Bitcoin is poised to hit a historic high, with speculative bulls dancing alongside interest rate cut expectations. The year-end target price is set at $150,000

According to Zhitong Finance APP, due to the continued improvement in the macroeconomic outlook supporting risk assets including cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin is expected to break its historical high this month. According to CoinGecko data, the rebound over the weekend helped offset last week's losses, with Bitcoin rising 4.5% since the market opened on Saturday, trading slightly below the historical high of $122,838 set on July 14. Meanwhile, data from the derivatives platform Coinalyze shows that open interest increased by 7,834 Bitcoin, and the buying volume of spot and perpetual contracts surged, indicating that this round of increase is mainly driven by speculative long positions.

Sean Dawson, research director at the on-chain options platform Dervie, stated, "This bull market still has plenty of fuel." He added that based on volatility data, Bitcoin is expected to reach $150,000 "by the end of the year."

It is worth mentioning that after last week's surge in tech stocks, cryptocurrency prices also climbed. This wave of increase coincided with investor optimism about a potential interest rate cut in the U.S. and a weakening dollar. Ecoinometrics, an intelligence communication focused on the crypto field, stated last Sunday that the increased correlation between the Nasdaq index and Bitcoin "explains the recent price movements," adding, "Bitcoin may be digital gold, but it trades more like a risk-on asset. What really matters is whether the market is in a risk-on or risk-off state."

Currently, market attention is turning to the U.S. July CPI data to be released on Tuesday. If the inflation data is lower than expected, it may strengthen expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as early as September. Economists expect the U.S. July CPI to rise 2.8% year-on-year, up from 2.7% in June. The core CPI for July, excluding food and energy prices, is expected to rise 3% year-on-year, up from 2.9% in June; the July core CPI is expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, up from 0.2% in June.

Sean Dawson stated, "We are seeing multiple macro and political factors overlapping, which could drive Bitcoin prices to soar. Crypto assets typically perform very well in a low-interest-rate environment." However, some traders are taking defensive positions. Sean Dawson pointed out that the demand for put options has increased, indicating that the market's concerns about a potential unexpected rise in inflation data are heating up. He added that this could trigger a "mini panic" and lead to a "sharp decline."