The number of initial jobless claims in the United States slightly decreased to 224,000, while the number of continuing claims remains high at 1.95 million, revealing hidden concerns about employment
The unemployment claims data in the United States last week presented a complex signal, with the number of initial jobless claims decreasing by 3,000 to 224,000, lower than market expectations. Although the number of continuing claims fell to 1.95 million, it remains at a high level, suggesting that some unemployed individuals are facing a longer job search period. Economists predict that the unemployment rate may rise to 4.3% in August. Recent data has triggered policy changes, with the Trump administration firing the director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and investors expect the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate cut cycle at the September meeting
According to the Zhitong Finance APP, last week's unemployment claims data in the United States presented a complex signal, reflecting the ongoing adjustment of the labor market under policy pressure. For the week ending August 9, the number of initial unemployment claims decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, lower than the market expectation of 228,000, continuing the recent trend of low volatility.
Although the economic uncertainty brought about by the Trump administration's tariff policy has led to a cooling of corporate hiring intentions—with an average of only 35,000 new jobs added per month over the past three months—the initial claims data still indicates that employers have not yet initiated large-scale layoffs.
The number of continuing unemployment claims fell by 15,000 to 1.95 million for the week ending August 2, but this indicator remains near the high levels seen since 2021, suggesting that some unemployed individuals are facing longer job search cycles. Economists point out that this trend aligns with the forecast that the unemployment rate may rise from 4.2% to 4.3% in August, reflecting a moderate cooling in the job market.
It is noteworthy that recent data has triggered changes at the policy level. After the employment data for May and June was significantly revised downward, the Trump administration announced the dismissal of the director of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and nominated the controversial EJ Anthony to take over the position. Although his appointment still requires Senate confirmation, economists from both parties have expressed concerns about the new appointee's professional background.
In the financial markets, investors generally expect the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate-cutting cycle at the September meeting. Although rising service sector inflation and potential risks from tariffs pushing up prices may affect the pace of policy changes, the signs of a gradual slowdown in the labor market still reinforce expectations for easing.
Data shows that the four-week moving average of initial claims, which measures volatility, remains stable at 221,800, while the actual unadjusted claims have rebounded in regions such as Massachusetts, indicating a divergence in regional labor markets
