To catch the "last train" of electric vehicle subsidies, Tesla's orders in the U.S. surge

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, entering the third quarter, the U.S. electric vehicle market has seen a surge in car purchases. Tesla (TSLA.US) on Monday extended the estimated delivery time for its most popular model, the Model Y, from the previous one to three weeks to four to six weeks, indicating a significant increase in orders. However, there is a key reason behind this: this is the last quarter for U.S. buyers to enjoy a federal tax credit of up to $7,500 for vehicle purchases. This benefit was eliminated in the tax and spending bill signed by Trump on July 4.

The market is generally concerned that as the subsidy officially expires at the end of September, the prices and demand for electric vehicles in the fourth quarter will face uncertainty. Tesla CEO Elon Musk warned during the second-quarter earnings call that the company may experience several "difficult quarters," especially in the context of losing subsidies and the rapid advancement of autonomous driving technology.

So far this year, Tesla's global sales have continued to be under pressure. In the second quarter, U.S. electric vehicle sales were approximately 311,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 6%, with Tesla accounting for 144,000 units, a nearly 13% decline year-on-year. Globally, first-quarter sales were 334,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 13%, and second-quarter sales were 384,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%. Wall Street generally expects global deliveries in the third quarter to reach 430,000 units, still below the 463,000 units expected in the third quarter of 2024. Notable Tesla tracking analyst Troy Teslike estimates sales could reach 440,000 units and points out that due to the impending expiration of the tax credit, U.S. demand will remain strong in the short term, with production capacity potentially becoming a bottleneck.

Despite the pressure on sales, Tesla's stock price has recently performed strongly. On Monday, the stock price rose by 2.8%, closing at $339.03, achieving a four-day winning streak and setting a new closing high since the end of June. On the same day, the S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones index fell by 0.25% and 0.45%, respectively. Technical analysts indicate that if the stock price stabilizes above $338, it is likely to challenge $368.

Meanwhile, Tesla is actively expanding its energy business. The company has applied for a power supply license from the UK energy regulator Ofgem, and if approved, it will be able to compete directly with major energy suppliers in the UK. Tesla's application in the UK was submitted by Tesla Energy Ventures Limited, headquartered in Manchester. In addition to its electric vehicle business, the company also operates battery storage and solar energy businesses, with related revenue growing by 93% year-on-year last year, reaching $1.5 billion. Tesla is currently providing electricity services to residential users in Texas.

However, Tesla also faces challenges in the European market. Data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders shows that Tesla's new car registrations in the UK plummeted by 60% year-on-year in July; overall sales in Europe decreased by 22% year-on-year in June. Analysts generally believe this is related to Musk's controversial political stance and the rise of its competitors.

Industry insiders point out that the surge in demand in the third quarter may have a preemptive effect, and market performance after the subsidy ends still needs to be observed. Whether Tesla can withstand the decline in car sales through the expansion of autonomous driving and energy businesses will be a key focus for investors