Nomura invests heavily in Q2 betting on the rise of AI applications, using various options strategies to gamble on Tesla's volatility

According to the disclosure by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Japan-based financial giant Nomura (NOMURA HOLDINGS INC) submitted its second-quarter holdings report (13F) for the period ending June 30, 2025.

The latest statistics show that Nomura's total market value of U.S. stock holdings in the second quarter was approximately $60.5 billion, compared to about $53.6 billion in the previous quarter, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 13%. In the second quarter, Nomura added 509 new stocks to its U.S. equity portfolio, increased holdings in 507 stocks, reduced holdings in 573 stocks, and completely exited 447 stocks. The top ten holdings accounted for 32.05% of Nomura's total market value, highlighting the concentration of its stock holdings in the top ten stocks.

Among Nomura's top ten holdings for Q2 2025, the call options for Meta (META.US, CALL), the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, ranked as the top holding, indicating a significant bet on the upward trajectory of this tech giant. Nomura held approximately 5.77 million shares of this position, with the market value of these call options around $4.3 billion, accounting for as much as 7.04% of the portfolio, an increase of 10.98% compared to the previous quarter. With a global user base of 3 billion and strong revenue growth driven by "AI + digital advertising," Meta is undoubtedly a leader in the global AI application field, with its stock price repeatedly hitting historical highs this year, up 35% year-to-date. Additionally, Meta raised its lower limit for full-year capital expenditures in 2025 from $64 billion to $66 billion, further highlighting the strong growth of its advertising business based on the "AI + digital advertising" model, which supports its aggressive investments in AI infrastructure.

Tesla (TSLA.US, PUT) put options ranked as Nomura's second-largest holding, with approximately 10.68 million shares held, valued at around $3.4 billion, accounting for 5.61% of the portfolio, a significant increase of 158.39% compared to the previous quarter.

The Nasdaq 100 index put options (QQQ.US, PUT) ranked as Nomura's third-largest holding, with approximately 4.8 million shares held, valued at around $2.6 billion, accounting for 4.38% of the portfolio, a substantial increase of 68.06% compared to the previous quarter.

Tesla (TSLA.US) common stock ranked as Nomura's fourth-largest holding, with approximately 6.27 million shares held, valued at around $2 billion, accounting for 3.29% of the portfolio, an increase of 44.64% compared to the previous quarter.

Russell 2000 index put options (IWM.US, PUT) ranked as Nomura's fifth-largest holding, with approximately 8.16 million shares held, valued at around $1.8 billion, accounting for 2.91% of the portfolio, a decrease of 31.32% compared to the previous quarter

Nomura's sixth to tenth largest positions in the second quarter were: Tesla call options (TSLA.US, CALL), Nvidia (NVDA.US, CALL) call options, Avis Budget Group Inc (CAR.US), Equinix Inc (EQIX.US), and Nvidia put options (NVDA.US, PUT). Notably, Nomura significantly reduced its holdings in both Nvidia call and put options in the second quarter, while increasing its positions in other stocks.

It is worth noting that among the top ten holdings mentioned above, Nomura also significantly increased its positions in TSLA put options (Put), call options (Call), and Tesla's underlying stock in the second quarter. The underlying logic may be a "long volatility + dynamic hedging" event-driven trading strategy; Nomura used both ends of the options to bet on significant volatility in the second quarter (deliveries/earnings reports/narrative conflicts), managing Delta/Gamma with the underlying stock. In the case of Tesla, where the upward narrative still holds potential and the downward fundamentals remain under pressure, this combination of "retaining convexity while ensuring defense" is a standard institutional strategy used to bet on significant price fluctuations of a particular stock.

What is "long volatility + dynamic hedging" event-driven trading? When institutions find it difficult to determine the direction but expect volatility to rise significantly (such as early month deliveries, end-of-month earnings reports/guidance, and uncertainties in policies and management), they may adopt a long straddle/strangle structure by buying calls + buying puts to bet on significant unilateral or bilateral swings. This aligns closely with the "high uncertainty, strong controversy" narrative that Tesla faced in the second quarter; at the same time, the options position requires "Delta hedging with the underlying stock" to facilitate Gamma Scalping (long Gamma, profiting from volatility, offsetting time decay), which necessitates dynamically buying and selling the underlying stock to neutralize directional exposure. Therefore, institutions often hold a portion of the underlying stock simultaneously, which is Tesla's underlying stock.

Since the beginning of this year, Tesla's stock price has experienced significant volatility due to multiple headwinds, including concerns among global investors stemming from Musk's political involvement, the breakdown of relations between Musk and U.S. President Trump, a sharp decline in Tesla's sales in various regions worldwide, and the slower-than-expected progress in promoting the Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscription and Robotaxi autonomous taxi services. Tesla's stock price has fallen over 17% this year, ranking last among the "seven major tech giants" in the U.S. stock market. However, during the significant rebound from April to May, the stock surged by as much as 50%, before entering a downward trajectory with a decline of 20% in June and July.

From the changes in holding proportions, Nomura's top five purchases in the second quarter were: Tesla (TSLA.US, PUT) put options, Nasdaq 100 index put options (QQQ.US, PUT), Tesla call options (TSLA.US, CALL), Meta (META.US, CALL) call options, and Avis Budget Group Inc (CAR.US) Nomura's top five sell targets in the second quarter were: COINBASE GLOBAL INC NOTE 0.500% 6/0 (DEBT-COIN), S&P 500 Index ETF put options (SPY.US, PUT), Russell 2000 Index put options (IWM.US, PUT), NVIDIA (NVDA.US, CALL) call options, and S&P 500 Index ETF call options (SPY.US, CALL).

In addition, Nomura significantly increased its position in Microsoft call options (MSFT.US, CALL) in the second quarter, making the call options of this established tech giant the thirteenth largest holding, with an increase of up to 110%. This highlights Nomura's extreme optimism about the AI application wave sweeping the globe in the second quarter, betting heavily on the two global leaders in the AI application field—Microsoft and the aforementioned top holding, Facebook's parent company Meta, to continue their bullish trajectory. According to the latest 13F holdings, the institution is very optimistic about Meta, riding the unprecedented AI wave alongside Microsoft, which is both a leader in AI applications and cloud computing, to achieve sustained stock price increases. Microsoft has seen its performance exceed expectations in recent years, with its stock price rising over 25% this year, and currently, the market capitalization exceeds $4 trillion, ranking second only to "AI chip giant" NVIDIA.