U.S. Stock Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Rise Together as Tariffs Take Effect, Triggering Stagflation Alarm on Wall Street

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of August 8 (Friday), U.S. stock index futures are all up before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.30%, S&P 500 futures are up 0.38%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.35%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 0.04%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.09%, the French CAC 40 index is up 0.20%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 0.16%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 0.58%, priced at $64.25 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 0.65%, priced at $66.86 per barrel.

Market News

U.S. Earnings Season Trapped in "Perfectionism": Investor Patience Dwindles, Slight Performance Misses Lead to Ruthless Sell-offs. During the second quarter earnings report period, the market's punishment for companies that fail to meet Wall Street expectations has been harsher than usual. Julian Emanuel, head of Evercore ISI's equity, derivatives, and quantitative strategy team, pointed out that more than two-thirds of S&P 500 constituent companies have disclosed earnings reports, and those that missed both earnings per share and sales expectations saw an average single-day decline of 7.4%, significantly higher than the usual 3.2% decline over the past five years. Even if a company only misses one metric while exceeding another, its stock price decline is still above average. This means that companies whose stock prices can rise on the first trading day after earnings release are almost exclusively those that meet both earnings per share and sales expectations.

JPMorgan's "Super-Dovish" Prediction: The Federal Reserve May Cut Rates Four Times Starting in September. JPMorgan currently predicts that, given signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market and risks surrounding Trump's latest Federal Reserve appointments, the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at its meeting in September, earlier than the previously predicted December. JPMorgan stated that current risks indicate that rate cuts may come sooner, followed by three additional cuts of 25 basis points each, after which there will be an indefinite pause.

Tariff Implementation Triggers Stagflation Alarm on Wall Street, Changing the Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Path? As the effects of the new round of tariff policies gradually become apparent, Wall Street strategists are issuing warnings: the U.S. economy is sliding into a stagflation quagmire, which may severely limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates. Multiple economic indicators show that the U.S. is about to face a dilemma of high inflation and weak economic performance. Strategists warn that the comprehensive tariff policy implemented by the Trump administration on Thursday may overturn market expectations, as price pressures are transmitted to consumers, leading to a sharp rise in inflation risks Apollo Global Management Chief Economist Torsten Slok stated, "The market has strong expectations for interest rate cuts, but the upward risk of inflation cannot be ignored."

Divergence in Fed Rate Cut Expectations Intensifies: Bostic Warns Tariffs May Lead to Long-Term Inflation, Maintains Expectation of One Rate Cut This Year. Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated that he still maintains the expectation of a possible rate cut this year, but emphasized the need to focus on the potential impact of the Trump administration's tariff policy on inflation. Bostic pointed out that the most critical question currently is whether the price increases caused by tariffs are a "one-time event" or will trigger more lasting structural changes. He candidly expressed skepticism about "whether this round of tariffs fits the typical characteristics of one-time, temporary inflation."

Trump Team Seeks Powell's Successor, Waller Reportedly Top Candidate for Fed Governor. Sources indicate that Waller is willing to formulate policies based on forecasts rather than existing data, and has a deep understanding of the Federal Reserve system, which has left a strong impression on Trump's advisors. Sources revealed that Waller has met with the presidential team to discuss the position but has not yet met with Trump himself. Sources also disclosed that former Fed official Kevin Warsh and current White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett are also vying for the position. Powell's term as Fed Chair will end in May 2026.

How Can the U.S. Economy Achieve 3% Growth? UBS: Capital Expenditure, Labor Improvement, and Fiscal Adjustment Are Key. UBS's latest research report indicates that the U.S. economy is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 3% in the coming quarters, with this optimistic expectation primarily based on three pillars: strengthened capital expenditure, structural improvements in the labor market, and fiscal policy adjustments. According to UBS U.S. Treasury Secretary advisor Joseph Lavorgna's analysis, capital expenditure has achieved significant growth of 13%-14% in the first half of the year, and with the continued stimulus from tax incentive policies (such as 100% expensing of capital expenditures and building structures), this growth momentum is expected to continue into the second half.

Individual Stock News

Tesla (TSLA.US) Dissolves Dojo Supercomputer Team, Will Abandon In-House Chip Strategy in Favor of External Collaboration. According to informed sources, Tesla is dissolving its Dojo supercomputer team, and the team leader will also be leaving, a move that overturns the automaker's efforts to develop in-house chips for autonomous driving technology. Informed sources stated that Peter Bannon, who leads the Dojo project, is about to leave, and CEO Elon Musk has ordered the termination of the project. Informed sources indicated that Tesla plans to increase its reliance on external technology partners, including obtaining computing resources from NVIDIA and Advanced Micro Devices, and choosing Samsung Electronics for chip manufacturing. This decision marks a significant shift for Tesla after years of project preparation.

Chen Lifang Responds to Trump's Resignation Demand: Receives "Full Support" from Intel (INTC.US) Board, Will Clarify "Misinformation." Intel CEO Chen Lifang stated that he has received the full support of the company's board, marking his first response to U.S. President Donald Trump's call for him to resign due to a conflict of interest Chen Liwu stated in a letter to employees posted on Intel's website that he has contacted the White House to clarify "misinformation" regarding his resume. On Thursday, Trump posted on social media calling for Chen Liwu to resign on the grounds of alleged conflicts of interest, bringing new turmoil to a company already struggling to stop losses and maintain competitiveness in the era of artificial intelligence.

"America's only rare earth player" MP Materials (MP.US) Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with praseodymium and neodymium production soaring by 120%. The financial report shows that MP Materials' Q2 revenue increased by 84% year-on-year to $57.4 million, surpassing the market expectation of $46.7 million; the adjusted loss per share was 13 cents, better than the market expectation of a loss of 19 cents per share. The company's rare earth mine saw a nearly 45% increase in rare earth concentrate production in Q2, reaching 13,145 tons; the production of compounds made from the two most popular rare earth elements in the U.S. manufacturing sector—neodymium and praseodymium—jumped nearly 120% to 597 tons. As of the time of writing, MP Materials' stock rose over 9% in pre-market trading on Friday.

Pinterest (PINS.US) Q2 revenue growth of 17% fails to mask profit miss and stagnation in North American user growth. The financial report shows that the company's Q2 revenue grew by 17% year-on-year to $998 million, exceeding the market expectation of $976 million. The platform's global monthly active users increased by 11% year-on-year to 578 million, far exceeding the expectation of 553 million. The adjusted earnings per share were $0.33, below the consensus expectation of $0.36 from analysts. User growth in the company's core profit markets—the U.S. and Canada—has stagnated, with Q2 monthly active users in the U.S. and Canada at 102 million, unchanged from the previous quarter. As of the time of writing, Pinterest's stock fell over 12% in pre-market trading on Friday.

Toyota (TM.US) and Honda (HMC.US) mired in policy fog: $12.5 billion auto tariff hangs over them, pricing decisions are precarious. Toyota and Honda now expect to bear a combined impact of over $12.5 billion this year. However, the uncertainty of policy details and constantly changing assumptions means these forecasts could change at any time. This also makes it more difficult for automakers to decisively implement price increases and other measures. The problem is that companies and investors have to fill in many critical gaps when making these predictions. Although the U.S.-Japan trade agreement reduced the threatened 27.5% tariff on Japanese auto imports to 15%, the agreement has not yet formed a written document, and details may still change.

Demand for AI chips remains strong, TSMC (TSM.US) July revenue increases by 26%. TSMC, the world's largest chip foundry, announced on Friday that its July revenue reached NT$323.2 billion (approximately $10.8 billion), a year-on-year increase of 26%. This growth trend further confirms that investment in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector is accelerating. As the preferred chip manufacturer for AI hardware suppliers like Nvidia and AMD, TSMC's performance aligns closely with analysts' expectations of a 25% revenue growth in the third quarter

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

At 22:00 Beijing time, 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will deliver a speech