends support their view They stated in a client report: "In the past, when a basket of long and short momentum stocks fell by 10% or more within five days, the probability of rising in the following week was 80%. The median return rate for the following week was 4.5%, and the median return rate for the following month exceeded 11%."

Bank of America: Powell's speech may become a short-term catalyst for U.S. small-cap stocks, while long-term recovery still relies on fundamentals. Bank of America stated that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech on Friday at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting could become the biggest catalyst (either positive or negative) for the Russell 2000 index, which is primarily composed of small-cap stocks. Powell's dovish remarks may stimulate a rebound in small-cap stocks, while more hawkish comments could bring short-term downside risks—especially since the market has currently priced in two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. However, Bank of America added that the sustained outperformance of small-cap stocks may still depend on factors outside the Federal Reserve, including fundamentals, tariffs (small-cap stocks are more vulnerable due to lower profit margins), and the macro environment (notably, the bank's U.S. cyclical indicators seem to be turning towards "recovery" again, but have been in a state of macro chaos for the past two years).

Federal Reserve Governor Cook refuses to resign amid political storm over mortgage fraud allegations. Federal Reserve Governor Cook issued a statement via email through a spokesperson, stating: "I have no intention of being forced to resign due to allegations on social media. As a member of the Federal Reserve, I take issues related to personal financial history seriously and am currently compiling accurate information to respond to reasonable inquiries." This statement directly addressed President Trump's call for his resignation. Previously, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte wrote to Attorney General Pam Bondi, accusing Cook of allegedly forging bank documents and property records in two mortgage loans to obtain favorable loan terms, which could constitute a criminal offense. Although the Department of Justice has not initiated an investigation or filed any charges, Trump still posted on social media on Wednesday demanding Cook's resignation.

Individual Stock News

Walmart (WMT.US) Q2 results mixed, raises full-year sales guidance. The financial report showed that Walmart's Q2 revenue grew by 4.8% year-on-year to $177.4 billion, better than the market expectation of $176.2 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $0.68, below the market expectation of $0.74. Walmart expects net sales to grow by 3.75% to 4.75% in 2025, up from a previous forecast of 3% to 4%. This sends an optimistic signal that despite rising inflation concerns and weakening economic data, consumer purchasing power still provides support. As of the time of publication, Walmart's stock fell nearly 3% in pre-market trading on Thursday.

Apple (AAPL.US) intensifies its layout in the Indian market, opening a new store in Bangalore next month. Apple will open a new store in Bangalore, a southern technology hub in India, early next month, further increasing its investment in this key growth market. Apple stated on Thursday that this store is located in the upscale "Phoenix Marketcity" shopping center in Bangalore and will officially open to customers on September 2. Apple currently operates two stores in India: one is a flagship store located in Mumbai, the financial center of India, and the other is in a mall in southern Delhi. Although the Indian market accounts for a much lower proportion of Apple's revenue compared to the U.S. and China, Cook has stated that this country, with the largest population in the world, holds significant growth potential Money-burning action comes to a pause! Meta (META.US) halts recruitment for AI talent. Meta confirmed on Thursday that it has paused hiring for its newly established artificial intelligence department, ending a high-priced talent acquisition spree in the field of AI researchers and engineers. The company stated that this pause is merely "basic organizational planning: establishing a solid structure for superintelligence projects after personnel are in place, while conducting annual budgeting and planning." Media reports indicate that this hiring freeze took effect last week, coinciding with Meta's comprehensive restructuring. According to insiders, Meta is reorganizing its AI business into four major teams: the "TBD Lab" (meaning "to be determined") focused on building machine superintelligence, the AI product department, the infrastructure department, and a department responsible for long-term project exploration.

Canadian potash giant Brazil Potash (GRO.US) signs a 10-year potash sales contract! Brazil Potash announced that it has reached a binding agreement with Keytrade Fertilizantes Brasil for a 10-year "take-or-pay" commitment, under which Keytrade will purchase up to approximately 900,000 tons of potash products annually, thereby finalizing a memorandum of understanding announced in January this year. Keytrade Fertilizantes Brasil is one of the world's leading fertilizer trading companies and will purchase approximately 30%-37% of Brazil Potash's annual potash production from the company's Autazes project under the "take-or-pay" agreement, with a cap of 900,000 tons per year. As of the time of writing, Brazil Potash's stock surged over 32% in pre-market trading on Thursday.

Bilibili (BILI.US) releases second-quarter results: net profit attributable to shareholders of 219 million yuan, turning losses into profits year-on-year. Bilibili released its unaudited financial results for the second quarter of 2025, achieving total net revenue of 7.338 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), an increase of 19.76% year-on-year; gross profit of 2.676 billion yuan, an increase of 45.97% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of 219 million yuan, compared to a net loss of 609 million yuan in the same period last year, turning losses into profits; basic net profit per share of 0.52 yuan.

Miniso (MNSO.US) Q2 revenue grows 23.1% year-on-year, TOP TOY revenue surges 87.0%, same-store sales turn positive. Miniso accelerated its growth in the second quarter, with revenue growth of 23.1% exceeding expectations, adjusted net profit increasing by 10.6% year-on-year, and same-store sales growth (SSSG) turning positive, ending the single-digit decline seen in the previous quarter. TOP TOY revenue surged 87.0%, setting a new record for the second quarter. As of the time of writing, Miniso's stock rose nearly 6% in pre-market trading on Thursday.

Canadian Solar (CSIQ.US) Q2 revenue falls short of market expectations, lowers full-year revenue guidance. The financial report shows that the company's Q2 revenue increased by 3.7% year-on-year to $1.7 billion, below the market expectation of $1.9 billion Non-GAAP loss per share was $0.53, worse than market expectations. The total shipment volume of confirmed revenue components for the second quarter was 7.9 GW, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14%. Looking ahead, in the third quarter of 2025, the company expects total revenue to be between $1.3 billion and $1.5 billion; the total shipment volume of confirmed revenue components is expected to be between 5.0 GW and 5.3 GW. The company has lowered its sales guidance for the fiscal year 2025 from $6.1 billion to $7.1 billion to $5.6 billion to $6.3 billion, below the expected $6.33 billion. As of the time of writing, Canadian Solar's stock fell over 8% in pre-market trading on Thursday.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts

Beijing time 20:30 Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending August 16

Beijing time 20:30 August Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the U.S.

Beijing time 21:45 August SPGI Manufacturing PMI preliminary value in the U.S.

Beijing time 22:00 U.S. July existing home sales annualized total

Earnings Forecast

Friday morning: Ross Stores (ROST.US)

Friday pre-market: Golden Fields (GFI.US), RLX Technology (RLX.US)