The impact of tariffs on inflation is gradually becoming apparent? U.S. import prices hit the largest increase in a year
The White House insists that tariffs have not driven up inflation, but the latest economic data may challenge this view. Import prices rose by 0.4% month-on-month in July, marking the largest increase in a year, indicating that the impact of tariffs on prices is gradually becoming apparent. Although Federal Reserve Board nominee Stephen Miran stated that there is no evidence of tariffs causing inflation, the rise in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Confidence Index has raised concerns about inflation. Analysts suggest paying attention to automobile sales and dining consumption to assess whether consumer momentum is slowing
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, the White House insists that tariffs have not driven up inflation in the United States, but a series of economic data released this week may challenge this assertion.
Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday showed that import prices rose 0.4% month-on-month in July, the largest increase in over a year, primarily driven by rising commodity costs. Although this indicator does not include the costs added by tariffs after imports, the data suggests that exporters have not actively lowered prices to offset the tariff burden on U.S. importers.
Earlier this week, Stephen Miran, a candidate for the Federal Reserve Board nominated by President Trump, stated in an interview that he "sees absolutely no evidence that tariffs are causing inflation." This statement aligns with Trump's own view that tariffs have not caused inflation or other problems in the U.S., but rather have brought in significant revenue for the Treasury.
However, recent data has gradually revealed the impact of tariffs on prices. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, released on Thursday, showed a significant increase in the factory costs of goods and services, raising inflation concerns and weakening the strong summer rally of the S&P 500 index. Meanwhile, data from the U.S. Department of Commerce indicated that retail and food service sales rose 0.5% to $726.3 billion in July, but this data did not account for inflation, meaning the increase included both a rise in consumption and prices.
From the classified data, clothing sales, which are highly correlated with Asian supply chains and sensitive to tariffs, surged 7.4% year-on-year, while dining expenditures fell 0.4%, reflecting consumers' caution regarding certain discretionary spending. Jeffery Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, pointed out that investors should pay attention to auto sales and discretionary spending on dining to assess whether consumer momentum is slowing.
The University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index for August fell to a three-month low, with both one-year and five-year inflation expectations significantly rising. Paul Ashworth, chief North American economist at Capital Economics, stated that this indicates American households remain highly vigilant about rising inflation, especially following the latest round of tariff countermeasures from the Trump administration.
Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, warned that although retail sales data remains robust, a weak job market combined with rising commodity prices driven by tariffs means that real income for American households may be stagnating.
According to estimates from the Leuthold Group, the tariff plan announced by Trump earlier this month has raised the effective tariff rate in the U.S. to between 18% and 19%, compared to about 3% in August of last year. The August CPI data, to be released by the BLS on September 11, is expected to reflect some of the tariff effects. Chun Wang, a senior researcher at the Leuthold Group, noted, "Overseas sellers have not significantly lowered prices to absorb the tariff shock, which is not a good sign for the U.S. CPI outlook."
