U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three major stock index futures rise together, with CPI and other economic data set to make a significant impact this week

1. As of August 11 (Monday) before the US stock market opens, the three major US stock index futures are all up. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.29%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.14%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.05%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 0.42%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.27%, the French CAC40 index is down 0.42%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.28%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 0.44%, priced at $64.16 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 0.42%, priced at $66.87 per barrel.

Market News

The US July CPI and other economic data will be released this week! The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule may be reshaped. Apple (AAPL.US) announced an additional investment of $100 billion in the US, boosting tech stocks and bringing US stocks back near historical highs. Last week, the S&P 500 index rose 2.5%; the Nasdaq Composite Index closed at a new high, with a cumulative increase of nearly 4%; the Dow Jones index rose about 1.4%. Currently, the market is betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates multiple times this year. The US July CPI to be released on Tuesday is undoubtedly the focus of economic data this week. Investors will also closely monitor the latest developments in the US July PPI, retail sales, and consumer confidence. In terms of corporate earnings, only 8 companies in the S&P 500 index will release their latest earnings reports this week, with CAVA (CAVA.US), Cisco (CSCO.US), and Deere & Company (DE.US) being the highlights.

The return of former FDA vaccine regulator Prasad has led to a collective decline in biotech stocks. Vinay Prasad, the former US FDA vaccine regulator who resigned amid controversy, will return to the agency to lead the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research. This news caused the stock prices of several biotech companies to decline in pre-market trading on Monday. Prasad previously faced controversy for decisions such as ordering the halt of Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT.US) Duchenne muscular dystrophy gene therapy (due to patient death incidents) and restricting the use of Moderna (MRNA.US) and Novavax (NVAX.US) COVID-19 vaccines, leading to his resignation in July under conservative opposition. As of the time of writing, biotech stock Capricor Therapeutics (CAPR.US) is down nearly 9% in pre-market trading, Sarepta is down nearly 5%, and there are significant declines in Replimune (REPL.US) and vaccine manufacturers Moderna and Novavax The market reaction is significant.

Bank of America’s latest survey: A record proportion of fund managers believe U.S. stocks are "too expensive"! According to the latest monthly fund manager survey released by Bank of America, as U.S. stocks have rebounded sharply since their low in April, the proportion of investors who believe U.S. stock valuations are too high has reached a historic record. The data shows that about 91% of respondents believe current U.S. stock valuations are high, marking the highest level since 2001. Although the allocation ratio of investors to global stock markets has risen to its highest level since February, the survey indicates that 16% of investors still underweight U.S. stocks. Currently, overall market sentiment has improved to the most optimistic level in six months, even surpassing the levels before U.S. President Trump's tariffs caused market turmoil and heightened recession fears. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett pointed out that investor expectations for a hard landing in the economy have dropped to the lowest level since January of this year.

Goldman Sachs: 64% of tariff costs are borne by U.S. companies, consumers only bear 22%. An analysis by Goldman Sachs shows that so far, the costs of tariffs have mainly been borne by U.S. companies. Scott Lincicome, Vice President of Economic and Trade Affairs at the Cato Institute, shared Goldman Sachs' "preliminary" analysis results on Twitter. The data shows that as of June, 64% of the tariff costs were absorbed by U.S. companies, 22% were borne by U.S. consumers, and the remaining 14% were absorbed by foreign exporters. Goldman Sachs estimates that as of June, tariffs have caused the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index to rise by 0.2 percentage points; for the remainder of this year, tariffs will push core PCE up by another 0.66 percentage points. Goldman Sachs stated that this means the year-on-year core PCE inflation rate will reach 3.2%, "but excluding the impact of tariffs, the underlying inflation trend will moderate to 2.4%."

Bitcoin poised to challenge historical highs, speculative bulls dance with interest rate cut expectations, year-end target price set at $150,000. Due to the continued positive macroeconomic outlook supporting risk assets including cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin is expected to break its historical high this month. According to CoinGecko data, the rebound over the weekend helped offset last week's losses, with Bitcoin rising 4.5% since the opening on Saturday, trading just below the historical high of $122,838 set on July 14. Meanwhile, data from the derivatives platform Coinalyze shows that open interest has increased by 7,834 Bitcoin, and the buying volume of spot and perpetual contracts has surged, indicating that this round of increase is mainly driven by speculative long positions. Sean Dawson, head of research at the on-chain options platform Derive, stated that based on volatility data, Bitcoin is expected to reach $150,000 "by the end of the year."

Individual Stock News

Niu Technologies (NIU.US) Q2 revenue surged 33.5%, net profit turned profitable, sales in the Chinese market soared 53.6%. Niu Technologies reported Q2 revenue of RMB 1.2557 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33.5%, with a gross margin of 20.1% and a net profit of RMB 5.9 million, successfully turning profitable. Among them, revenue from the Chinese market grew by 45.4% year-on-year, reaching RMB 1.0569 billion, with the number of domestic stores increasing to 4,304, and the overseas sales network covering 53 countries Based on the continuous increase in new products and the arrival of the traditional sales peak season, Niu Technologies expects third-quarter revenue to reach between 1.433 billion and 1.638 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40% to 60%. The company will continue to deepen technological inclusiveness, promote continuous growth in performance through product innovation and channel optimization.

C3.ai (AI.US) restructures global sales team after cutting revenue expectations by 33%. Following last Friday's announcement of a preliminary revenue forecast lowered to $70.2 million to $70.4 million (approximately 33% lower than the previous midpoint expectation), C3.ai restructured its global sales and services department, including appointing new leadership. Last Friday, C3.ai reported preliminary first-quarter revenue of approximately $70.3 million, far below analysts' expectations of $104.3 million for the quarter ending July 31. C3.ai stated that the current Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) operating loss is expected to be between $124.7 million and $124.9 million, while the non-GAAP operating loss is expected to be between $57.7 million and $57.9 million. As of July 31, the company held cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities totaling $711.9 million.

To gain U.S. approval, it is reported that NVIDIA (NVDA.US) and AMD (AMD.US) will pay 15% of their AI chip revenue from China. A U.S. official revealed on Sunday that NVIDIA and AMD have agreed to pay 15% of their revenue from sales of advanced computing chips to China to the U.S. government. The agreement involves advanced chips used for artificial intelligence (AI) applications, including NVIDIA's H20 and AMD's MI308. The government led by President Donald Trump suspended the sale of H20 chips to China in April, but NVIDIA announced last month that the U.S. indicated it would allow the company to resume sales and hopes to start shipping soon. Another U.S. official stated last Friday that the Department of Commerce has begun issuing licenses for the sale of H20 chips to China.

Behind Apple's (AAPL.US) delay of key Siri upgrade: AI voice control system strategy emerges. Apple has delayed a key upgrade for Siri this year, raising public concern about the company's lag in artificial intelligence (AI) development and triggering internal reform initiatives. However, the most significant setback is not the much-anticipated feature of Siri, which allows it to extract personal data from messages, emails, and photos to complete complex tasks. Insiders revealed that the real breakthrough lies in the improved App Intents system, which will allow Siri to fully control third-party and Apple applications solely through voice commands. Theoretically, users can locate, edit, and send photos, comment on social media, shop online, or log into various services without touching the screen.

The new favorite of 18 million South Korean cryptocurrency traders! $3.6 billion Ethereum "vault" BitMine (BMNR.US) sees retail investors buy $260 million in stock. The Bitcoin mining company BitMine, listed in the U.S., has become the most favored foreign stock among South Korean retail investors, who are always eager for high-risk, high-return investment opportunities in the cryptocurrency market. This publicly listed company, supported by Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, has recently completed a business transformation from Bitcoin mining to operating a digital asset reserve platform—its business model primarily involves continuously increasing and holding cryptocurrencies through the listed entity Data from strategicethreserve.xyz shows that the company currently holds $3.6 billion worth of Ethereum, making it the largest Ethereum reserve institution in the world. The price of Ethereum has surged, leading the overall rise in cryptocurrencies, briefly breaking through the $4,300 mark, reaching a new high since December 2021.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 23:00: U.S. July New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations (%).

Beijing time 22:00: U.S. President Trump holds a press conference in the White House briefing room regarding "Crime Governance and Urban Beautification."

Earnings Forecast

Tuesday morning: Oklo (OKLO.US), Yala Technology (YALA.US)

Tuesday pre-market: Sea (SE.US), Tencent Music (TME.US), Pony.ai (PONY.US), Huya (HUYA.US)