A decade-long moat is in jeopardy! Under the aggressive attack of Samsung's foldable screens, Apple's market share in the U.S. has been lost

According to Zhitong Finance APP, in 2014, Apple (AAPL.US) and Samsung (SSNLF.US) engaged in a peak showdown in the U.S. smartphone market. At that time, Samsung captured market share with its large-screen phones, prompting strong demands from Apple fans for a response. After a long wait, Apple finally broke tradition and launched its first large-screen phone, the iPhone 6. This move allowed Apple to successfully dominate the market. However, more than a decade later, the latest sales data indicates that this century-old battle is heating up again—still focusing on innovations in screen form.

Market research firm Canalys reports that in the second quarter of this year, Samsung's shipment volume in the U.S. market surged, with its market share climbing from 23% to 31%. During the same period, Apple's market share fell from 56% to 49%.

Although Apple still leads the U.S. market with a 49% market share, this marks the first significant shake-up of its dominance in over a decade. This also explains why Apple's stock price has fallen by 7.5% this year, performing only better than Tesla (TSLA.US) among tech giants. In contrast, Samsung's stock price has risen by about 35% by 2025.

In July, Samsung launched two revolutionary foldable phones: the Z Fold 7, which can transform into a tablet, and the Z Flip, which combines a retro flip design with smart features. These products, along with the ultra-thin Galaxy S25 Edge phone released in spring, form Samsung's flagship lineup.

These devices have sparked heated discussions on social media, especially regarding their durability testing videos. One user live-streamed bending the Z Fold 7 over 200,000 times, with related clips on YouTube garnering over 15 million views. Social media analytics firm Sprout Social reports that in the past month, Samsung's high-end models have received over 50,000 discussions, with 83% being positive or neutral reviews.

The shift in market dynamics is not only due to user preferences. Analysts point out that the fluctuations in shipment volume in the second quarter were partly influenced by tariff policies, prompting smartphone manufacturers to adjust their strategies to meet challenges. However, Samsung's advantage lies in its comprehensive product matrix—from low-end models (which largely drove Samsung's growth in the U.S. market in the second quarter) to top-tier flagships priced above the iPhone.

Canalys analyst Runar Bjorhodde stated, "Samsung's Galaxy and Z series phones range in price from $650 to $2,400, covering a very wide price range. Their philosophy is to target consumers across all price segments and meet their needs."

In contrast, since 2017, the appearance of the iPhone has seen little change—consisting of a rectangular glass front with a touchscreen and several cameras on the back. Currently, Apple has launched four models, priced between $829 and $1,599. Meanwhile, manufacturers like Samsung have begun to break away from the so-called slab design, experimenting with new design forms.

It is rumored that Apple is about to make a change: a super-thin iPhone may be launched next month to compete with the Galaxy Edge. Loop Capital Managing Director John Donovan stated in May, "Apple is clearly betting that the 5.5mm Air model will turn the tide, and tests show strong market demand for the new form." JP Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee stated in a report last month that Apple may also launch a foldable phone next year to compete with Samsung's Z Fold.

Chatterjee wrote, "Investor attention has shifted to the fall 2026 launch event, where Apple is expected to introduce the foldable iPhone for the first time in the iPhone 18 series, set to launch in September 2026."

Bjorhovde believes that trying new design forms gives Apple the opportunity to sell devices at higher prices.

Apple's most expensive phone currently is the iPhone 16 Pro Max, with a starting price of $1,199 for the 256GB storage version, and up to $1,599 for the 1TB storage version. The Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 7, released last week, has a starting price of $1,999 for the 256GB version, with the 1TB version reaching up to $2,419.

Chatterjee indicated that he believes the starting price for Apple's foldable phone could be $1,999.

Foldable Screen Technology Matures

Although Samsung's first foldable phone in 2019 faced setbacks (the initial product was delayed due to screen crease issues), the situation is now completely different. Drew Blackard, Vice President of Mobile Product Management at Samsung Electronics America, stated, "Foldable screen devices have completely alleviated user concerns."

Blackard noted that the pre-sale volume of the latest Z Fold 7 has increased by 25% compared to the previous generation, with sales growth nearing 50%. Bjorhovde commented, "Samsung has achieved an innovative breakthrough with foldable screens, and this first-mover advantage brings significant brand halo effects."

According to Counterpoint Research, benefiting from the demand for high-end models (including the ultra-thin S25 Edge), Samsung's actual sales grew by 16% in the second quarter.

The wave of artificial intelligence (AI) is also giving rise to new forms of devices that could potentially replace the iPhone. OpenAI acquired Apple's former design chief Jony Ive's startup for $6.5 billion, which plans to develop next-generation hardware. Currently, several AI companies have launched voice-controlled smart badges, glasses, and other devices. Android manufacturers like Samsung have taken the lead in integrating Google's (GOOGL.US) Gemini AI system, which surpasses many of Apple's Siri features.

Blackard pointed out that the large display area of foldable screens is particularly suitable for AI applications, such as Google's "Select to Search" feature, which can achieve more efficient multitasking on foldable devices.

Although the market is concerned that Apple's slow progress in AI (with the next generation of Siri delayed until next year) may affect sales, most analysts believe that with brand loyalty and ecological barriers, Apple still has several years of buffer time.

Chatterjee stated that Apple's strategy regarding devices is to adopt a technology only when it is ready for the mainstream market. The analyst said, "Apple never chases first launches; instead, it waits for technology to mature and clear obstacles before striking precisely." For foldable screen devices, that moment may have already arrived