Zhitong Decision Reference | The probability of the Hang Seng Index trending upwards is relatively high

[Editor’s Market View]

The market has already begun to speculate on interest rate cuts, and domestic personal loan interest subsidy policies are also promoting active capital entry into the market. Qishou Securities has made efforts, and last week, Hong Kong stocks continued to expand upward.

The summit between the Russian and American leaders has concluded, with Trump not achieving any substantial results. There is no ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, nor has any agreement been signed with Putin. There are also no plans to impose tariffs on China's purchase of Russian oil.

On the 16th, Trump stated that he would meet with Zelensky in the Oval Office on the afternoon of the 18th, Eastern Time. If all goes well, arrangements will be made for a meeting between the leaders of the United States, Russia, and Ukraine.

Overall, the U.S. mediation regarding Russia and Ukraine is merely superficial; the main goal is to improve various relations with Russia. The only loser is Europe. On August 21, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from the July monetary policy meeting. From August 21 to August 23, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held, where Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak on August 22. It is expected to lean towards a dovish stance. Central Bank: Implement and detail a moderately loose monetary policy. Overall, the probability of the Hang Seng Index moving upward is relatively high.

Multiple photovoltaic companies have received notifications to participate in a symposium organized by relevant departments on Tuesday (August 19). The new photovoltaic symposium is expected to further discuss issues related to anti-involution and capacity reduction, and even the possibility of a storage plan being implemented cannot be ruled out. Photovoltaics are expected to undergo a value reassessment.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated that he hopes to invest trillions of dollars in the future for the infrastructure needed to develop and operate artificial intelligence services. In the second half of 2025, Ascend will implement a strategy for comprehensive coverage of edge scenarios from low computing power to high computing power. The chip computing power sector is expected to remain active.

[This Week's Golden Stock]

AB&B BIO-TECH-B (02627)

AB&B BIO-TECH-B (02627) announced that the clinical trial (IND) application for its self-developed recombinant respiratory syncytial virus vaccine (CHO cells) (adjuvant) has been approved by the Center for Drug Evaluation (CDE) of the National Medical Products Administration. In addition, the IND application for this vaccine in the United States has also been approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

The recombinant respiratory syncytial virus vaccine (CHO cells) (adjuvant) approved for the subsidiary of AB&B BIO-TECH innovatively applies big data analysis to empower drugability research, using innovative technology with completely independent intellectual property rights, and adopts a pre-F antigen sequence with highly stable characteristics. In preclinical studies, this vaccine has shown positive performance across various indicators, not only stimulating the body to produce high-titer neutralizing antibodies against RSV A2 and B types but also simultaneously activating a high level of cellular immune response. In cotton rat challenge protection studies, it has demonstrated excellent protective efficacy, reducing the viral load in the lungs to below the detection limit, with no vaccine-enhanced disease (VED) phenomenon observed, showing outstanding safety.

Public information shows that currently, there are three RSV vaccines approved by the FDA globally, while there are no RSV vaccines approved for marketing in China. According to ZhiShi Consulting research data, the global RSV drug market (including therapeutic drugs, preventive drugs, and vaccines) is expected to grow from USD 1.8 billion in 2020 to USD 12.8 billion in 2030, with an average annual compound growth rate of 21.4% Zhonghui Biotechnology has established a complete commercialization product and R&D pipeline layout. Its core product, HuiErKangXin®, is the first and currently the only approved quadrivalent influenza virus subunit vaccine in China, which has completed access in 30 provinces nationwide and has been selected by over 1,100 district and county-level disease control centers. In addition to the already listed products, the company's pipeline also includes 11 other vaccines under research, covering multiple fields such as influenza, pneumonia, and recombinant shingles. As of now, multiple clinical approval documents for new drugs have been obtained, and clinical trials and NDA submissions are being carried out in an orderly manner.

【Industry Observation】

On July 31, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a symposium on the operation of the photovoltaic glass industry. According to industry insiders, at this meeting, the new single price for photovoltaic glass in August was raised to 11 yuan/m2. Companies that had previously accepted orders below this price will withdraw their orders and re-quote. Additionally, the trend of continued production cuts is being maintained.

Recently, the price of photovoltaic glass has been raised, and under the "anti-involution" trend, prices have rebounded from the bottom. According to SMM, on August 4, the price of 2.0mm single-layer coated photovoltaic glass was quoted at 10.5-11.0 yuan/m2, a slight increase compared to last week's quotes. Leading companies consistently quoted prices above 11 yuan/m2, with some glass companies that had good orders previously even raising their quotes to 11.5 yuan/m2. According to some glass companies, the current order volume will only be delivered by mid-September.

Recently, the photovoltaic "anti-involution" has been elevated to the level of national strategic action, with the core focus on addressing the chaos of homogeneous expansion and disorderly low-price competition among enterprises. In July, the cumulative cold repair capacity of domestic photovoltaic glass reached 7,750 tons per day, and effective capacity has fallen below 90,000 tons per day. Considering that the industry is expected to continue promoting cold repair plans, inventory levels are likely to decline after capacity clearance, and the industry expects photovoltaic glass prices to rebound from the bottom.

Key stocks to watch in Hong Kong include Fuyao Glass (06865), Xinyi Solar (00968), GCL-Poly Energy (03800), and Xinte Energy (01799).

【Data Monitoring】

According to data released by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the total number of open contracts for the Hang Seng Index futures (August) is 129,395, with a net open interest of 54,163 contracts. The settlement date for the Hang Seng Index futures is August 28, 2024.

The Hang Seng Index is at 25,270 points, with the bull-bear certificate concentration area deviating from the central axis, and the index currently appears hesitant. The market believes that Powell is bound to restart the interest rate cut program in September. Data suggests that the Hang Seng Index will adjust this week.

【Editor's Remarks】

This weekend, an institution released key points from grassroots research conducted by its brokerage department, indicating that the enthusiasm of retail investors in mainland China to enter the market is generally average, with the amount of funds entering the market being within 5%, significantly weaker than in September-October 2024; in comparison, the enthusiasm is slightly higher than in June 2020 but significantly weaker than in July 2020. The margin trading situation has seen an increase of about 5% since August, with almost no off-market leverage; last year, some clients entered the market through off-market individual stock options in the Hong Kong stock market, but due to the inability to redeem last year, there has been a significant decrease in clients entering the market through this model this year Mainland retail investors still primarily allocate to small and mid-cap stocks, paying little attention to valuations. Overall, retail investors remain generally conservative in entering the market, and market sentiment is not in an overheated state, indicating that the index still has upward potential