Elon Musk's Robotaxi Math 'Absurd,' Says Short Seller Jim Chanos, Doubting Tesla Can Hit Sub-20-Cent Cost-Per-Mile

Benzinga
2025.08.21 07:00
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Prominent short seller Jim Chanos criticized Tesla CEO Elon Musk's robotaxi cost projections, calling the sub-20-cent-per-mile assumption "absurd." Chanos's comments followed a bullish analysis from ARK Invest's Daniel Maguire, who believes Tesla can dominate the robotaxi market. The debate arises from Musk's October 2024 event where he predicted low operating costs and production starting in 2026. However, Musk has previously missed robotaxi timelines, and Tesla faces declining deliveries, with shares down 14.6% year-to-date.

Prominent short seller Jim Chanos challenged Tesla Inc. TSLA CEO Elon Musk’s ambitious robotaxi cost projections on Wednesday, calling the sub-20-cent-per-mile assumption “absurd.”

Chanos wrote on X, “This is the Big Robotaxi Assumption. Namely that at scale, cost per mile will be below 20 cents. This is absurd. $TSLA.”

ARK Analyst Defends Tesla’s Competitive Position

The criticism came in response to ARK Invest analyst Daniel Maguire‘s bullish robotaxi analysis. Maguire argued Tesla could meet Austin’s entire urban Vehicle Miles Traveled demand with only 200,000 vehicles, leveraging the company’s “data advantage, vertically integrated manufacturing, and cost-per-mile” advantages.

“Thanks to its data advantage, vertically integrated manufacturing, and cost-per-mile, we think Tesla can undercut Uber’s pricing umbrella and scale rapidly to dominate in the U.S.—and potentially globally,” Maguire wrote, projecting Tesla’s robotaxi business could represent 90% of enterprise value by 2029.

Musk’s October Promises Under Scrutiny

The dispute centers on projections from Tesla’s October 2024 “We, Robot” event, where Musk unveiled the Cybercab robotaxi. He predicted 20 cents per mile operating costs and production starting in 2026, Reuters reported, priced under $30,000.

However, Musk has missed previous robotaxi timelines. In 2019, he predicted “very confident” operational robotaxis by 2020. Tesla currently faces declining deliveries, with the second quarter of 2025 revenue dropping 12% to $22.5 billion amid weakening sales in the U.S. and Europe.

Market Reality vs. Projections

ARK’s analysis shows Tesla gathers 40x more daily autonomous driving data than Alphabet Inc.‘s GOOGL GOOG Waymo from Full Self-Driving vehicles, and 900x more from its global fleet. Waymo currently leads with 250,000 autonomous rides weekly across limited markets.

Despite Musk’s $20 trillion valuation claims requiring “extreme execution,” Tesla shares closed Wednesday at $323.90, down 14.6% year-to-date, with a market capitalization of $1.01 trillion.

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