U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together, Nomura Securities: Core CPI Trends Moderately, Fed May Cut Rates in September

1. As of August 13th (Wednesday) before the US stock market opens, the three major US stock index futures are all up. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.27%, S&P 500 index futures are up 0.20%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.23%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 0.70%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.22%, the French CAC 40 index is up 0.49%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 0.86%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 0.51%, priced at $62.85 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 0.29%, priced at $65.93 per barrel.

Market News

S&P 500 breaks 6400 points for the first time! The AI boom sweeps through, with large tech stocks becoming the engine of the bull market. The S&P 500 index set a new closing high on Tuesday, standing above the 6,400-point mark for the first time at the end of the trading day. Similar to most of the bull market that began in October 2022, the latest wave of this rally is still driven by large tech stocks. Among them, Meta (META, US) and Palantir (PLTR.US) both rose over 2%, reaching historic closing highs. Jessica Rabe, co-founder of DataTrek Research, wrote in a research report on Tuesday: "Investors are once again favoring large US tech stocks over the overall large-cap stocks, and this trend has not yet become excessive." Jessica Rabe pointed out that since the market bottomed, the average increase of the top 20 stocks by market capitalization in the S&P 500 index has been 40.6%, far exceeding the benchmark index's increase of 27.9% during the same period.

Nomura Securities: Core CPI trends moderate, Fed may cut rates in September, with three consecutive cuts before March next year. Economists at Nomura Securities pointed out in their latest research report that the Federal Reserve may initiate a rate-cutting cycle at the September monetary policy meeting, with the first cut being 25 basis points, followed by two more cuts of the same magnitude in December and March of the following year. Although the current median expectation among market analysts for the Fed's policy path indicates a 25 basis point rate cut in the next three months, there are still differences among institutions regarding the specific timing of the operations. Some investment banks, including Nomura, believe that actual policy adjustments may be delayed until the end of this year. From the perspective of market pricing, global interest rate probability models show that investors have fully priced in the expectation of a rate cut in September and anticipate a second rate cut by the end of the year The 60% surge in U.S. auto insurance premiums over five years finally welcomes a "cooling period," but tariffs may reignite the flames. Economists are focusing on finding signs of price increases caused by tariffs in the monthly U.S. inflation data, but may overlook some good news: the soaring auto insurance costs have finally begun to stabilize and decline. Over the past few years, the cost of owning a car in the U.S. has risen significantly, putting pressure on car owners from multiple fronts. The average price of new cars has now reached $49,000, and the tariff policies of the Trump administration may push this price above $50,000. As new car prices rise, used car prices have also surged. Meanwhile, the application of advanced new technologies and other factors have driven up the costs of auto parts, maintenance, and repairs. However, the most significant increase has been in insurance costs: over the past five years, auto insurance premiums have risen by a cumulative 60%, with the average monthly premium reaching approximately $213.

Global capital migration! Non-U.S. stock markets attracted a record $13.6 billion in July, while U.S. stocks faced three consecutive months of selling. In July, global non-U.S. equity funds recorded the largest net inflow of funds in four and a half years, as investors adjusted their asset allocations due to concerns about the U.S. economic outlook, high stock market valuations, and a weakening dollar. Since the beginning of this year, as Trump's economic policies have diminished the attractiveness of the U.S. market, these funds have continued to receive investor favor. However, the accelerated inflow of funds in July indicates that the trend of diversification is strengthening, particularly towards Europe and emerging markets—regions benefiting from a loose monetary environment and improved growth prospects. According to LSEG Lipper data, global non-U.S. equity funds saw a net inflow of $13.6 billion in July, the highest since December 2021; meanwhile, U.S.-focused equity funds experienced $6.3 billion in redemptions during the same period, marking three consecutive months of outflows.

Weak demand and surging supply! IEA warns of an unprecedented supply surplus crisis in the global oil market next year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) latest report indicates that with slowing demand growth and continuously rising supply, the global oil market is facing an unprecedented supply surplus. Monthly data from the agency shows that global oil inventories are surging at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, a pace that even exceeds the average level during the pandemic in 2020. The growth rate of global oil demand in the next two years will be less than half of that in 2023, while supply continues to expand. The OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia, is accelerating the restoration of suspended production capacity, while the IEA has slightly raised its production forecast for non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries (mainly in the Americas) for 2026. "As the expected supply at the end of the year and in 2026 far exceeds demand, the balance of supply and demand in the oil market is becoming increasingly imbalanced," the IEA stated. "Clearly, some adjustments must be made to achieve market balance."

Individual Stock News

UCL.US reported Q2 revenue of $19.4 million, down 13% year-on-year, with net profit plummeting 80%. UCL reported a Q2 GAAP earnings per share of $0.02; total revenue was $19.4 million, a year-on-year decline of 13.3%, a decrease of $3.6 million; adjusted net profit (non-GAAP) was only $500,000, down 80% from $2.6 million in the same period last year; adjusted EBITDA was $1.4 million, a year-on-year decrease of 58%. The company has lowered its full-year revenue guidance to $85 million to $95 million (previously expected to be $95 million to $130 million), far below the market expectation of $96.25 million, primarily due to global macroeconomic challenges AI competition is too costly! CoreWeave (CRWV.US) Q2 losses surge, Q3 guidance disappointing. CoreWeave's revenue in the second quarter doubled year-on-year to $1.21 billion, better than the market expectation of $1.08 billion; adjusted net loss widened to $130.8 million, compared to $5 million in the same period last year, while analysts had previously predicted a loss of $96.3 million. CEO Michael Intrator stated, "We are rapidly scaling to meet unprecedented demand for artificial intelligence (AI)." The competitive landscape of expanding supply to meet demand will continue to pressure profitability. Intrator mentioned in a conference call with analysts that the operating profit for the third quarter is expected to reach $160 million to $190 million, while the market consensus is $192 million. Looking ahead, CoreWeave raised its full-year revenue guidance to $5.15 billion to $5.35 billion, while reiterating its capital expenditure and adjusted operating profit guidance.

Quantum computing leader Rigetti Computing (RGTI.US) Q2 revenue misses expectations, launches multi-chip quantum computer. In the quarter ending June 30, Rigetti Computing reported an adjusted loss per share of $0.13, compared to the market expectation of a loss of $0.04 per share. Total revenue was $1.8 million, down 41.9% year-on-year, which was below the expected $1.87 million. The company reported a net loss of $39.7 million for the quarter, including a non-cash loss of $22.8 million related to warrant derivatives and changes in the fair value of earned liabilities. Operating expenses were $20.4 million, resulting in an operating loss of $19.9 million. Rigetti significantly strengthened its financial position this quarter, completing $350 million in equity financing through an on-market issuance plan. As of June 30, 2025, the company had approximately $571.6 million in cash, cash equivalents, and available-for-sale investments, with no debt.

Qudian (QD.US) Q2 revenue plummets 93.5% year-on-year, will cease delivery business. Qudian's revenue in the second quarter was $490,000, down 93.5% year-on-year; under non-GAAP, the earnings per ADS were $0.26. The net profit attributable to Qudian shareholders was RMB 311.8 million (approximately $43.5 million), compared to RMB 99.8 million in the second quarter of 2024. Net interest and investment income increased by 392.3% year-on-year to RMB 440.5 million, mainly due to increased investment income in the second quarter of 2025. In the second quarter of 2025, the company used a net cash of $200,000 in operating activities. The operating loss was RMB 113.9 million, compared to RMB 57.4 million in the second quarter of 2024, mainly due to the gradual reduction of the company's business and increased depreciation and property tax expenses after the completion of the company's headquarters construction China Automotive Systems (CAAS.US) Q2 revenue increased by 11% year-on-year, raising full-year revenue forecast to $720 million. In the second quarter, China Automotive Systems reported revenue of $176.2 million, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%; earnings per share were $0.25, compared to $0.24 in the same period last year. In Q2, sales in Brazil increased by 49.4% year-on-year, accounting for 10.1% of total net sales. Gross profit was $30.5 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%; gross margin was 17.3%. Operating profit increased by 20.2% to $13 million, compared to $10.8 million in the same period last year. Management also raised the full-year revenue forecast for fiscal year 2025 to $720 million. As of June 30, 2025, the company held cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments of $135.3 million.

Musk: Tesla (TSLA.US) Austin Robotaxi service will be open to the public in September. Tesla's autonomous taxi (Robotaxi) service in Austin will be open to the public in September. Notably, Tesla recently received approval from Texas licensing and regulatory authorities, obtaining all necessary permits to expand its operations statewide in Texas, and will operate this service as a licensed transportation network company until August 2026. In June of this year, Tesla officially launched the Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, beginning to pick up the first passengers. The pilot service is initially available only to a small group of users, and the fleet size deployed is also limited.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts

Beijing time 22:30: U.S. EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending August 8 (10,000 barrels).

Beijing time 23:00: U.S. August IPSOS primary consumer sentiment index PCSI.

Next day Beijing time 01:00: 2025 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks on monetary policy.

Next day Beijing time 01:30: 2027 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on the U.S. economic outlook.

Earnings Forecast

Thursday morning: Cisco (CSCO.US)

Thursday pre-market: NetEase (NTES.US), Youdao (DAO.US), Canaan Inc. (CAN.US), JD.com (JD.US), Vipshop (VIPS.US), Weibo (WB.US)