Financial report "sounds the alarm"! JP Morgan: JD.com may exit the price war in the third quarter, Alibaba may continue, and Meituan faces severe challenges

JP Morgan's latest warning: The competition in China's food delivery market is more intense than expected, and the three giants face divergent fates!

On August 18th, according to the news from Chasing Wind Trading Platform, JP Morgan stated in its latest research report that JD.com's food delivery investment losses in the second quarter reached 13 billion yuan, exceeding JP Morgan's expected 10 billion yuan. Based on this data, JP Morgan significantly raised Alibaba's third-quarter food delivery loss expectation to over 30 billion yuan, far exceeding the previous forecast of 17 billion yuan.

JP Morgan's report reminded that the market should closely monitor the upcoming financial reports of Alibaba and Meituan for the second and third quarters of 2025, paying special attention to the downside risks of their profitability.

The report pointed out that JD.com may be the first to exit the price war in the third quarter due to financial pressure, while Alibaba may continue to invest in the food delivery business based on strategic considerations, and Meituan, as the industry leader, will face the most severe long-term challenges.

JD.com's financial report reveals industry competition exceeds expectations

According to previous articles from Jianwen, JD.com's new business segment revenue soared 198.8% year-on-year in the second quarter, mainly driven by JD's food delivery. However, the operating loss of this segment sharply expanded from 700 million yuan in the same period last year to 14.8 billion yuan.

JP Morgan stated that it is clear from JD.com's second-quarter report for 2025 that the competition and investment intensity in China's food delivery market far exceed JP Morgan's initial expectations.

Data shows that JP Morgan previously predicted JD.com's food delivery investment loss for the second quarter of 2025 to be 10 billion yuan, but the actual financial report showed a loss of 13 billion yuan for the quarter, exceeding expectations by 30%.

JP Morgan analysts believe that JD.com's second-quarter report can serve as an important reference indicator for Alibaba and Meituan. According to JP Morgan's calculations:

JD.com's loss per order in the second quarter of 2025 is approximately 10 yuan. Even if Alibaba's loss per order is only half of JD's, assuming a daily order volume of 70 million orders (70% of the weekend order peak), Alibaba's loss from food delivery in the third quarter of 2025 could also exceed 30 billion yuan, far higher than JP Morgan's previous forecast of 17 billion yuan.

According to JP Morgan's forecast, the financial impact of food delivery flash purchase investments from the second to the fourth quarter of 2025 is:

• JD.com: 13.5 billion yuan, 14.4 billion yuan, 9.45 billion yuan
• Alibaba: 5.6 billion yuan, 16.9 billion yuan, 16.1 billion yuan
• Meituan: 2.7 billion yuan, 5.7 billion yuan, 3.7 billion yuan

JP Morgan stated that the corresponding loss per order is expected to be 8 yuan for JD.com and 1.87 yuan for Alibaba. Investors should closely monitor the upcoming financial reports of Alibaba and Meituan for the second and third quarters of 2025, paying special attention to the downside risks of their profitability

JD.com may be the first to "raise the white flag," Alibaba prepares for a "protracted battle," and Meituan faces challenges

In the face of huge losses brought about by intense competition, JP Morgan believes JD.com may be the first to withdraw. Channel research shows that after recently announcing a shift to rational competition, Alibaba and Meituan's price subsidies have only slightly decreased, rather than significantly reduced.

Considering competitors' more aggressive price subsidy strategies and greater financial flexibility, JP Morgan expects JD.com may be the first to eliminate price subsidies in the third quarter of 2025.

Currently, JP Morgan's forecast for JD.com's adjusted earnings per share in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 122% higher than the market consensus, with the possibility of further upward adjustments.

JP Morgan states that, in stark contrast to JD.com, Alibaba is clearly prepared for a protracted battle. According to media reports, since increasing investments in food delivery flash sales, Taobao's daily active users, user engagement, and offline transaction volume of Taobao merchants have all shown growth or improvement.

JP Morgan believes that Alibaba may continue to invest in the food delivery business and explore opportunities in flash sales in the coming years. This means that the market share structure in the food delivery sector is unlikely to return to the state of 2024, and the competitive landscape of the industry will undergo fundamental changes.

As the traditional leader in the food delivery market, Meituan faces the most severe challenges. JP Morgan points out that changes in market share structure pose significant challenges for Meituan, as it previously captured the vast majority, if not 100%, of industry profits.

Even more concerning is that long-term investments in the industry may alter consumer behavior and reduce the average order value and GMV, which would be detrimental to the profit pool of the entire industry. JP Morgan warns that if both the industry's profit pool and Meituan's market share decline, Meituan's stock price will face sustained pressure