Trump: Tariffs have had a huge positive impact on the U.S. stock market

On Friday, U.S. President Trump warned that U.S. courts should not obstruct his tariff policy, stating that the policy has had a "positive impact" on the U.S. stock market, and obstructing the tariff policy could trigger a severe economic recession. The S&P 500 maintained a 0.7% gain, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 262 points for a 0.6% increase, and the NASDAQ rose 180 points, gaining over 0.8%.

Trump posted on the Truth Social platform on Friday morning, defending the tariffs:

If some radical left-wing court makes an unfavorable ruling against us at this critical juncture, trying to undermine or disrupt the largest flow of capital, wealth creation, and national influence in U.S. history, it will leave us unable to recover and unable to repay these enormous sums of money and honor.

This would be a replay of 1929, a Great Depression.

If the courts truly oppose America's wealth, power, and influence, they should have ruled that way at the outset of the case. Our country may never again possess such greatness, and the court's actions would place the entire nation in a perilous situation akin to 1929, from which America would be utterly unable to recover from this judicial tragedy.

Trump's remarks come as the U.S. Federal Appeals Court is debating how to handle his tariff policy. The legality of the White House's tariffs is currently being challenged, with critics arguing that these measures may exceed the emergency powers granted to the president by Congress in the 1970s.

Former House Speaker Paul Ryan stated in an interview this week that the U.S. Supreme Court may ultimately rule that the tariffs imposed by Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act passed by Congress in 1977 are invalid.

However, Alan Wolff, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, stated in a report this week that if the tariffs are ruled invalid, handling the refunds will involve extremely cumbersome administrative procedures. "This would be a decision that cannot be completely reversed."

Market Reaction

Trump stated that the tariffs have had a tremendous positive impact on the U.S. stock market. However, in fact, every time the White House has relaxed its stance on tariffs this year, the stock market has reacted positively; conversely, when Trump has taken a stronger stance on increasing import tariffs, the stock market has reacted negatively. For example:

In early April this year, when Trump announced a 90-day delay on the originally scheduled "liberation day" tariffs, the NASDAQ Composite Index surged 7% within minutes, and other major indices also saw significant gains that week.

Subsequently, whenever Trump eased threats of tariffs on specific industries, the relevant sectors experienced substantial rallies. For instance, when the semiconductor import tariff policy was relaxed, companies like AMD, Marvell, and Apple saw strong stock price increases, as the tariff exemption was expanded to any company that announced it would add manufacturing in the U.S.

However, analysts point out that these gains are often difficult to sustain, as Trump frequently changes his stance on tariffs. Recently, market fluctuations regarding tariff news have also become relatively stable, with investors generally believing that Trump's position is always full of uncertainties