U.S. pre-market Chinese concept stocks are mixed, European stocks opened higher, oil prices are under pressure, and the market is focused on Jackson Hole

After progress was made in the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations, investors quickly turned their attention to the upcoming Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting this week, seeking clear guidance on future interest rate paths, while global stock markets hovered near historical highs during this period.

On Wednesday, the 19th, U.S. stock futures saw Intel rise about 6%, Chinese concept stocks fluctuated, European stocks opened slightly higher, while expectations of a ceasefire potentially leading to increased crude oil supply put pressure on oil prices, causing them to decline. Asian stock markets showed lackluster performance. U.S. Treasury prices remained stable, and market volatility did not expand as expected, trading overall within a narrow range.

• In U.S. stock futures, Intel rose about 6%, and SoftBank Group signed a $2 billion investment agreement with Intel, purchasing Intel common stock at $23 per share. Chinese concept stocks fluctuated, with Nio up about 1% and XPeng down about 1%.
• The German DAX 30 index rose 0.24%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.07%, the French CAC 40 index rose 0.13%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 0.25%.
• The Nikkei 225 index closed down 0.4% at 43,546.29 points. The Tokyo Stock Exchange index fell 0.1%. The Seoul Composite Index in South Korea fell 0.8%.
• The U.S. dollar index maintained a decline of less than 0.2% for the day. According to media reports, the U.S. and its allies will immediately launch a security assurance plan for Ukraine.
• The euro remained virtually unchanged at $1.1657.
• The Japanese yen rose 0.2% against the U.S. dollar to 147.66.
• The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond changed little at 4.34%.
• The yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond rose 2.5 basis points to 1.590%.
• Spot gold rose 0.1% to $3,337.11 per ounce.
• West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 0.96% to $62.1 per barrel.
• Bitcoin fell 1.2% to $115,098.39.

Breakthrough in Ukraine Peace Negotiations: Trump Proposes Russia-Ukraine Summit

In U.S. stock futures, Intel rose about 6%, and SoftBank Group signed a $2 billion investment agreement with Intel, purchasing Intel common stock at $23 per share. Chinese concept stocks fluctuated, with Nio up about 1% and XPeng down about 1%.

According to CCTV News, on the afternoon of August 18, local time, Trump met with Zelensky at the White House and stated that if all goes well, they would hold a trilateral meeting involving the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine. He believes that Russian President Putin wants this war to end, and the U.S. will work with Ukraine and other parties to ensure lasting peace. Trump mentioned that the Russia-Ukraine war will end, but he could not specify when. The U.S. will cooperate with Russia and Ukraine to provide substantial assistance in the security field According to media reports citing informed sources, the proposal suggested by Trump includes a one-on-one meeting between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine, followed by a trilateral meeting that includes the U.S. This move is Trump's latest effort to quickly mediate an end to the conflict that has lasted for over three years.

Major European stock indices opened higher, with the German DAX 30 index rising by 0.24%, the UK FTSE 100 index up by 0.07%, the French CAC 40 index increasing by 0.13%, and the European Stoxx 50 index gaining 0.25%.

Ruchir Sharma, founder of Breakout Capital Partners LP, stated:

"The people of Ukraine and Russia are growing weary of the war, which is often a good precondition for ending it. There is potential for upside in the coming months, and Europe will be the biggest beneficiary of the end of the Ukraine war."

The U.S. dollar index maintained a decline of less than 0.2% for the day. According to media reports, the U.S. and its allies will immediately launch a security assurance plan for Ukraine.

Texas Intermediate crude oil fell by 0.96% to $62.1 per barrel.

Market Focus Shifts to Jackson Hole, Fed's Moves Become Key

Despite progress in geopolitics, investors' attention has quickly shifted. The market widely expects Powell to announce a new policy framework for the Federal Reserve at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, which outlines its strategy for achieving inflation and employment targets. Additionally, he may provide some hints about the Fed's latest thinking ahead of the September policy meeting. Nick Twidale, chief analyst at ATFX Global Markets in Sydney, stated:

"Funds are currently just sitting on the sidelines, waiting for a new signal to push the market to new highs. Investors were prepared for volatility after the talks, but that did not happen, so they will now focus on central bank dynamics later this week, especially the Fed."

Data from the interest rate swap market shows that traders expect an approximately 80% chance of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points next month and have fully priced in expectations for two rate cuts by the end of the year. Chris Larkin from Morgan Stanley's E*Trade stated:

"Currently, the market seems to be betting that signs of weakness in the labor market will outweigh inflation risks in the Fed's rate cut debate."

Additionally, according to media reports, Nvidia is preparing to launch a more powerful new chip for the Chinese market. Nvidia's stock price showed little change in pre-market trading.

The rating agency S&P Global Ratings confirmed the long-term credit rating of AA+ and the short-term credit rating of A-1+ for the United States. S&P noted in a report that although a recent spending bill poses a fiscal challenge, tariff revenues will largely offset its negative impact, allowing the U.S. to maintain its credit strength.

Analysts, including Lisa Schineller, wrote in the report:

"With the effective tariff rate rising, we expect substantial tariff revenues to roughly offset the weaker fiscal outcomes that may arise from recent fiscal legislation."