The momentum of the U.S. retail stocks' counterattack is not over yet? Nike's return to Amazon leads the retail industry's valuation expansion

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, as the China-U.S. trade dispute continues to ease and the Trump administration's global tariff policy has significantly softened compared to its aggressive stance in early April, Wall Street is refocusing on retail stocks that were heavily impacted by tariffs. A recent research report from Goldman Sachs shows that the analysis team expects that as tariff pressures gradually dissipate, the performance outlook for the U.S. retail sector, dominated by Nike, Amazon, and Walmart, will become more stable. Valuation levels will no longer focus on the tariff dynamics of the Trump administration but will continue to depend on the optimization of different retail companies' channel and pricing strategies.

Goldman Sachs is particularly optimistic about Nike, the global sports product giant, which saw its stock price and fundamental expectations severely impacted in April. The institution has given Nike (NKE.US) a "Buy" rating, setting a 12-month target price of $85, and analyzed the differences in channel layout and pricing strategies for Nike sports products sold by retail companies such as Kohl’s, Academy Sports + Outdoors, and Foot Locker in its research report.

Since the stock price crash caused by Trump's reciprocal tariff policy—specifically since the year's lowest point in April—Nike's stock price has rebounded strongly by over 35%. The largest retail giant in the U.S., Walmart (WMT.US), has also rebounded significantly as the China-U.S. trade friction has cooled, with its stock price rebounding by over 25% during the same period. Target (TGT.US), Best Buy (BBY.US), Dollar General (DG.US), and Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS.US) have all achieved significant stock price rebounds.

Goldman Sachs pointed out that Nike recently reopened its official store on Amazon.com, listing about 90 products aimed at the mass market (most priced below $100 and primarily clothing) to reach a consumer group that values cost-effectiveness. At the same time, Nike is better managing the pricing and inventory clearance of value-oriented products through discounts that are significantly lower than those on other channels, thereby maintaining Nike's premium brand value and enhancing the value of its own DTC official website channel.

In contrast, Goldman Sachs believes that while wholesale partners' websites like Kohl’s and Academy sell most of the same Nike sports products at slightly higher original prices than Nike's official channels, their actual selling prices are generally lower due to deeper promotional discounts. Foot Locker has relatively less overlap with products from Nike's official store on Amazon, indicating differences in product positioning. Goldman Sachs believes that Nike's platform channel strategy will optimize its sales structure aimed at the value-oriented market, and the competitive landscape of the global retail industry will adjust accordingly, which will be reflected in the company's valuation. However, potential risk factors such as a slowdown in the Chinese market, intensified industry competition, pressure on wholesale channels, inventory management and promotional risks, and a slowdown in profit margin recovery should also be monitored.

Goldman Sachs' latest retail research: Pricing, promotions, and certain product overlap reflected in Nike's return to Amazon.com store

On August 1 local time, Nike opened its official store on Amazon.com, the world's largest online sales platform, listing 90 products (including 26 footwear items); 64 clothing and accessories). According to Goldman Sachs' channel survey data, Kohls.com currently sells 68 of these 90 products (overlap rate 76%; 23 pairs of shoes; 45 clothing and accessories), Academy.com offers 60 of the products (overlap rate 64%; 23 pairs of shoes; a total of 35 clothing and accessories), while Footlocker.com sells 33 of the almost identical types of products (but the overlap rate is only 37%; 9 pairs of shoes; 24 clothing and accessories).

Goldman Sachs' survey shows that Nike has launched about 90 products on the Amazon platform, of which about 53 are discounted. The prices of these products on Amazon are slightly lower than those of the same products on Kohl’s, Academy, and Footlocker websites. However, it should be noted that when considering discounts, Nike's actual promotional strength on the Amazon platform is lower than that of other retailers.

It should be clarified that Goldman Sachs' channel survey regarding Academy refers to the overlap rate of Nike's products sold on the Amazon e-commerce platform with Academy's product catalog (rather than the proportion of Academy's total products sold on Amazon); at the same time, Academy's overall SKU count on the platform is relatively higher. The average pricing of Nike's store on Amazon.com is slightly lower than that of the aforementioned three wholesale partners' websites without discounts, but when discounts are taken into account, the actual pricing level of Nike's store on Amazon is higher than the prices offered by these retailers for the same products.

Overall, Goldman Sachs' strategy team believes that Nike's launch of an official e-commerce store on Amazon.com provides the company with a new channel to reach a consumer group that prefers cost-effectiveness. According to Goldman Sachs' channel survey, at least in the initial stage, the company has adopted a targeted strategy regarding the types of products offered to this channel. Goldman Sachs noted that among the 90 products launched, most are priced below $100, and the proportion of clothing in the product mix is relatively high. In addition, Nike's initial promotional intensity on the Amazon e-commerce platform is also far lower than that of other large sales channels, which to some extent indicates that this channel is expected to give Nike a higher level of autonomy in its product and inventory clearance strategy aimed at the mass market, and allow Nike to continue enhancing the premium brand image of its own DTC official website channel. Therefore, Goldman Sachs gives Nike a "buy" rating, with a 12-month target price set at $85, indicating a bullish outlook