U.S. stocks rise again unafraid of risks, with AI and fiscal stimulus as the engines of growth

According to Zhitong Finance APP, on Wednesday, the U.S. stock market continued its strong upward momentum, with investors seemingly choosing to "look the other way" regarding a series of risk factors that could disrupt the market, maintaining a high risk appetite.

Recently, U.S. stocks not only ignored President Trump's increasingly complex and volatile tariff strategy but also overlooked macro concerns such as rising inflation pressures and slowing consumer spending, continuing to rise even against a backdrop of high valuations. According to Bank of America's August Global Fund Manager Survey, the current market is widely viewed as "severely overvalued," yet the S&P 500 index has risen nearly 10% year-to-date, rebounding nearly 30% from the low on April 8, the "liberation day" when tariffs were implemented.

Trump has pushed to adjust the Federal Reserve to align more closely with government economic goals, dismissed the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and nominated a partisan candidate who had suggested eliminating the monthly employment data release to take over, while directly demanding the replacement of Intel (INTC.US) CEO and Goldman Sachs' chief economist. These actions have hardly stirred the capital markets.

On the economic front, concerns about stagflation have arisen due to slowing economic growth, weakening consumption, and rising inflation. The Republican-led "Big and Beautiful" bill, which includes high spending and tax cuts, is expected to push U.S. debt to $40 trillion by the end of this decade. However, Treasury yields have not significantly risen due to the expanding fiscal deficit.

The Cboe VIX volatility index has fallen to a low of 14.46 since December last year, implying a daily fluctuation of only 57 points for the S&P 500, far below the 160 points in April. Chris Zaccarelli, CIO of Northlight Capital Management, believes that as long as the unemployment rate remains low and inflation is not sufficient to force the Federal Reserve to tighten policy, the bull market will continue.

The stronger driving force comes from the leading AI companies and giant tech stocks. The six major tech giants now account for about 35% of the total market capitalization of the S&P 500, with the information technology and communication services sectors contributing about 42% of overall profits in the second quarter, including NVIDIA (NVDA.US), Microsoft (MSFT.US), Apple (AAPL.US), Google's parent company Alphabet (GOOG.US, GOOGL.US), and Meta (META.US). The capital expenditures of large cloud service providers have somewhat compensated for the weakness in consumer spending.

Nancy Tengler, CEO of Laffer Tengler Investments, pointed out that the policy benefits of the "Big and Beautiful" bill regarding depreciation and R&D expense deductions are becoming evident, significantly improving corporate cash flow.

In the coming weeks, several key support factors for the market will be tested: On August 21, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting, which may reveal the interest rate outlook ahead of the September policy meeting and respond to conflicting signals regarding employment and inflation. On August 28, NVIDIA will announce its second-quarter earnings; if the guidance for third-quarter revenue falls below the market expectation of $52.6 billion, it may trigger volatility in the tech sector. On September 5, the August non-farm payroll report will be released. On September 11, the August CPI data will be published.

Rich Mullen, CEO of Pallas Capital Advisors, reminds that even if inflation remains stable in the near term, the possibility of tariffs pushing prices upward in the future cannot be ruled out If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in September, while tariff inflation rises in the fourth quarter, this will create a policy dilemma for the central bank