AI capital expenditures contribute 0.5% to U.S. GDP growth Pantheon Macroeconomics: Technology equipment and software investment will become a new engine for the economy
Pantheon Macroeconomics pointed out that artificial intelligence (AI) plays an important role in U.S. economic growth, and it is expected that by the first half of 2025, AI-related investments will contribute approximately 0.5 percentage points to U.S. GDP growth. This growth mainly comes from investments in the computer, communication equipment, and software industries, particularly upgrades to data centers and power infrastructure. Despite the increase in data center spending, it still accounts for only 0.1% of GDP. The continued growth of software and technology equipment is the main factor driving the acceleration of the economy
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Pantheon Macroeconomics believes that artificial intelligence (AI) is playing an increasingly important role in the expansion of the U.S. economy. Recent data shows that related capital expenditures have had a measurable impact on economic growth. The research firm estimates that in the first half of 2025, AI-driven investments will contribute approximately 0.5 percentage points to the growth of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and this growth momentum is expected to continue in the coming quarters.
In a recent investor report, the company stated: "We estimate that AI-related investments will drive GDP growth by about 0.5 percentage points in the first half of 2025."
Analysis indicates that the most significant impacts are seen in industries related to computer and communication equipment, software, certain non-residential construction projects (especially data centers), and upgrades to power and communication infrastructure to meet the high energy demands of large-scale AI models.
Despite a significant increase in spending on data centers in recent months, their scale remains relatively small, accounting for only 0.1 percentage points of GDP. Spending on power and communication infrastructure has remained stable but has not been sufficient to significantly alter the economic growth trend. In contrast, the acceleration in growth is primarily due to the continued increase in spending on software and technology equipment.
Notably, the substantial growth in technology equipment investment in the first quarter (initially thought to be driven by stockpiling ahead of tariff implementation) continued into the second quarter, even as imports of other goods slowed.
AI-themed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) include the AI & Technology ETF - Global X (AIQ.US), Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF - GlobalX (BOTZ.US), and First Trust Nasdaq Artificial Intelligence & Robotics ETF (ROBT.US), among others
